Heisy

GFS missed the phase with the southern vort pretty early and the N/S energy is farther W than euro. Here are the same two pieces of energy and there differences between both of the models at day 5. How we combine these two to get them to phase, tuck, and occlude at our latitude I don’t know. Randy will like my artistic improvements Also note the differences with the small Canadian vort that is N of the main northern stream disturbance on the euro vs what the GFS shows .

Jan 25 2000 was a phased miller A/B type event where N/S dropped in and phased with southern energy. That one worked because of how far south the primary was and how deep the N/S was able to dive. Euro and other models show a more Northern stream dominant event, the full capture happens at a more northern latitude. Look where the capture is happening during 2000 vs what last night’s 00z and todays 12z euro are showing. We’d have to get a huge shift to be in play for storm 2. .

Now this we can agree on lol… Someone from N PA to Maine is probably going to get smoked from this one imo. Think we’ll see other models jump on soon. This is a 2 streamer phase, big question for me right now is position and speed of that STJ vort. .

I know I’ve come off as a negative Nancy to you lately, it’s not on purpose. I don’t think it’s a great look for mid Atlantic dc—> Philly snow outside far NW and mountains. With a NS ULL diving S like that We’d need the low to bomb and occlude at our latitude, eps does that way farther N. There are a few eps members that maybe show that, but in general this event clearly favors NE/interior. Still time to maybe change that whole dynamic, but I wouldn’t bet on it… Now the day 10 setup on the euro OP? That’s how we get snow here…. .

How did the ukie look out beyond 144 hours? It looked like it had a farther SE secondary since the STJ wave wasn’t as amped as the 12z euro js… does stormvista have it out beyond day 6? Thanks bud .

Only 10 days away .

I thought last nights 00z euro stream interaction reminded me of a farther N version of January 25, 2000. That one had a stronger southern stream and developed farther S. 2000. Similarly it tucked inland as it phased N…. .

If it’s more N/S dominant (which this run is since it’s diving farther S) I’d worry about stronger primary and more of a tug inland as it develops Northward. See what 12z euro run brings, but i do think if we saw that run go out beyond 144 there would have been a lot of huggers, that being said it would have probably crushed the interior. Feeling good about this being the real deal and the GFS will likely adjust by end of the day. As always, with storm #1 the GFS is slowly caving to euro/eps guidance. I would probably gambled a million dollars that the 6z gfs was going to come in less amped vs it’s 00z run and it did…. Rooting for the coastal plain but just want a big one to chase… .

Ji you coming with me? .

I live for these runs. I have bad enough ADHD as it is, when a monster run like this happens I can barely put a sentence together lmao .

I like storm 2 because of the PNA domain. 00z euro massively improved that for storm 2. Im all in for storm 2 for nyc-Ne at least. Especially with how those other models ensembles look .

Verbatim it probably tucked too much for SNE but it def destroys someone in the region with that look .

I can’t wait to see the wxbell maps holy fook .

euro doing a full phase at 168… .

Oh boy, PNA heaven bear Idaho, this thing is phasing .

Well out to sea, as I’ve been stating it’s becoming obvious to me the GFs suite is full of crap as always. At 144 though there seems to be a load shortwave dropping south for storm 2 .

Euro still not rolling out, any word on delay? .

Think we’re boned for storm #1 in the city, NW may be able to cash in but city seems to have BL temp issues since we can’t get the ULL to tilt negatively in time to really get into the ccb precip. Storm 2 highly favors NE & NNE in fact I’m in love with this potential right now for them. Down here the pac speed just doesn’t give it time to dig far enough S in time. What happens after that is anyones guess but we’re losing climo. Can’t feel great about much of anything tonight. Hoping for a big event in NE to chase. Think the GFS solution for storm 1 up in NE is bogus, it’s clearly trending S with vort like rest of guidances .

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I’d preach caution with GFS and GEFS right now imo. Think it’s slowly caving towards farther S vort pass guidance. I’m all in for storm 2 right now for NE though .

I’m in love with storm 2 for you guys… ensembles look great for a Mauler type redeveloper. I’d be excited if I were you guys. Think the speed of the pac is just too much for us down in Philly. Storm 1 is just a mess right now for everyone. Think GFS is bogus and slowly caving to other guidance Ensembles look awesome for storm 2, I like the look at the end of ukie. Hopefully euro gives us some fun. I’m rooting hard for this one… need a chase bad… .

Goes from the image above…. To this…, keep backing the ridge up and we have an outside shot .

Storm 2 is a miller B with better PNA domain going into it. Still though it would be nice if the damn pac could just slow down a little bit to allow storm 2 to dig farther west. That storm phased with the STJ, what a beauty. We need to Back this ridge up so it’s closer to Idaho or so for it to be able to phase at our latitude. .

That’s what I was wondering. If the PAC can just slow down a little bit for storm two the main wave could have phased sooner. Just rooting for one of these to be a chase-worthy event, I don’t have an inch of snow this year in Philly .

The second event has better PNA domain setup like you mentioned. For you guys in storm 1 it’s hard for me to trust GFS with where the EPS is sitting right now. We’ll see where we stand by tomorrow .