Heisy

Wow what a trend at this range… .

This event is one of the worst modeled events I’ve ever seen at this range. All the models picked up on the storm threat of course, but the run to run changes are crazy… this is the 6z euro vs 00z just 2 days out! What are your thoughts on the day 8-10 threat? .

Where you located? I’m unable to chase this one, hate chasing elevation dependent events anyway, but still jealous AF! For those depressed this morning farther SE there is a signal around day 8-10! Lol .

More of a euro look but slightly better than previous runs. Hopefully we get N/S to respond to that -epo ridge that shows up. Whatever we can do to keep confluence. Speed up the pac wave. Whatever it takes .

Enjoy it up there guys I’ll be watching from a far. There is some hope for another coastal on the day 8-10 range! .

Wave takes too long to come east on euro, but slight better step vs 12z. .

Euro taking a step towards the gfs etc. check out this ridge in epo land, that could help force cold air SE for any pac wave. Euro a little more sloppy with the shortwave, but setup there .

Both gfs and cmc improved for our potential even day 9-10. Better N/S push ahead of the low .

Dry slot before the secondary takes over. Brutal .

Yea I just added that last sentence to not seem as pessimistic as I actually am. In all reality I’m over the cliff. I’m from Bensalem few miles NE of Philly…. Can see the bad trend with confluence on the ensemble as well. .

Not sure how many people know this, but the NAM was supposed to be retired by now. There’s a model that’s already running that’s supposed to be it’s replacement. Forget what it’s called but I’ll try to find its forecast through our Philly met. for this storm and post it. I’m not going to be able to chase this one, so that’s a full year without seeing 1 inch of snow for me. Going to be a long summer. Good luck .

This is most likely the last reasonable chance at anything, unfortunately today went the wrong way. Long way to go though .

This is why it went farther Nw, decreased confluence because NS didn’t phase with the tpv in SE Canada. Same crap euro did (though not nearly as bad, but still negative change) Run to run change…. .

Confluence pattern got worst just like the OP euro. 2023 things. I couldn’t chase either of the Buffalo events this year and it looks like I won’t be able to get up to W MA or Catskills for tomorrow. This has been the worst winter of my life. I think 2001-02 actually had accumulating snow here. Hopefully 23-24 has an Early December event like 02-03 had heh. .

We getting a solid STJ vort look, not overly strong, problem was the N/S this run .

Not getting right confluence pattern from N/S this run…. .

Wow that’s actually a damn good setup, only 240+ hours away! .

There is a little signal on 18z GEFS for 22-24th, couple decent hits around the region .

Yea that pac wave speeding up would help, keep things tighter. I guess I meant there’s more confluent flow near us for the initial wave. We’ll see what happens .

This was the wave we needed models to focus on…. not this one… lost our 50/50 I guess everything could evolve differently, but not looking good right now. I’m still torn on if I’m headed up somewhere in NE tomorrow night. Might be last shot to see snow .

Problem with that day 10+ euro pac wave (and it’s a signal on other models too) is we lose the cold source by time it comes east….we really needed that wave that the cmc blew up last night that is all suppressed on the models today to be the key player imo. That has a perfect confluence setup ahead of it, but it just has no damn spacing because of the next shortwave and -PNA energy pushing it east. Just another example of bad luck… Mean for that 10+ day event shows our 50/50 being too far out of play by then. .

Euro, like other models just different each run. Models really struggling finding a consistent relationship between the two streams. Tough forecast. Here is 6z vs 12z, each run changes which stream is more dominant .

Meh, just terrible spacing with that pac energy just racing east, no room for any amplification at all. If that pac energy becomes the “wave” that forms a storm probably assume are cold air source in NE is gone by then .

Gfs digging more like last nights cmc…curious how this plays out. Not worth getting too invested this far out randy .

This run has a 2013 death band look for that area lol .