Heisy

Wow 12z euro just came in like the Ukie to a degree at H5, big hit around the area .

Pattern isn’t terrible, but we have to get rid of these ULLs in the Midwest through confluence or even better +PNA response idk….Ensembles favorite lakes and interior again for this time period because of this. Frustrating… .

12z gfs has Northern stream racing ahead around day 7 supplying confluence with southern vort still in the southwest. .

2014 or 2015 (forget the exact year) had a solid March anafrontal snowstorm up here in Philly. I forget if it impacted you guys. However, you know winter is just about over when this discussion starts lol. .

Just for fun since there isn’t much else to discuss, the 6z GFS is a little faster N/S away from an anafrontal snowstorm. That’s what this run does but for farther N/W. Can see the stretched out LP. That being said this is the GFS beyond 7 days and the EURO looks entirely since it phases those streams much earlier….sure it’ll look completely different in 2 hours .

Edit: woops didn’t refresh and see that others had mentioned it. .

You can see the primary hanging on longer with the farther N pass of that vort on that map too. That’s what I maeant with BL temp issues near the coast this run. It’s one run though, see what tonight and tomorrow bring. I’m just hoping for a chase worthy event .

That’s what I meant, I trust Will, just not sure I see it the same way. It’s still a good run for a lot of people but SE? .

I’m confused though here the comparison, not ridiculing just asking…

Yea but I think since then Northern Vort doesn’t dive as far S it’s warmer in the BL idk hard to say because the snow mean ticked farther N .

Yea eps and control followed suite. Not as good of a run, doesn’t drop the core of the N/S ULL as far SE as 12z mean snow ticked N .

18z euro vs 12z… see what eps/control do in a little bit. Main vort seems a little farther S, southern energy/low little flatter .

By the way I liked the look of the 18z icon at the end of its range. The southern vort trended a little more progressive & main ULL had a little sharper dive look .

Yea for sure I would def take that as a positive this run. .

Yea the main vort strengthens in time to produce, but it’s def different evolution vs euro which phases in that STJ vort. .

It’ll get there in it’s own special way lol. .

18z gfs still letting the STJ vort escape east, still not in its useful range though… wouldn’t worry about it yet .

I think NYC region has a shot with this one… gotta get that CCB backed up into the region once the capture happens. We’ll see how the interaction between that southern vort plays out over next few days. Euro isn’t alone, icon is pretty similar and think looked better at 18z as well fwiw .

It’s close, but 58 dug a lot farther S vs what the euro is snowing. Big issue with this one is the HP. It’s really far west and more west than N. You can still see isobars from the primary near Lake Erie here. Torching the BL. We’d need the capture to happen a lot farther S to get into the ccb for dynamics. That highly favors N Pa through Interior SNE right now. NYC has an outside shot too. If you get a flatter wave from the STJ vort maybe NW can get some snow. Our only path to victory I see for the cities is if this capture happens a lot farther S than any model shows right now. .

There’s no Hp anywhere close and an ULL in the lakes, it’s not really a snow setup for anyone outside the far Nw and high terrain. GFS shows this crap again with energy diving in the southwest and ridge ridge in the middle of the country, think winter might be over if GFS is right. .

Been pretty obvious to me that the coastal plain has no shot with wave 2, my eyes are already set towards 18th-20th to see if anything can undercut the ridge and take advantage of some confluence. Battling climo. Then it’s spring and we can forget about this god awful winter .

This. That’s kind of what the crazy 00z euro run did the other night down here in E PA with the southern vort max being the strong one. Wish we could get that lakes ULL to dive a lot farther SE. We have about 2 maybe 3 days left to see large scale changes before models lock in on a general progression. .

Lol….. all I have tonight. See how 17-21st shakes out. .

Maybe our last hope? .

Whatever happens with storm #2 I do hope it turns into a monster to help any third wave in the day 10 range. .