Jump to content

Heisy

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,030

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Spacing issue right now, the incoming pac energy and the buzz saw in the NE causes the shortwave in between to get shredded. We’ll see how it evolves as we get closer. CMC worked out because it elongated the day 7-8 wave, gfs has more of a buzzsaw in the NE and that combined with the incoming pac energy/STJ just shreds it. Problem all year, the ingredients are there, but unlucky timing and things that can go wrong are just going wrong… .
  2. Heisy
    Icon has dual low that combines too far E…. Weird run .
  3. Heisy
    .
  4. Heisy
    00z gfs has similar evolution but just little too sloppy this run…. Time period is def in play though for now… .
  5. Heisy
    Season saver setup on the cmc…. Same type of setup evolution as 18z gfs had .
  6. Heisy
    Check this out… the wave we spoke of earlier… 00z cmc .
  7. Heisy
    @CAPE @psuhoffman This is OP GFS and GEFS for same time period in the LR… losing climo though…. .
  8. Heisy
    GEFS does look a little better at H5, we want to see this trough trend as positively tilted as possible .
  9. Heisy
    Yea, most likely considering other models look that way at the moment .
  10. Heisy
    It’s alone in its evolution, and seems pretty suspect. Not impossible, but yea… what I’ve noticed this year is that the Op GFS sticks to a general LR pattern evolution for 2-4 runs before new data is infused. 12z run had a similar anafrontal system, 18z doubled down. We’ll probably see a much different evolution by 00z or 6z. If we want a miracle snow event out of that system though we need a GFS evolution where NS races out ahead of the southern energy. .
  11. Heisy
    GFS has an anafrontal wave similar to 12z but better, hard to buy it though… .
  12. Heisy
    Yea I know, this blows. Seems whatever can go wrong will go wrong this year. .
  13. Heisy
    .
  14. Heisy
    18z GFS vs euro at same hour Big differences in its handling with the N/S vort. GFS would be a bust for the Catskills, due to the later pull back of the STJ vort W Ma S VT in prime spot .
  15. Heisy
    Right at the 84-96 hour range was when the euro finally adjusted N with precip for this current event. 12z on the 7th was last run that shunting the precip S/E and the next 00z run brought it N again. We are right in the range now, not feeling great that we saw the shift today. .
  16. Heisy
    Group chase? After a POS winter like this man I’m like 90% sure I’m headed up to the skills’. .
  17. Heisy
    Looks more like ukie, good for nyc region I’d imagine .
  18. Heisy
    Is that basically the control run? .
  19. Heisy
    MJO what is the euro para? I don’t subscribe to stormvista, is it basically the euro run out beyond 90 hours? I thought the OP looked better at 90 .
  20. Heisy
    18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will. .
  21. Heisy
    18z icon with a big shift SE more towards euro evolution .
  22. Heisy
    Haha, not sold yet. Little interesting Ukie has a similar evolution, but like you said all of us should have learned our lesson by now after this year. Not buying until we see it shown 2+ runs in a row .
  23. Heisy
    12z euro looks like Ukie at H5, even gets Philly in action. Poconos thru S NY demolished. I’d def chase personally if something like this happens…. Euro is phasing the two streams in the LR so no chance for anything but rain I’d guess… .
  24. Heisy
    Similar to the ukie to a degree with the wide pass of the STJ vort that kind of drags the primary vort farther SE. euro even gets me in action down here just outside Philly which is what Ukie did too. .
  25. Heisy
    The STJ vort is farther SE and kind of pulls the primary ULL farther S, if we can get that even farther SE were in even better business…. .
×
×
  • Create New...