Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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GEFS is bringing the tpv farther S run after run By 180 hours .
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Gfs actually looks good today. Even has a mid Atlantic snowstorm at the end .
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Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12 hours, it’s that bad. Not to diffuse any excitement is may bring of course lol .
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the temps are the issue with this one, low chance of snow next 2 weeks unless we time a shortwave perfectly behind one, but maybe around day 15-25 we can sneak something if we get a -epo or PNA ridge .
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I could see March 7-20th range having some last gasp threats .
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
Heisy replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
12km Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12-18 hours, 3km more reasonable . -
Ai has been showing that wave a few runs now, but it’s been too warm. Obviously well out in time though .
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-Epo showing up Idk if this gets it done in March, but maybe if you ride that pattern out a few days it gets better .
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I bet if you check the H5 from those runs it was way off (GFS)
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
Heisy replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
My cousin lives at Virginia Beach, any weenies on here from there? Thought about taking a drive but idk if I have time . -
Euro Ai keeps popping a -EPO around day 15, A quality met. On our discord pointed out the best analogs for this year favor week 1-2 March. Snow chances the next 10-14 days look very low, and yeah maybe we are done, but we’ll see what happens .
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To be fair euro basically jumped ship right when the event got under 108 hours out or so. 96 hours has been the time frame for lock down mode this year. That’s 4 days, not bad. For weenies in E NC and Virginia Beach I’d be worried about an even more SE trend over next couple days. One of the worst winters of my 38 years on earth. I’d rather a 2001-02 winter than this crap where we get decent patterns that fail. .
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Wow yea I see the similarities there to this one .
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If 18z euro is close Virginia Beach has a run to break their all time snowfall record. Just looked it up it’s around 18” I think. .
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My cousin lives at Virginia Beach, maybe I’ll take a drive lol .
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It’s really just coming into the fold with pretty much every piece of guidance outside the NAM. Was probably to be expected .
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Euro will be tick SE .
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It’s pretty crazy how fast high latitude blocking just breaks down over the next few days .
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Of course the 18z gfs is doing this, but we have no cold air lol .
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If models only went out to 120 hours and beyond that we only used ensembles your opinion would be a lot different .
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I think the kicker and lack of ridge out west hurts any chance for amplification. I agree you look at the map you posted and you’d think a big event was forming, but it just stays neutral and rides E. Frustrating .
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Models aren’t the issue, it’s people trusting OP models outside 120 hours. Yesterday got us under that mark and boom they all started converging last night. They still identified the threat 200+ hours out. .
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Models generally get into somewhat lock down mode once they get under the magic 120 hours number. Yes we’ll still see ticks either way, but not overhauls. Yesterday was that magic time frame and was why I was so nervous before 12z runs. Oh well. We can still muster .4-.6 of high ratio stuff (more for jersey). .
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CMC is a miss, I’m out for the year, cya in 8 months unless some miracle happens mid march .
