Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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It’s all we have to look forward to right now tbh .
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Models really like flipping the switch around 20th…. We’ll find out if we get pump faked, but we take for now .
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Right in time for Ji vacation .
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And for Hoffman, colder anomalies building in lol .
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This. Even if the GFS was wrong it did tend to slowly adjust to trends. This new updated GFS is abysmal trainwreck and needs serious work. It’s been horrific this winter. .
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Check these differences out before day 4, lol what in the world .
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This model is horrible. This is 48 hours out dif between 18/00z GFS. My guess is now GFS won’t phase the s/w with tpv piece. .
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This also sort of aligns with MJO phase shift… HECS incoming Jan 25th .
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All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change. .
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GFS is phasing part of the TPV with that southern vort, miniature version of what euro was doing a few days ago. Do we buy? Idk? I bet GEFS will come in colder and with some weenie hits because of it though .
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GFS vs Euro in 50/50 land, lol .
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Biggest difference with GFS is it continues to close off a tpv in 50/50 land vs euro which basically has nothing .
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The only saving grace right now is the possibility of a +PNA/-EPO around Jan 20th. Ensembles kind of hinted at it today. We’ve been head faked multiple times this year though so hard to trust .
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Yesterdays 12z euro and a few runs of other models before that were phasing tpv energy with the southern vort creating a strong 50/50. When That didn’t happen and the euro caved I knew this threat was toast…. All we can do is move on to the next one. .
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Some winters are just like this. We will get a big snowstorm again, and when it happens it will be 100X more satisfying………..I hope right? .
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18z GFS backing off the 50/50 as well, once the 11th system didn’t phase with the TPV I knew we were boned .
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Can’t afford it right now or I would ha. It’s alright, it will snow again, maybe not this year, but one day…. And the wait will be worth it. .
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It got absolutely schooled with the 50/50 setup. .
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Taking a break from this hobby for my own sanity. Hopefully we see some flakes Sunday/Monday. I need to take a breather. This winter has been brutal .
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Went from having a crazy strong 50/50 yesterday to basically none. Got schooled by the GFS .
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We need cold to set in prior to a snowstorm most of the time. Our key here was getting some N Stream energy to rotate through NE & SE Canada to help build in HP/confluence. Aka a 50/50. This run you could tell was going to be really bad early on because the confluence is much farther N. It’s one OP run, but ugh…. .
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Not that good of a cold push this run, not looking good so far…gfs and cmc at least had some confluence, wouldn’t be shocked if this run brings the low to Chicago lol, hope I’m wrong as I usually am .
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Have to see what 00z does, but 18z eps/control caved towards 12z GFS/CMC with handling of day 5 wave and the tpv phase….could argue we might see the 00z euro come well N with long range system at 00z if that stays course .
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It really comes down to what happens with that Atlantic system day 5-6. Some models phase the TPV, others, like todays Canadian and GFS don’t. That’s going to create our 50/50. Here Is difference between 18z GFS and EURO. Focus on the Atlantic We’ll probably see this sorted out soon as it’s almost under 120 hours .
