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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    No other game in town, both GFS & CMC tried to sneak in a redeveloper around same time frame. GFS just too far south and CMC a little messy, but trackable I suppose. PAC flow is so fast it hurts our chances unfortunately .
  2. Heisy
    Honestly I would roll the dice with the pattern we saw earlier this month vs what I see on ensembles now. Obviously we need to fix the PAC and somehow get a a 50/50 to setup at some point. Ralph, we’ve been in this hobby for a long time. Patience is what makes snowstorms great. When we finally get a big storm here, and it will happen one day, the payoff will be great. I think by Jan 15-20 if we’re not tracking something in the medium range by then I’d start get worried. OT: I moved to Bensalem last April, right near where the tornado hit a few years back. I have a nice overhang open porch in front of my place. Can’t wait to experience a snowstorm here. .
  3. Heisy
    There will be at least one more chase worthy event by end of winter. Still, I’m tired of chasing events. Just want to stay home and enjoy a damn snowstorm already lol .
  4. Heisy
    Actually saw some pretty large scale changes on 12z OP CMC. It gets a TPV piece to drop SE with energy left over near Texas. Unfortunately the fast flow doesn’t let anything develop from it. Fishing for anything boys .
  5. Heisy
    Really ugly runs last night. Models delaying everything. Sigh. I should have went to Buffalo .
  6. Heisy
    I should have went to Buffalo .
  7. Heisy
    Seeing better confluence for this time period showing up. We just had the GFS fantasy run, CMC looks better as well. Probably not enough confluence/cold air but trending right direction at least? .
  8. Heisy
    Just posting an example of something to root for or look ahead. The hopeful “ridge killer” gets a little help from the N stream on the 18z GFS. It then leads to a decent confluence setup over SE Canada. La La land but something to keep an eye on as we get this time frame under 8-10 days. First image is the N stream dipping south combining with S vort to help usher in some colder air and knock down ridge. Second image is the setup it creates, which is pretty optimal imo. Note the tight isobars draped across the Lakes through NE .
  9. Heisy
    This is the first wave to take on the ridge, stronger on today’s euro. As tip mentioned there is a wave after this that right now probably favors interior, but def some interest on ensembles for your region. Imo root for this first wave to trend stronger for any follow up around 7-9th .
  10. Heisy
    I actually reserved a hotel morning before this event. It was near West Senaca. I cancelled last second. Was packed and everything. Turns out the location of my hotel probably got the least out of the entire region. They were too far S other day and too far N today. I would have been pissed. I don’t even chase snow well lol .
  11. Heisy
    Some potential Jan 8-10 if we can time a shortwave well. Can see it across the ensembles today Can see early signs here. Little signal for a 50/50, +PNA ridge. On the cmc ens you can see a little confluence over SE Canada/NE and a secondary wave near East Coast Like I said, probably will need a lead wave to lay down some confluence and cold for any follow up. Can sort of see that if you put the cmc/GEFS ensemble in motion .
  12. Heisy
    Definitely seeing some light at end of tunnel. All you can ask for at this point. There’s a few hits in the Jan 6-8 range for NNE on GEFS. One East Coast HECS on GEFS and a few hits mixed in on the CMC ensembles. Not bad Going to have to time shortwaves well. (More important down here in Philly), but need one wave to lay down some cold and have another timer and spaced properly .
  13. Heisy
    So I packed and reserved a hotel near Buff today. Some last second stuff came up so I can’t go. This winter blows! Lol. At least we got the Birds. .
  14. Heisy
    Hey all, I’m headed up soon. Staying (at least at the moment) at Country Inn near West Senaca. Doing last prep… Seems 12z NAM ticked S a touch .
  15. Heisy
    Euro still teasing us it seems .
  16. Heisy
    The old black and white maps still come out before anything else. It’s still out to sea unfortunately still ballpark as GFS .
  17. Heisy
    I’m headed to Buffalo tomorrow morning. Can’t take December shutouts might as well get my snow needs out of the way haha .
  18. Heisy
    So I think I’m headed up!! I have enough PTO time etc. Timing is bit of an issue. I work tonight until around 12-1, gotta wake up early get some food for the trip. Stock up emergency stuff. Im coming from Philadelphia so about 6 hour trip I imagine. Probably drive through some bad weather in NY state but should make it with plenty of time. Any hotel recommendations or locations in general at this stage? .
  19. Heisy
    George I appreciate your enthusiasm. I’ve been on these wx boards since 2001 Wright-weather days. There were times I felt how you are feeling now where I could will a snowstorm into occurring. Modeling have gotten more advanced. Is there a chance? Sure, but you want some data to show something. None of the models are even close right now. Good luck though. As long as you can handle the let down… .
  20. Heisy
    Anyone wanna split a place near Buffalo? .
  21. Heisy
    Looks like 6z EPS/control brought the trough E. Gonna need some big improvements today. Nothing else to really track though so we’ll see .
  22. Heisy
    00z euro is painstakingly close to a phase .
  23. Heisy
    Going in the wrong direction. Like I said though I’ll give it to 12z tomorrow for euro/cmc/gfs to show something. If we strike out by 2:30 tomorrow I’d have serious doubts anything comes from this wave. Still in pike, I’d give it around 10-15%. I wish this next event didn’t fall near Cmas I’d def chase to Buffalo. I’m so hungry for something man, and I’m in Philly which makes it even worst. .
  24. Heisy
    Good post as usual, I really think this one is going to rely on whether or not a piece of the TPV can drop down and phase with southern branch. That would help mitigate the PAC trying to race everything East. Think we really need Euro or CMC show a hit by 12z tomorrow .
  25. Heisy
    GFS took steps in the right direction, but not close yet. Couldn’t care less what this model shows anyway .
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