Heisy

Gfs evolution won’t work, here is cmc at 126 vs gfs, see the differences with how it ejects the pac energy? They are WORLDs apart .

CMC at 144, the cmc/icon are in different stratospheres vs GFS, like completely different .

6z control (basically smoothed out version of euro) vs 6z gfs. Huge differences in PAC with that epo ridge and the energy that retrogrades. My theory is that GFS had a run with some poor initialization and it needed a few runs to get it out of its system. Probably see the GFS do a full on cave with that progression by end of the day. Maybe even by 12z we’ll see. Now, eps still doesn’t mean snowstorm for I-95, but at least it gives us a shot vs the GFS insane digging scenario. .

PAC differences 117 hours GFS vs euro. .

We’ll it’s a bowling ball that has already peaked. Need a few ticks South and east if euro is to be believed, just hope the pac evolution is correct. .

So I’ll admit I was way wrong with euro, thing was the main wave was stronger but euro did something unlike GFS, it retrograded the rest of the energy back into the PAC. This is way to win I guess and was what some models were showing yesterday etc… .

Can tell already euro will be way amped, stronger wave. Writing is on the wall folks…. .

And I also wonder if 18z GEFS didn’t initialize with the same data as the OP because the 00z absolutely caved. .

10-11th period is obviously over. You gotta hand it to the GFS. It’s been good lately at sniffing changes in pattern before other models. Even with tonight’s storm it was the first to bring it well west. Yea it sometimes still drops too much snow in WAA areas etc. I feel like it’s handling the pac better than other models for whatever reason. Euro/EPS no longer king anymore, upgrades to GFS really showing this year. 10 years ago GFS would be showing this storm to be a HECS right now. Moving focus beyond that, we fail whatever, but my chips have been all in for 14-21st and that hasn’t changed for me. .

The problem I see here is the rest of the data we have is going the same direction. We didn’t have one model run today outside maybe the JMA that gave us snow with a decent H5 SLP track. Even the 18z GEFS which we seem to be putting all our money on still favors interior based on the snow mean. When the OP GFS came in way amped last week with this current system we all thought it was out to lunch too… .

One day, maybe not this year, but sometime in the future we’ll get one of those epic runs with an event around day 6-7 that actually trends the right way. The pain is worth the glory. It snowed at my house today for like 15 minutes, just those few flakes made me want a snowstorm so much more. .

Never mind just saw this , we need 00z data to pick up some big changes… still hope for mid month thouh not losing faith regardless. This whole process reminds me a lot of December .

Not sure I saw it posted but 18z eps trended worst. More ridging and stronger energy coming into play…control worst than 12z… hard to put much stock into the GEFS .

GEFS looks very similar to 12z Canadian and JMA fwiw. Snow mean still favors interior but we def take. Early on in the run the GEFS looked worst since ridge was stronger, but it seems some members are retrograding the energy back in the PAC allowing for weaker wave to eject east. This was what Cape was alluding to earlier. Compare this region to the OP at same hour .

So we’ve been down this road before where GEFS is always a little SE of Op, but this is exactly why ensembles are used. It always takes the GFS a full 24 hours to get a run out of its system. The ensemble being this much different is exactly why we have ensembles, def hope for 00z and going forward, I’ll give y’all that. I didn’t expect that at all .

18z GEFS actually trended more favorably .

Ukie, Icon, EPS, Euro, two runs of the GFS, Canadian (which is the closest run of day to an event is still inland)… pretty much everything is leaning towards ejecting the energy as one strong wave now and there’s nothing kknocking down ridge. You def nailed the pattern, and you’re one of my favorite posters on here. However, the data is screaming at us today. It’s been the same theme all year around this time frame. At some point gotta realize things aren’t looking good. .

Great post. We can’t catch a break can we? It’s really a damn shame. At least models quickly changed today and didn’t tease us within 4-5 days. Time to shift focus to 14-17th honestly, which is the time frame I’ve felt good about all along. We fail there then whatever it’s time for spring .

Euro looks exactly like this at 90 hours so not really sure how great this would end up being. The lead edge of trough shoots straight NNE instead of E and doesn’t do anything to the ridging out ahead of it, then main energy comes east and it’s lights out. .

Exactly, which is why I’ve been stressing about the energy either ejecting out in pieces or a lot weaker. Todays runs are drilling a much stronger wave coming out west and we’re just cooked if that’s the case. I got a little excited for about 6 hours between 00z cmc and 6z gfs showing weak wave getting squeezed under the block but models quickly adjusted. The GFS’s insane odd run is just it’s own way of trending towards a cutter like solution imo. .

This is a better look and overall pattern for mid Atlantic snow imo .

Here is 58’ lead up, see how the wave is on the weak side, it’s just pinned under the block, then 6z GFS came out and I got super excited at seeing a very similar evolution… …… And then since it’s 2023 models amped then hell out of the lead wave…. It’s a pretty big red flag :/ .

Love your PBP randy, half the fun is everyone’s reactions to great runs. We all want it. I thought Ji was being sarcastic towards you, idk…. On to ensembles…. .

That’s certainly one hope, but ugh…. I really thought we had made strides at 6z, was seeing light at end of tunnel, then 6z eps came out and worried me and GFS pulled the rug out. This winter blows bro. .

Yea maybe we can get some WAA before things blast through, but if we want a pure major snowstorm not a chance if the euro is correct with how strong the wave is. Go look at last nights cmc and check the strength of the initial shortwave. It’s perfect, not too strong and gets pinned under the block like you said .