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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    I’d ignore the 12km and stick with the 3km, that being said it’s still a very good hit for a progressive system. If that fgen band forms as the NAM says someone inside the max axis would have a shot at 8” of heavy wet snow as it should promote heavy rates and good snow growth
  2. Heisy
    That’s one of the beefiest means you’ll see at this range on the EPS for day 8-10
  3. Heisy
    Quite the difference between 3km NAM and 12km heh....before last event tony (rainshadow) posted the model that’s supposed to be replacing the NAM eventually. It did a decent job. I’ll see if he can post it later today for this event
  4. Heisy
    Yea great run. Not quite, but starting to get bit of a consensus here.
  5. Heisy
    6z gfs slightly improved, bit more ridging thru 51hrs
  6. Heisy
    Before the last event on our Philly forum Tony (rainshadow) posted the model that’s supposed to be replacing the NAM soon. I forget what it’s called, but it did an amazing job. I think it begins with a C but idk lol. I’ll see if I can get a snow map off its recent run. I found it... so supposedly this will be the model replacing the NAM. This was its forecast before the last event
  7. Heisy
    The 00z eps is back to progressing the pattern the way I originally mentioned. Where the TPV heads east and the main low is behind that instead of being a front out ahead of it. This is a juicy mean for this time frame. Legit.
  8. Heisy
    What is the NAM nest? Like an ensemble of all the different resolutions?
  9. Heisy
    Icon is gonna have the day 7-8 overrunning beast event that the gfs has too FYI.
  10. Heisy
    I have it out, it looks like NAM to a degree with that heavy stripe
  11. Heisy
    Was really hoping to nab the cmc/rgem tonight. It’s not an all hope is lost type thing but it’s a big red flag
  12. Heisy
    Think this is just the NAM correcting to rest of guidance. It was obv a bit over amped. Once we get under 24-36 hours we can start seeing if the fronto band can get far enough N to get the heavier stuff into Philly/nyc.
  13. Heisy
    Vs
  14. Heisy
    Idk this looks better to me ?
  15. Heisy
    When it comes to the LR the euro will always be #1 imo. Frankly it sniffs these out much faster than other models. At this range though it is susceptible to ticks in either direction. Seems odd but happens. This really feels like an event where we see an uptick on the euro once inside 48 hours. Idk, just has that setup
  16. Heisy
    Fairly confident we’ll see uptick on euro as we get closer.
  17. Heisy
    Agreed. This is more of a 3-6 with pops to 8-9 if full potential reached
  18. Heisy
    I think that’s a half truth. From what I understand they use 6hr data from the previous run, and add some new data. I might be explaining this wrong but I had a convo with a met on phillywx. Regardless off runs are still updated and worth taking serious
  19. Heisy
    Amazing post! I’ve been looking at the fronto on the mesos. While out of range it highlights the potential. If this shortwave can neg tilt and the trough axis aligns perfectly this will be a classic heavy wet snow event for someone. Could be a lot of 30-35dbz type in the radar inside the max axis of the precip. Hope the trends continue because I love fat white out flakes regardless of how quick it moves
  20. Heisy
    You guys have the RPM frame or two prior to the one posted? I know wrong forum but I have no clue where to find the model. I need more happy hour love
  21. Heisy
    This won’t verify, but is crazy to see
  22. Heisy
    Haha yeah. Thing is it kind of happens not in the way I expected, but as long as it snows idc!
  23. Heisy
    The only caveat is if the tpv end up too far west then it runs inland, but I think the day 6 wave helps push the boundary east.
  24. Heisy
    Gfs crush job next week, wow what a run.
  25. Heisy
    18z Gfs might have a big overrunning event this run. We’re going to see different placement each run of the TPV near the conus border. Where it sets up & how much breaks off on the day 6 wave will dictate what happens toward day 8-11
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