Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Interesting here. Ridge position much farther E vs 12z .
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I agree, when I mentioned close the shades I was just basing it off the Euro OP that buries energy in SW with that bad ridge positioning. My point is if we don’t get that ridge to move East we have major problems. Ensemble looks better, but it’s still a close call with plenty still cutting. Maybe another period to watch 26-28th depending on whatever the Xmas eve wave does. .
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Until the ridge is in a better position out west might as well close the shades. Hopefully it’s just euro overdoing things and blowing up storms in the LR. .
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I’ll chase it as long as we see somewhat similar runs within 36 hours. I have a feeling with this H5 setup we will see more NW bumps. Hope I’m wrong. .
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No, you can’t just have one drink. .
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GFS added more separation between the main ULL and the one in the PAC. Need a little bit more, almost there. .
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Made that comment earlier and Will dug up some “tumbler” analogs. This one is extremely strange though. Euro is an absolutely fascinating evolution. Hopefully GFS is wrong .
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Makes sense, bottom line is this the reason we’re seeing GFS vs the world. Still can cut, but I doubt we see GFS complete shred scenario .
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Not to bombard the thread with photos, but here is 18z euro vs gfs. Look at the same region (wave S of Alaska). See the difference in positioning here. I’d bet a decent amount of money we see GFS cave at 00/6z. At 90 hours that wave is almost entering the same trough on the GFS. When it comes to the rest of the setup it looks pretty identical. Could it still cut? Sure, but as for shred city I think this kicker is what’s causing GFS to show it. .
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Look at difference with energy S of Alaska between 18z GFS and 18z EURO. Euro good bit slower/west. GFS ends up pushing that shortwave ahead fast like you mentioned, flow gets completely screwed up. Euro holding it back. Hopefully we see a correction at 00z. I believe we will, GFS is basically on an island here. .
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That’s the 18z btw. Wxbell having issues. GFS is only model out of all of them racing that PAC ULL east as fast as it does. It’s acting as a kicker. There really isn’t a difference I see in the 50/50. Really think the kicker is playing a role here with the shred .
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Here is what I mean, check out the difference out west. Canadian and Euro have that “Total Recall” famous scene look, while the GFS has, whatever you want to call this mess .
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GFS (18z does the same) only model that has the Pac low interacting with the main ULL. Yeah the 50/50 matters, but the kicker plays a major role too. .
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I can’t think of many events that had pac energy close off near the Rockies, stay closed off in the plains, then be forced under a block and redevelop to a coastal. I’m sure they exist just can’t think of one. Most events with closed ULLs dive out of Canada, like Dec 2000. Can you think of any similar setups? .
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Agreed. After the cutter should be much better cold air availability with -EPO. PNA issues still, so probably will still be dealing with less than ideal storm tracks, but maybe a decent pattern for front Enders/WAA events. .
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Quick tidbit off euro, anyone ever see model show relative velocity (correct?) wave like this? .
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Also, that strong wave at the end of euro run would also potentially lock in confluence for next wave. Show goes on. With this anomalous block there will be lots of potential for a miller B nuke. Look at the 12z control for entertainment purposes. Ignore the details .
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Starting to see that classic 50/50 with a dip in the trough in the east on the mean. Even a little western ridge action. Long way out, but can’t complain about this 10-12 days out .
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18z GFS same type of setup as the 12z euro in Day 10-12 fantasy land. It then does a March 4-6 2001 pin wheel phase for shits and giggles .
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End of EURO run (for fun) decent setup with a little better positioning here. This was about to go a little nuts I think. .
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Makes sense, if you look at todays EPS members, the ones that drop snow start around Day 11 or so. Hopefully in 2-4 days we get some tease rollin’ .
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Agreed, something has to give, there’s plenty of snow events on the EPS members in the LR. Would be nice to at least be teased by something on an OP run already… .
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I hear what you’re saying, but 3 days is kind of pushing it. I think you can have a good idea of a storm threat is real up to even 5-6. As long as you obviously don’t get caught up on specifics. Sure, there are events that sneak up on us, but there’s plenty that are at least on OP runs 5 to even 7 days out. Anyway, that was a beautiful EPS run. Little hint of a split flow forming too. .
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Just imagine now till about December 4th doesn’t exist and you will all feel better. .
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Still looking decent at 12z .
