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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    The 12z Euro control leaves energy behind just like GFS. This is the progression we want models to show if we want a good snowstorm. We pray Wish we could get Op to show this .
  2. Heisy
    So starting to get a feel on how the pattern might progress. Guess a lot is going depend on how much energy is left behind the front day 7…. Here is euro, gfs, and Canadian at same hour. Can see GFS leaves most energy behind which formed that event day 10 or so. .
  3. Heisy
    Yea, this winter every time we get a good run on the models it’s in the day 9-10+ range and gone 6 hours later. Can we get lucky one time? .
  4. Heisy
    This is the time frame I’ve been talking about for days now. It’s after the cold arrives, just gotta hope we keep strong confluence. Window is there we just hope and pray. The 12z euro at end of run seemed to hint at same thing forming. .
  5. Heisy
    Still believe best hope is around Feb 4-7 once the tpv/cold air pushes east. For example Here is 6z GFS once that finally happens. The window is there once the SER is finally diminished temporarily. Probably will fail again, but nothing has changed imo. Just see if we can get lucky during that time frame. .
  6. Heisy
    Nah the pv phases with the low so there’s no confluence ahead… this is more in line with how other models/ensembles have been showing progression. .
  7. Heisy
    Run still may be able to produce if the wave out west is timed well with TPV dive. Need proper timing and spacing to get the confluence out ahead of any shortwave that comes east .
  8. Heisy
    As you can see vs 18z…. Knew it was a long shot it would hold, we’ll see what happens .
  9. Heisy
    00z gfs going with the other models with burying the energy in the west, so it will have a completely different solution than 18z…. Still could be good for early Feb we’ll see .
  10. Heisy
    I obviously hope 18z GFS is sniffing something other than glue. There are a few hits on ensembles for same time frame. Still, it could be rushing things, and the period Feb 4-10 still has legs. Hope is something can undercut the cold dome here. Though, maybe we get lucky and GFS is picking up on something before other models. .
  11. Heisy
    Finally a model run that times a shortwave right after a TPV dive. GFS and euro still differ, but GFS has been good lately at picking up the large scale features. Models really differ around day 7, few camps. 12z gfs had a mild version of this which impacted Ne, so we’ll see if we can build on this on 00z for once. .
  12. Heisy
    Euro did look interesting at end of run, control is basically the euro extended lol…. So we can dream…def a little window Feb 4-10 but we’ll see. Gotta keep the faith alive! .
  13. Heisy
    Biggest difference I see right now is cmc/euro bury/cutoff energy in west around day 6-7. So far GFS doesn’t do this. Probably why it speeds up everything. We’ll see… .
  14. Heisy
    00z GFS has the Cape storm .
  15. Heisy
    Much better Op run, figured 18z gfs Op was a blip considering ensembles. Cold about to push into our region .
  16. Heisy
    EPS improvements vs 00z .
  17. Heisy
    12z eps coming in a lot better than 00z. Actually have a really nice -epo with pv on our side… Roll this forward you could see how it def gives us a window of real opportunity .
  18. Heisy
    I think that period Cape posting is probably the wave that ushers in the cold and gets the lower heights over E/SE Canada. Hope I’m wrong, but either way if things hold maybe a solid window Feb 4/5-10 .
  19. Heisy
    That’s the way it works sometimes. Just keeping hope alive, this is GFS and CMC at day 10, we ain’t getting snow out of that pattern. .
  20. Heisy
    OP run, but eventually we get the PV north of us, this would be a more “workable” pattern rolling forward for any energy that will cut underbeath .
  21. Heisy
    Looks like next viable pattern won’t be until around Feb 5-10, everything getting dumped into SW before then, but it has to move east eventually right lol .
  22. Heisy
    I mean this is the pattern at time of the storm, not really a SECS look. We’re boned until blocking shows up or the PV somehow migrates far enough SE .
  23. Heisy
    Can you imagine eagles Dallas NFC chip? That would be amazing. Atmosphere would be insane .
  24. Heisy
    It’s more because energy keeps dumping into the southwest. Just a natural response to that .
  25. Heisy
    -EPO could push PV south, but -PNA and no blocking could make the SE ridge flex. Making it another decent pattern for Midwest/NNE as we head into Feb. Sigh… .
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