Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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12z GFS still not caving with 50-50 push. Probably get a good run here. It’s all alone right now though. Check out differences between Icon and GFS at only 93 hours. .
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Main issue right now is the lead TPV wave that sets up or confluence. Last couple cycles other data not pushing it into classic 50/50 region. The farther SE this energy pushes the colder and snowier the models will be. Check out differences between 6z GFS - 00z EURO - 00z CMC .
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I’m a snow addict, I’m always worrying haha, was just pointing it out after seeing OP/EPS. .
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Sloppy phase on euro a bit concerning. There’s a bunch of EPS scenarios (including control) where that lead southern vort escapes and then you’re relying on whether or not the main vort can close off in time. Too early to get too worried about that though. Just happy it showed a storm at this range .
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Meanwhile the Ukie is dumping all the energy out West like the data was showing few days ago and CMC overwhelms the pattern with the lead wave. We are 7-8+ days away. So temper expectations and don’t fret the details. Just keep hoping you see it he same general setup around 144 hours with the 50/50 and main S/W behind it. We’re still at the range where everything can go poof. I honestly don’t really care what the Ukie shows beyond 96 hours unless it gives us a blizzard, just posting for a reality check .
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CMC showing major improvements with 50/50 as well. This goes ape around NE, might be a little messy. Improvements are 100x tonight though. .
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Buffalo might as well be Antarctica if this run verified .
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Give me 12z Icon confluence with 12z Euro shortwave ftw .
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Let’s hope the euro is having issues dealing with the western energy/ridge, ugh… .
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I said close the blinds if that ridge doesn’t shift E. 18z GEFS shifted it east. Let’s see if guidance continues to trend that way. Gotta hope we keep seeing that and maybe beefed up confluence, or the Eve-ranger storm will cut/Ohio valley runner. I know you know this, but dump too much energy out west the SE ridge will flex in this pattern: Regardless, serious strong signal for a major storm/front for 22-23rd period. .
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Interesting here. Ridge position much farther E vs 12z .
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I agree, when I mentioned close the shades I was just basing it off the Euro OP that buries energy in SW with that bad ridge positioning. My point is if we don’t get that ridge to move East we have major problems. Ensemble looks better, but it’s still a close call with plenty still cutting. Maybe another period to watch 26-28th depending on whatever the Xmas eve wave does. .
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Until the ridge is in a better position out west might as well close the shades. Hopefully it’s just euro overdoing things and blowing up storms in the LR. .
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I’ll chase it as long as we see somewhat similar runs within 36 hours. I have a feeling with this H5 setup we will see more NW bumps. Hope I’m wrong. .
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No, you can’t just have one drink. .
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GFS added more separation between the main ULL and the one in the PAC. Need a little bit more, almost there. .
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Made that comment earlier and Will dug up some “tumbler” analogs. This one is extremely strange though. Euro is an absolutely fascinating evolution. Hopefully GFS is wrong .
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Makes sense, bottom line is this the reason we’re seeing GFS vs the world. Still can cut, but I doubt we see GFS complete shred scenario .
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Not to bombard the thread with photos, but here is 18z euro vs gfs. Look at the same region (wave S of Alaska). See the difference in positioning here. I’d bet a decent amount of money we see GFS cave at 00/6z. At 90 hours that wave is almost entering the same trough on the GFS. When it comes to the rest of the setup it looks pretty identical. Could it still cut? Sure, but as for shred city I think this kicker is what’s causing GFS to show it. .
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Look at difference with energy S of Alaska between 18z GFS and 18z EURO. Euro good bit slower/west. GFS ends up pushing that shortwave ahead fast like you mentioned, flow gets completely screwed up. Euro holding it back. Hopefully we see a correction at 00z. I believe we will, GFS is basically on an island here. .
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That’s the 18z btw. Wxbell having issues. GFS is only model out of all of them racing that PAC ULL east as fast as it does. It’s acting as a kicker. There really isn’t a difference I see in the 50/50. Really think the kicker is playing a role here with the shred .
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Here is what I mean, check out the difference out west. Canadian and Euro have that “Total Recall” famous scene look, while the GFS has, whatever you want to call this mess .
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GFS (18z does the same) only model that has the Pac low interacting with the main ULL. Yeah the 50/50 matters, but the kicker plays a major role too. .
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I can’t think of many events that had pac energy close off near the Rockies, stay closed off in the plains, then be forced under a block and redevelop to a coastal. I’m sure they exist just can’t think of one. Most events with closed ULLs dive out of Canada, like Dec 2000. Can you think of any similar setups? .
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Agreed. After the cutter should be much better cold air availability with -EPO. PNA issues still, so probably will still be dealing with less than ideal storm tracks, but maybe a decent pattern for front Enders/WAA events. .
