Heisy

Icon

That sucks on the snow. I thought it would show more. Is that a stepback from 00z? Just noise, precip was slightly lighter on N edge but the bottom line is colder. More widespread snow this run

Nice hit on EURO. This winter full of surprises eh

Thursday more and more interesting. Fact that it falls during the week and starts around 6-7am right during rush hour makes it a NWS nightmare.

Ha sorta. Trust me we aren’t much better. In fact I’m planning to move to Worcester MA next fall if I can find work. I root for you guys to do well because that usually means I do well too. Especially with big events. Yeah occasionally we get clipped with Miller Bs that miss you, but meh.

Cmc looks icon-ish to me, at least supports high risks post about gfs scouring out the cad too fast.

Gfs for thursday, def colder than older runs.

Gfs hanging that ULL N of New England a bit longer this run...probably won’t be anything like Icon but might tick colder on a front end, maybe?

Its not just the snow but the ice We need this. Just one time before the warmup. Post winter depression about to kick in

00z icon is pretty cold for Thursday...icon has a cold bias in the medium range, but fwiw total thru run.

Don, statistically does having this strong of a recent -AO correlate to it coming back negative in a certain time period? Like you just said predicting it is almost impossible, but I guess I’m just asking do you think we could see one more blocking period in March?

Yes. As long as guidance shows any chance at 1 or 2 feet I’m in. Living in Philly could be the last chance for me to see snow for 9months. Call me crazy idc!

Does kuchera usually end up accurate at all up your way? It seems to love the south shore over the events. Pretty crazy difference between 10:1, think it’s like 20:1

Icon has some snow Thursday for northern sections. Colder than 12z, getting there. (This is total entire run)

Which supports the warm Tuesday—cold Thursday idea. There’s also more west coast ridging on GEFS vs eps. I wonder if that’s why the GEFS digs the wave deeper

Lmao we are the worst ok mattg?!

Yep, originally it seemed this weekend wave was going to help shift the ULL into a good spot to hold the cold air in. It does suck to lose our pack, but on a silver lining the cmc has lead the way with Tuesday so maybe we hang out hats on it....until of course it shows 50 degree rain storm at 00z

Imo if you want a colder Thursday system root for Tuesday to be as warm and rainy as possible Ha. The models are seemingly trending to slow down the exit of the tpv more and more. This leads to more phasing and boosts the ridge. While that hurts Tuesday it could help Thursday. This is interesting to me. The cmc, which has lead the way so far with not booting the tpv out barely has it moving on its 18z run. This looks like it would set a decent stage for Thursday but idk...and yes there is an 18z CMC (not rgem), but for some reason only this site has it

Nice. Feels like our last chance:( You know it has that depressing end of winter feel when a pattern breaks down, but when you take a step back you realize, hell, the end of the gfs run doesn’t even take us to March 1. With all the blocking this year who says we don’t have one more week or so of a decent pattern to work with in March.

Thursday ticked colder on eps

18zEps looked pretty good for Thursday

It looks like more phasing of the TPV lobe occurring. Gotta keep an eye on that.

...and also here was H5 18z euro @ 90. (End of run)

Since you’ve adopted me unfortunately for the next week. Here is 18z euro at end of the run. Ticked a bit N it seems for comparison here was 12z same period

Yeah the CMC has lead the way with this one where the TPV hangs back more and you see more phasing. Pretty large shifts today between the GFS/Euro camp towards that solution. Probably ends up being a blend