Heisy

I've been on over ten chases since 2013. I decided to take the girl on a chase this year. We left last Sunday to head to Erie or near there. Had booked a few places depending on last second model shifts (from experience). Except my "experience" really paid off when we left at 10am and gave up near New Kensington Pitt at around 8pm. I accidentally took the turnpike instead of going N from Philly and then west to avoid the storm. Drove through some of the heaviest snow of my life. At least the place we made it to got like 8 inches or so and we drove through blizzard conditions at Somerset PA on way home from upslope LES. Regardless, it was still fun and worth it for that bonding time haha.

So, something interesting of note on the 18z euro. Yea it only goes out to 90 hours and this probably means very little at this range, but there's a significant change that could impact things down the line. If you follow the 12z gfs through its run the stj energy that ends up phasing with the northern stream enters the CONUS around 90 hours out. The 12z gfs dug this energy pretty far SW which then gave more room for the northern stream to catch up to it. 18z gfs didn't dig it as far and it sped up the wave, thus the missed phase etc etc... Well, check out the differences on the 18z euro in Southwest Canada. The new 18z euro has a much better trajectory to send a wave into the southwest...im extremely bored and desperate, but here goes...

Keep the faith.

Yeah the 12z run had that stj energy farther southwest initially which allowed the northern stream to phase. Wouldn't have taken much change this run, still like the time period for potential.

Even though there was no event this run it was closer than people realize. It didn't dig the shortwave as far into the southwest this run so the spacing was off. Looooooooong way to go

This is also the same wave the gfs ended up turning into the monster. (The one near four corners)

Not sure if anyone posted or cares about it, but ukie at the end of the run looked interesting as well. Cold front pushing east and nice looking wave out west

Really like the 27th-29th for a potential Archambault event with +PNA index falling near this time period. Way too far out to get too excited, but there is definitely a signal across the guidance for some kind of east coast event during this time frame.

Whoever said there isn't SS energy involved is wrong FYI, can clearly see both streams here. Yea it ends up mostly NS, but the older more amped runs involved more phasing of the two streams

Lol at some of the lows in PA, atmospheric memory? FYI stormvistas snow algorithm is incorrect on ensembles for some reason. Im not sure what it does wrong but it always seems way different than other sites. It's why I didn't reup my subscription there

Yea, we're gonna be worried about mix with this thing before the end. Hopefully the kicker can help

18z control closing this thing off now, yikes. I fully expect a GFS cave job tonight

The fact that the NAM has the Anafrontal snow but it's setup at end of run is bad tells me to root against the Anafront event.

This. Talked about it earlier regarding the 12z rgem. Other factors, but this is a biggie imo

12z rgem looks decent at end of run. Could see the cmc show a hit today. That Texas energy is important it seems to partially phase with main shortwave and slows it down allowing it to turn corner

I've been on over 10 chases and last night was the first mistake I ever made. I couldn't leave Saturday night so I had to leave yesterday morning (from Philly to Erie). With all the errands I made in the AM I didn't leave until roughly 10-11. Instead of taking the NE extension then west I jumped right on the turnpike not even thinking what could happen. Made it a little past Harrisburg when it started to snow. We drove hours in blinding heavy snow before giving up right around NE of Pitt. I was so drained and exhausted from tracking and driving I couldn't take it anymore. We had about 100 miles to Erie at 15-30 mph at 9pm so enough was enough. Any reports up there? Before I went to bed it did seem west and east of Erie was getting hammered.

I'm in the car now doing last second errands, headed to Erie PA. Really hoping to exceed 20 inches with les combined. Winds should be good too. Hopefully get hit hard and then come home and track a Philly hit!

That's where I'm headed! Psyched

Hey all, after a lot of consideration I've moved my chase location to Erie pa. Just want to apologize in advance to my Pitt crew for bringing the bad mojo haha. When I went to met school in Cal U PA Pitt saw some of its lowest snow seasons ever lol. Expect a huge shift somewhere on the 12z models as I'm on the turnpike from Philly haha. In all seriousness. This should be a fun event. Gl all

It's amazing how similar this setup is to tomorrow's event. We benefit this time from the main wave not being as wrapped up as early, but that kicker could play a role either way. Like tomorrow's event it could end up phasing and pulling it west or help kick it east. Love the potential though. Anyway, I'm packed up and headed to Niagra Falls tomorrow morning. Peace weenies

Alright, bags packed, just need to change a tire tomorrow morning, but then it is off to the races, problem is I haven't decided Niagra falls or near Dunkirk NY, looking for highest possible total LES included. Going with the girl so Niagra falls gets bonus points, but any suggestions

Looks like Niagra falls region is where I’ll be staying. Can’t leave until tomorrow morning, about a 6 hour drive, but hopefully I can beat out the snow. Need to grab new tires and get an oil change and then we’re out. Really hoping to pull 18+, it’ll be close I think. I’m just as excited for the few hours of dumpage from that deform band before it lifts out. I told myself During the summer that I would chase towards the lakes this winter, didn’t realize it would be a synoptic event. Question, what kind of snow cover does region currently have?

I have weatherbell, 6z euro doesn’t run until 6:45 I thought, I’ll check

This morning the plan was Rochester, but now I'm thinking of headed towards Niagra Falls. Though, if I see more NW ticks I'll just stay home. Really want to get into that deformation/ccb zone as long as possible. Reminds me when I chased to Lewisburg pa last year for the Dec storm. I got mix/dry slotted during the height while just north of me saw 2 feet. Well see what happens

That vort was close to going ape though. Probably cmc doing cmc things, at least theres something new showing up