Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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That wave end of run was going to be a slow march roller, blocking is setup, that storm was in the midst of bombing. The 12z control is pure porno for New England and interior, wave after wave being forced just far enough under the block .
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25th or so has legs and then around 28-30th. Favorites are obviously places that got hit yesterday. .
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I work nights, saw the 6z eps before I fell asleep and knew something was terribly wrong. This winter man lol…. .
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Congrats to those who cashed in. I enjoyed watching from the side lines. Down here in snow helladelphia we have 0 snow for the season. Maybe a trace but does that really count? This is the first time in my life that I’ve gone an entire year without seeing an inch of snow since 0 chases this year. Life happens. You bet I’ll be going whenever, wherever next year! .
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Here is 6z vs 00z, note the faster energy out west. This trend was similar across other guidance as well…Good news is we’re still far enough out to see changes. .
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Exactly. Last nights more SE runs were partly a result from the PAC wave behind ours speeding up. This speeds up our waveand doesn’t give it space to amplify. Still have a shot, but for snow near the cities we need a very strong low. Night Time helps too. Just another way we may end up failing this year…. .
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Would you rather it be a cutter? Every event at this range has been shown as basically a cutter on the euro so I still take, trended better with N/S. One downside of some of the 00z runs was the energy behind our wave could act as a kicker. We’ll see what EPS shows. .
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This is the real deal, one caveat is increased speed of the pac wave behind it could push it east, but maybe that helps us I don’t know .
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Can see improved cold push, let’s see how it’s timed with the N/S shortwave around the lakes .
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00z GFS looks much improved…. Gotta head back to work but hopefully it leads to the good stuff. Better confluence pattern .
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If you go back and read my posts I was never excited about the previous few weeks. I understand the climo, but I’d personally argue that this is possibly one of the best means we’ve had all season. Only issue is with climo we need to be close to perfect. .
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This is the best looking Miller A look we’ve had all year on the snow mean. 18z eps/control improved at 144 as well with a weaker storm coming out and better confluence .
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Baby steps .
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18z GEFS slightly Improved around day 6 with confluence pattern. All that matters is around day 5-6. We need euro to be on board around then. Till then as long as the other models in the same ball park im fine. UKIE at 168 today was primed for a big event. .
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This is one of the waves that we need to keep an eye on. Euro phases this piece in, this helps build ridging ahead. GFS kind of pushes it farther SE. CMC is kind of in between. hopefully this piece speeds up on future guidance. Rather it get out ahead or roll across N of lakes in future runs I’m really all in on this pattern, just shame it’s happening when it is .
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Why though?! I live down in Philly and haven’t seen more than a car topper. We have all late spring, summer, and fall until it can snow again. Pattern actually looks decent, go all in! .
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Oh agreed, just stating the pattern actually looks amazing. .
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There’s actually two periods to watch in the LR, and I’ll stress that it likely favors interior with all of them. We’re gonna need a little luck in coastal plain, but not impossible. This first event we’re tracking now and then possibly a front ender type if that event forms into 50/50. The pattern is gonna kill a lot of people because It’s happening when it is. Check out this pattern at end of GFS lol, pain. .
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Winter is far from over especially for interior. Once this storm is over and people start looking at the extended they’ll be surprised…21-23rd and 25-27th showing up. This could be an epic month for people who are getting hit hard today .
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Not terrible for this range after OP run. .
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Agreed, doesn’t get confluence out ahead as well as GFS either, there’s a late diving N/S shortwave that is key in this, need that to trend faster. setup still there well see .
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Get the N/S lobe out ahead of the main shortwave would have helped, as is a big improvement .
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Canadian improved?? .
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Yea, damn close and honestly where we want it at this range anyway. I’d like to see cmc or euro take a step towards this today .
