Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Strat playing a role on the GFS .
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And boom look what shows up at the end of the model run… .
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Gonna see some severe arctic outbreaks show up on models come Mid Jan if this is right .
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I remember the GFS run during Christmas Day that clobbered us. My buddy was texting me, we still didn’t believe it until the euro that night came On board. Here in Philly the lead up of the event was more fun than the actually storm itself since we sort of got fringed of the good stuff, still a great memory. .
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Probably some of the best runs of the year last night. This is getting close to textbook. Always ways we can fail but I’m starting to gain a lot of confidence we’ll see accumulating snow first 10 days of January. Also, check out the strat as posted by a user on our Philly sub. .
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I think this event is probably a long shot. It then looks like Jan 2-5th is next on the docket based on the timing of all the shortwaves. Will have more cold air to work with. Just gotta time one of these STJ waves with a TPV diving SE out ahead of it. Let’s make it happen already, I’m really itching to track something .
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EPS still looks good to me headed into January, but it doesn’t look as good as it did on the Sunday 12z run .
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You can sort of see the heights near the 50/50 land look more prominent on 18z GEFS. Gonna take a lot of work for cities to get snow during this time frame, but inland can def be looking at a big one if things roll right .
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If it plays out as currently pronged we’d need to time the N/S 50/50 perfectly with the meandering big ULL down south. This run we had some decent confluence setup for a bit. the airmass headed into the event is putrid. Think the main low is gonna take way too long though. Even if this one misses/rain it gives me hope for Jan and Feb because we’re plenty of STJ influenced storms. Matter of time till we time something we’ll especially if we get -EPO .
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18z gfs actually building in a 50/50 low for the 28th time frame event. Could get interesting… .
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Yep, starting to feel really good about January. The 28-New Years range event is a long shot. Unless a 50/50 forms out ahead of the main low that’s a Rainer, but after that it’s game on. .
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This was the best EPS run we’ve had all year .
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This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot .
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I’ll roll the dice with this look at this range .
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Euro was tantalizingly close. Need a little better spacing between the two lows. Worth monitoring for sure .
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Yea sure, I was just curious in general about any analogs for this type of system .
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Will, any events off the top of your head with a similar trailer wave that blew up? Pretty odd setup to me with such a strong lead storm .
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Gfs trended better with diving the N/S farther S. It does have the same piece. Just not far enough S yet. Ukie on board as well btw. Focuses over NYC though. At this range just focusing on the larger features. .
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NSFW .
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12z cmc might be really good… waiting for next frame that H5 looks sweet though .
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Yea I had mentioned even the control was about to go bonkers over the region. You’d have to get into the ccb goods. Worth tracking for sure .
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Someone will def get a surprise if that H5 closes off and dives somewhere near the coast. Pinpointing that at this range is impossible but this is starting to gain legs. Would love the cmc Or gfs to show it today My gut tells me it probably ends up farther N since we don’t have a block, but who knows
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Yea has a little support. Icon, ukie sort of. As mentioned on our sub I do wonder if this is just euro bias. Hard to understand how that N/S is diving so far south without a block. At least it’s something to keep an eye on. .
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Just for fun but the 6z euro control was about to dump on the region. Ends at 144 but that N//S was closing off in a perfect spot. Anyway, I’m pretty intrigued if we can get this N/S to dive down. Crazy things can happen with a cutoff like that. I’d put it at very low probability, but from a meteorological-fan standpoint I’m rooting for something wild. .
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I don’t care if it’s 15 days out. Seeing some solid maps in fantasy range is always encouraging. It beats having them show garbage .
