Heisy

One thing this storm threat taught us, the euro Ai model is fucking legit. As pissed as I am to say that. Really bad winter up here in Philly, maybe even top 10. Yea we had some events but we were teased with good patterns that couldn’t produce and close calls. Can’t control it, move on. .

In 1 day we went from this to that lol .

Go back to older runs which were really tucked and see what it did with that second wave .

The kicker is mucking it up more than people think. Yea the confluence is stronger on newer euro runs and that’s probably mainly why it’s trended SE, but that kicker doesn’t allow the shortwave to really have time to develop down S. One good thing there is maybe that shortwave isn’t being sampled perfectly yet since it’s farther out in time. I’ve been riding the Ai all winter, it’s been lock steady outside those 2-3 runs where it was really OTS .

Painful because we saw what could have been had everything gone right. Maybe the confluence relaxes next model suite. We need a desperate return at 00/6z. Look we could still score a 4-8” event with temps in the upper teens and low 20s, but that’s boring to me especially if someone is getting 1-2’ and it’s not me haha .

Look at all the models pretty much converging on what it’s been advertising… outside the two runs that were really out to sea it’s been lock steady. This thing is the future. It’s crushed every event. Yeah its resolution isn’t great so temps and precip aren’t its go to feature, but yea this thing is great. .

Mid Atlantic region is in a good spot because they’re far enough S to get some snow from the overrunning and then whatever the coastal produces. Could be a good event to chase if 20” is in the realm .

Yea if and when this fails I’m out .

Where 18z gfs puts the heavy snow honestly matches up pretty well with the EPS. I hate to say it, but brace yourselves for the 18z euro to come even farther SE. I said yesterday that as long as EPS held until 18z today I’d be all in. Of course it went SE in a big way at 12z. We almost made it lol. Meh, not interested in a scraper. Sorry to sound like the weenie that I am, but been around a while I just have that feeling. I think 18z euro is going to be a cliff jump run for the forums outside Mid Atlantic. Hope I’m wrong .

EPS def trended towards the OP there. Ugh .

I panicked I thought it was going to go wide right, a good bit farther E vs 6z because it was faster with shortwave .

This hobby sucks .

Southern vort stronger vs 6z, woof woof .

Meh, it will eventually .

They come out much later, pivotal running now .

I’d be shocked if it wasn’t, looks like bench mark from that position at 120 .

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It looks really good on the free maps .

If we get 1-2’ I’m cool with it .

We have a met on our discord. One of the best. He pointed out how the AI runs at 28km resolution. It can’t handle convection. “It’ll cave eventually” It’s getting there .

Right but it was a big move towards like the icon at H5 with a stretched out shortwave. Like my Philly discord posters mention that could cause issues down the road for sure. Something to keep in mind. .

Yep, most of the data looks like that outside the cmc (00z run) so im doubtful we see that reverse. I think that was just a correction run personally .

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Yea, gotta watch that trend though, H5 reminded me of the 00z Ukie there. I thought last nights Ukie was sort of a nice blend of all the models and boom 6z euro looks very similar at H5. We’ll see what 12z brings .

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