Heisy

Headed to Rochester sunday morning

This is total including pre LES

6z euro

Hey all, I'm going to be chasing this thing from Philly. I know it's very early but I'll be coming back for some spot recommendations, it does look like itll be somewhere between Erie PA and W NY. The speed of this thing might hurt, but I do think 20 inches or greater will be hit by someone in W NY

I despise these storms. I'll probably be somewhere between Pitt and buffalo, could change of course, hoping it's more of a BGM chase

I dont know, this feels like the upgraded OP handling things well and lower resolution GEFS struggling like old times. Anyone remember the GEFS and Dec 16/17 last year? Pepperidge farms remembers...I'm always wrong though. I'm just hoping theres someone who gets 2 feet on the models as we get closer because I plan to chase

On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC Can the GFS win again?!

Wat

Yes but it doesnt start running until like 7:45, it's out to like 36 hours or so right now

That helps, it's a pure spacing issue with the wave behind and the wave off coast. It's actually more the TPV in SE canada that ends up squashing things. The ocean low phases with it. While the ULL diving south is closed and robust the trough axis is positively tilted. One way we can still win is if the main ULL has more latitude as it heads east. I honestly prefer it NOT to dig too far South to begin with. I dont think theres enough spacing for this thing to turn a corner and ride the coast. TL/DR: Strength and Latitude ftw

I actually think it's part that and part the one on its heels mucking up the flow a bit. Probably a combination of the two. Hopefully we are just in a mid range lose it, only to bring it back stage

The 12z Ukie also looked like it was going to have a favorable miller b if it went beyond 144 Haha I cant change my username for some reason, but considering we have 3 first round picks because of the Wentz trade and made the playoffs it's still wentzadelphia here. I was planning to move to Worcester this winter but it will be next winter instead

Wow 12z cmc @180

There are a few 6z eps members that hit eastern Maine with the ocean event on the 13th, the 17/18th wave looked bit less amplified vs 00z

Mother of God.jpg

From my understanding a night or two from the event the Mrf was pretty far south with precip just skirting the city

12z cmc was actually setting something up as well for the same period the gfs has this monstrosity. Just fun and games for now

My first year on the forums (Wright-Weather) was winter of 2000-01, what a crazy winter to get the hobby started. I was 14 at the time, I remember watching a segment on the 6PM news from Hurricane Schwartz down here in Philly. It was early to mid December at the time. He was talking about an upcoming pattern change and something called a NAO. I did a google, uh, maybe askjeeves search and the test was history... That winter started off with a major cold front in mid to late December which lead to the block forming in the Atlantic. This eventually lead to the dec 30 2000 event. A week or so before that event the models were showing a HECS Miller A. It eventually turned into a purely Miller B ULL. @Jiprobably doesnt remember this, but I was up all night watching the radar during that dec 30 event. We spoke on AIM and he told me how he could see still see the stars outside which was a terrible sign. DC was supposed to get like 6-10" and instead got partly sunny. That season also had the infamous March 2001 bust. All in all it was actually a decent winter in philly. I understand @Bob Chill not getting invested on LR op runs. Personally, I still cant help it. During Nov-April I check each model run during the day. I will stay up late for euro during if theres a big one approaching. I can't help it. The lows way out weigh the highs, but that's the beauty if this hobby. The big ones are rare, but when they happen theres no better feeling as a snow enthusiast.

The band up there reminds of last years Feb event down here in philly. Radar signature almost identical.

Pretty good classic redeveloper look there especially with the confluence and HP setup. Fun times ahead hopefully

There going to be an annoying snow hole somewhere in E PA from the coastal taking over.

Considering the sref mean 24 hours out for mondays event here in philly was 11 inches I agree haha

Hey @psuhoffman

GEFS pretty sick in the LR