Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Giving me an issue posting photos for some reason, hopefully shows up… .
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Nice hit on the weenie control, does just exactly what we’d want at H5 .
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Control looks fun at 156, once I saw that figured some EPS interest .
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Yea that’s definitely a thorn in this setup. Would like to see one of the globals show a hit by 12z tomorrow and some potential on EPS. OT but god I wish I could chase this LES in Buffalo. Of course it falls right near and around Xmas .
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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
Heisy replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You must be in heaven right now. Jealousy off the charts. I haven’t seen one flake here in Philly . -
Yes, if that southern vort slowed up a bit it could provide a nice front for a low to form as long as the diving S/W trends stronger/improved angle .
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It did try this run, but won’t come through. Feel like that left over energy down S messing things up. .
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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
Heisy replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It falls on Xmas or I would as well . -
GEFS sniffing it .
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Walt drag, my favorite Met, always says you always want the CMC on your side if a storm threat is real. I don’t have it out that far, but H5 did look decent. In general (based off GFS) We need slightly better spacing/separation in SE Canada, stronger S/W will help too. The PAC flow is racing E so it’s going to try to stop anything from developing, but not a horrible look. My fantasy team just got knocked out of finals because of Rodgers TD so I’ll take something to track right now to make my life meaningful haha .
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Hmm interesting changes. Noticed the 18z EPS/control strengthened this same clipper but didn’t say anything. Needs a little spacing improvement but could be something to track… .
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I will also add that the 00z NAM also in GFS camp fwiw .
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Uh, 00z icon joining GFS camp with TPV handling. I did not expect this at all .
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This was interesting because the GFS didn’t cave with the TPV positioning. In fact the 50/50 was probably in a better spot! The main wave just came in S too hot and heavy this run. This is why the GEFS is still really good because if anything the overall setup was better vs 12z lol I know some people will jump ship after that run, but it came inland for completely different reasons vs other models and would have easily been another monster hit if the main shortwave was weaker .
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GFS vs the world, we got this! .
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Hard to have any confidence with GFS handling of TPV when it’s on its own island right now. Stranger things have happened though. .
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This is an awesome post. Will be fun to see which one caves. My opinion based on watching model wars play out over 20+ years… If GFS does cave don’t expect a step down trend. It will go from what it just showed today at 12z to a full on cutter in one run because of how important this feature is. Get me 2 more runs, 18 & 00z with similar TPV handling and I’ll jump on board with GFS .
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Icon does it as well. We’ve seen model wars before, but this is a big one. Any gut feeling here? Feel like last nights Euro was more of a middle ground with the TPV handling. This is impressive for only 72-84 hours out. .
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Ukie dumps all the energy out west and doesn’t separate the TPV. Changes start early around 72-90 hours. One side is brutally wrong .
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Yep. Take a look at newest CMC run and put it in motion and watch our tpv feature. It heads down the EPO ridge and then literally just stops in its tracks in the NW. Guess we’ll find out soon… I was bored this morning and went back to see which model did better with the current ULL at day 6. GFS was way more accurate. .
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Exactly, that’s all I was pointing out. Interesting that there are such large scale issues regarding this feature at only 84-90 hours out. Was showing the Icon as an example of a model dumping it out west. .
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Def not trying to come off that way. Just observing the model runs that’s all. I’m rooting as hard as everyone else. I’ve spent 1000s of dollars chasing frozen water across the country. I’m a sicko. Not trying to come across negative my bad. Canadian doesn’t push the TPV east and it comes out as one ULL, going to be interesting which suit caves. Probably meet somewhere in the middle .
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Not sure what you guys are flaming me for? The GFS not caving is a good thing. Was just pointing out an important feature that is key to us getting snow. We’ve seen GFS occasionally win these battles, maybe we get lucky idk .
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Yea that model sucks, just pointing out the difference with its handling of the front running TPV which provides the confluence we will need. The Icon is in the 6z eps/control, CMC, Ukie camp. .
