Heisy

Walt drag, my favorite Met, always says you always want the CMC on your side if a storm threat is real. I don’t have it out that far, but H5 did look decent. In general (based off GFS) We need slightly better spacing/separation in SE Canada, stronger S/W will help too. The PAC flow is racing E so it’s going to try to stop anything from developing, but not a horrible look. My fantasy team just got knocked out of finals because of Rodgers TD so I’ll take something to track right now to make my life meaningful haha .

Hmm interesting changes. Noticed the 18z EPS/control strengthened this same clipper but didn’t say anything. Needs a little spacing improvement but could be something to track… .

I will also add that the 00z NAM also in GFS camp fwiw .

Uh, 00z icon joining GFS camp with TPV handling. I did not expect this at all .

This was interesting because the GFS didn’t cave with the TPV positioning. In fact the 50/50 was probably in a better spot! The main wave just came in S too hot and heavy this run. This is why the GEFS is still really good because if anything the overall setup was better vs 12z lol I know some people will jump ship after that run, but it came inland for completely different reasons vs other models and would have easily been another monster hit if the main shortwave was weaker .

GFS vs the world, we got this! .

Hard to have any confidence with GFS handling of TPV when it’s on its own island right now. Stranger things have happened though. .

This is an awesome post. Will be fun to see which one caves. My opinion based on watching model wars play out over 20+ years… If GFS does cave don’t expect a step down trend. It will go from what it just showed today at 12z to a full on cutter in one run because of how important this feature is. Get me 2 more runs, 18 & 00z with similar TPV handling and I’ll jump on board with GFS .

Icon does it as well. We’ve seen model wars before, but this is a big one. Any gut feeling here? Feel like last nights Euro was more of a middle ground with the TPV handling. This is impressive for only 72-84 hours out. .

Ukie dumps all the energy out west and doesn’t separate the TPV. Changes start early around 72-90 hours. One side is brutally wrong .

Yep. Take a look at newest CMC run and put it in motion and watch our tpv feature. It heads down the EPO ridge and then literally just stops in its tracks in the NW. Guess we’ll find out soon… I was bored this morning and went back to see which model did better with the current ULL at day 6. GFS was way more accurate. .

Exactly, that’s all I was pointing out. Interesting that there are such large scale issues regarding this feature at only 84-90 hours out. Was showing the Icon as an example of a model dumping it out west. .

Def not trying to come off that way. Just observing the model runs that’s all. I’m rooting as hard as everyone else. I’ve spent 1000s of dollars chasing frozen water across the country. I’m a sicko. Not trying to come across negative my bad. Canadian doesn’t push the TPV east and it comes out as one ULL, going to be interesting which suit caves. Probably meet somewhere in the middle .

Not sure what you guys are flaming me for? The GFS not caving is a good thing. Was just pointing out an important feature that is key to us getting snow. We’ve seen GFS occasionally win these battles, maybe we get lucky idk .

Yea that model sucks, just pointing out the difference with its handling of the front running TPV which provides the confluence we will need. The Icon is in the 6z eps/control, CMC, Ukie camp. .

12z GFS still not caving with 50-50 push. Probably get a good run here. It’s all alone right now though. Check out differences between Icon and GFS at only 93 hours. .

Main issue right now is the lead TPV wave that sets up or confluence. Last couple cycles other data not pushing it into classic 50/50 region. The farther SE this energy pushes the colder and snowier the models will be. Check out differences between 6z GFS - 00z EURO - 00z CMC .

I’m a snow addict, I’m always worrying haha, was just pointing it out after seeing OP/EPS. .

Sloppy phase on euro a bit concerning. There’s a bunch of EPS scenarios (including control) where that lead southern vort escapes and then you’re relying on whether or not the main vort can close off in time. Too early to get too worried about that though. Just happy it showed a storm at this range .

Meanwhile the Ukie is dumping all the energy out West like the data was showing few days ago and CMC overwhelms the pattern with the lead wave. We are 7-8+ days away. So temper expectations and don’t fret the details. Just keep hoping you see it he same general setup around 144 hours with the 50/50 and main S/W behind it. We’re still at the range where everything can go poof. I honestly don’t really care what the Ukie shows beyond 96 hours unless it gives us a blizzard, just posting for a reality check .

CMC showing major improvements with 50/50 as well. This goes ape around NE, might be a little messy. Improvements are 100x tonight though. .

Buffalo might as well be Antarctica if this run verified .

Give me 12z Icon confluence with 12z Euro shortwave ftw .

Let’s hope the euro is having issues dealing with the western energy/ridge, ugh… .

I said close the blinds if that ridge doesn’t shift E. 18z GEFS shifted it east. Let’s see if guidance continues to trend that way. Gotta hope we keep seeing that and maybe beefed up confluence, or the Eve-ranger storm will cut/Ohio valley runner. I know you know this, but dump too much energy out west the SE ridge will flex in this pattern: Regardless, serious strong signal for a major storm/front for 22-23rd period. .