Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Yes, it’s more progressive H5. I thought 00z was too wrapped up anyway .
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6z euro did trend less tucked vs 00z. It’s more in line with like the Ukie and other models at H5 now. .
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I’m pretty sure I’d let one of you guys cut one of my fingers off for that euro run to verify. Staying up for EPS then ready to do it all over again tomorrow .
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This is a really odd H5 progression. It has a mix of December 2009 and March 01 idk I have no analogs that fit honestly .
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I’d probably let someone cut my pinky off for that euro run to verify .
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Forecasting would probably improve without the gfs existing .
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Philly gets 1888ed .
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One quick tidbit, the cmc handles the kicker energy like the euro does, idk if that is effecting anything but just pointing it out .
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Please. That’s all. .
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I feel like the southern vort slower this run, this might allow it more room to turn the corner, we’ll see .
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Man it better. It gets pretty lock steady inside 120 hours. The 18z euro was a blizzard here in Philly but I did think the SLP was faster which could potentially allow it to miss the phase in time if that trend continued .
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Euro Ai being out to sea like it is has me pretty shook. It’s been lethal imo. I really want to see it jump on board by 12z tomorrow if this thing is going to happen. I wonder if it’s resolution is causing issues with it for a wave like this .
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This has me completely shook .
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Yeah I’m not getting too excited yet. I want this at 120 hours for the EPS to look good. We’d have to survive until like 18z tomorrow. 24 hours to go. If it’s under 120 and euro and eps look good I’ll get excited .
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But it did speed up the SLP. If it gets too far E before the N stream catches up it’ll be a GFS like scenario. I need a dog .
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At work so just seeing the euro. It sped up the southern stream just a touch and you see the result. Man synoptically it won’t take much either way for this to be a GFS or blizzard version. Brutal event to track for me for how this winter has gone. Increased spread on 18z eps has me shitting bricks. I really hope the Ai comes back to at least giving us something FFS Of course here in Philly that was like a 30”+ run we were still in the ccb at 144 hours @Ji hold me
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Ai really has me shitting bricks lol. I wonder if it’s resolution hurting its ability with an event like this, but maybe that’s just weenie talk idk .
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GFS took a step in right direction, even as is its not horrible. If it was a little deeper with the trough and slower with SLP development it would have been great. It’s the gfs though it’s wrong, it’s always wrong .
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Icon looks good to me personally, it’s slower than 12z and more in line with other models with speed. That ULL was dropping in ala euro there. Isobars nice curve. Good start imo .
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This is probably its biggest test yet. .
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Interesting, lol there’s always a caveat it’s never easy .
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Any storms comparable at H5? Feb 6 2003 showing up on analogs but that shortwave was not even close to as strong as the 12z euro shows. .
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Frame before looks good too .
