Heisy

Completely fine with where the euro is at this point. Tends to do this a lot at this range. Wont take much for a slightly sharper trough. Also, check out the GEFS for mid to mid/late month, could be a pattern we havent had in a while, pure arctic.

Yep, want to be SE if city for this one IMO. Hoping for a solid 4-7" winter storm warning Thursday though.

Wicked curve

Looks like it was a nice hit in SNE

Cmc bit more progressive vs 00z. Sorry for the old school graphics

12z cmc more progressive

Radar just blew up over VA, S NJ and S DE gonna get crushed

Cmc looks like a bomb on the black and white maps

So do you go with a forecast of cloudy skies and lean NAM or 4-8" with euro, haha this hobby never easy

Might do a mini chase tomorrow well see. Rates somewhere in DE and S NJ should be pretty good for a few hours

Stealing this from my region, thanks Tony, but this is the model that will be replacing the NAM soon. Let's see how it does...

The Ukie is out?

Ukie on board too pretty much, would really like the euro to join the party for once under 5 days, well see...

This wave has been on the models for two plus days now. It will be there at 12z, though that doesn't mean it will show snow. Easy to be negative right now, I dont blame you, but this is probably the best threat if the year so far imo

Nam is really interesting at end of run. It nailed some events last year at its end range

I'll pull a Will here and say that the 00z nam also made a trend towards what we'd want to see. More lagging of southern vort, more separation. End of the run so doesnt mean much, hopefully we see that continue

Honestly, one MECS/HECS >>> many small events.

During the good winters the day 9-10 pattern changes move up in time. We keep getting head faked. It's a damn shame to waste a NAO like this. Winter is weird though. We could go practically snowless and then have two 12" events in late Feb and March, you just never know. I'd do dirty things for a repeat of last year. Yea the city missed the jackpot during events, but at least there was tracking and chase worthy events. This is boring

Ageed. I've been on in the wx community since the wright weather days, 20 years. Amazing how time flies. Back then there wasn't many places to post. Now, every one is scattered. These days we have twitter and each region has their own forum separate from amwx. Things have changed. Hell, I still remember the days where each model suite got it's own thread. Ji & Nor giving us updates on the March 2001 blizzard when the 12z euro came out at 7pm. Sweet, sweet memories. All that being said, if a blockbuster like 2016 gets within 3-4 days this place will be buzzing. As for current wx, just need to be patient. Jan 1-14 could produce with a little luck. Pattern could be a lot worst

I saw some major improvements so far on OP/ensembles Canadian & GFS. It really looks like Pac ridge will start to shift east towards Jan. This NAO block is absolutely insane. Sometimes as it we get closer in time models almost start to "sense" the block. Like tonight's run where the OP GFS went from nothing to snowstorm at 180 hours for NE. I'm starting to get giddy for January

Mother of God.jpg

Exactly, unfortunately 12z runs thus far just skimming the northern S/W across the lakes, no digging or chasing, won't cut it.

One key to this potential event is the energy that gets left behind in the southwest around day 5-6 or so. Of course the HP positioning and confluence are major factors, but this Southwest energy helps phase and bring the low farther SE imo....last night's euro buried that energy and was purely northern stream. I don't think a N stream only event would work out yet.

I was going to chase near Lake Tahoe, but I probably would have died so opted out this time

Yes that event on the 20-21 has some front end potential, but besides that I think it's a better setup for NNE. 50/50 doesn't seem to be in perfect position...I think we'll get a storm in 1-10th time frame as long as we don't get some insane -PNA on roids