Heisy

How dare you leave out the JMA

12z Ukie gives us breathing room as it focuses WAA thump south. Fine by me at this range

There's also a shot at less than 10:1 too especially near the city at times if we see sneaky warm layers.

That was a nice shift on the ukie, starting to have some convergence in guidance here. The morning thump should be fun as hell.

Thanks for the info! WRT parallel euro, Someone linked it in the mid Atlantic forum earlier today, it had weatherbell graphics but I couldn’t locate it on the site... anyway... Any idea why the Para GFS, 00z Ukie, and some others have a “snow hole” over Philly? Is it because we miss out on the waa fronto thump and the coastal snows just NW? Maybe the h7 low tracking too far inland?

This storm should (crossing fingers) have a really fun 3-6 hours on the front end.

Is RPM an in house model? Is it available to public? Also what is the deal with the new parallel euro? It was a pretty big hit earlier today.

Winter ain’t dead yet with this look. Lala land but we take that cold air transport setup

I couldn’t make the trip in time so you guys will certainly jackpot. Radar looks good enjoy fellas!

For the city it is going to come down to where that initial fronto banding sets up. This storm won’t be able to give us snow from the coastal since the upper levels are t great. Think of PD2 where that initial fronto crushed DC and that area. I’d rather be north right now of where GFS has it so no complaints yet. That is a way we could get “screwed” though where initial waa banding is south thru Md line. Then mid levels toast for the coastal part. Places to the NW of city may be able to hold Onto snow longer from The coastal. It’s why you see the snow hole over us on the 18z para gfs

@Ji pretty wild DCs biggest snow of the year might come from a storm which was originally pegged to be practically a cutter in the medium-long range by the GFS. You almost never see those types of storms trend this way lol. This winter is goofy

I love your guys location for this one. With the exit side of thr trough trending more progressive the initial fronto aimed right at you. Should make for a fun morning. Usually big wide open gulf events like this you’d expect NAM to be N. It should cave soon

Are you mixing up the events? Tonight is a no go. This event is Thursday that has the chance for legit snowfall. Was thinking about starting my first thread for the event since were under 4 days, but idk haha

3km is a good shift SE of 12km With heights so that’s a positive Edit: well maybe slightly better. Gonna need a lot more though.

It’s been really good hinting at progression this winter. I agree. Probably because I’m a paranoid baby though.

Better map Snow comes in like a wall. Good stuff kuchera for comp.

10:1, kuchera is less I guess because of temps?

Yep, comes in at a good time too. Early morning. Wake up drink some coffee and watch the radar light up with some fronto banding. Nothing better. Let’s gooo

Yea on stormvista plots I have no clue what ptype either.

Haha, so you know the tale of the Heisy curse. I kind of broke it though on my recent chase to Dover NJ, finally didn’t get screwed

Hey fellas if I decide to come chase where do you think I set up shop? Roc?

We have a met on Philly forum that has done some stat verifications on it. It runs too cold. Overall it’s done a decent job this winter imo. Bottom line is you want it to be showing snow if there’s a chance. Just another piece of guidance though.

I’d say both heh. Heavier precip on lead edge. Stronger HP but Thicknesses a touch N since main wave is slightly stronger.Here was 1hr snow on last period. This was some heavy stuff

This looks like one of those 6 hour thumps. So it’s how much snow you can squeeze in that time period. You’re usually looking at 6-7” tops. Hopefully we can pull off a 3-6

Best part is it comes in hot and heavy