Heisy

Brighten the mood, 12z icon goes ape lol .

Even look at last nights 00z euro control for another example. It has this block and not an inch of snow anywhere near us. It goes from this…. To this… Yet no snow anywhere because of same reasons you mentioned. Not that I care what the model shows verbatim, just another example .

Wave gets obliterated by the 50/50 above and that strong pac wave crashing on shore behind it speeding it up. There will be a HP wedged to the NE of us as this thing comes N for a short time it seems. I think there could be a thin line of accumulating to the north of this thing. In future runs I’d root on for the main shortwave to have more latitude as it heads east because it’s going to get shredded no matter what. What is discouraging is the one model today that brought the low far enough N was the CMC and it ended up being too warm except for far NW burbs. Cmc didn’t look as good as the GFS in SE canada though so who knows. Pretty strong thread the needle situation, but I guess it’s something to track at least. PS Best look of the day for this storm was probably the 12z JMA at 192 lol. .

That’s pretty much the consensus it seems. We have two semi long shots, both sort of thread the needle on the dates you mentioned. Then after that 7-8th wave there’s a warm spell for 1-3 days between 8-10th. Then we latch our hope on the AO and see how far S and E that western Canada cold dump can go. Sound about right? .

Hope this is wrong, it just never wants to come east lol. .

I know this isn’t horrible but it’s frustrating we can’t get the cold anomalies farther SE. they just want to hang in central conus .looks like a def warm up between 8-11th before this hopefully pushes east, well see .

Pretty good agreement between 12z OP and 6z ensemble with how pattern progresses. Probably get a couple day warm up ahead of the cold push. Then we hope that trough can push east and a block forms. .

See if this comes up the coast or gets crushed .

12z cmc and gfs have better TPV positioning and cold press out ahead of the potential Jan 6-8 wave. Like i mentioned both with more phasing with the N stream. Could be good here we’ll see .

I think the more N stream energy we have interject into the 3-5th wave will help us with the 6-8th wave. Just something to keep an eye on. .

Gonna be a big cold dump out west around 8-10. Been on GFS and other models multiple runs now. I think we’re realistically pushing till mid month+ for a snow threat. .

Canadian gives us hope. Monster 50/50 low. Probably would shred any low anyway, Its ensembles like an event between day 9-11 I’m sure it’ll be gone though in 11 hours .

This storm has major issues I think. We don’t snow with Lps in the lakes. There’s no cold Press out ahead of it. Just that cutoff low that doesn’t really do anything. The mean is skewed by what Psu mentioned earlier imo. Warm and wet chilly and dry, there’s a reason the snow mean is putrid up to this point. Hope it changes but not feeling great .

I’m almost 40 and still have the original weenie in my heart. HM on our board gave us some hope about MJO wave. At least Ne is struggling with us this time. Now they feel the pain too. .

Yea and that’s a sign the setup isn’t that good. There’s too much ridging ahead of the low. There’s a N/S push but it’s timed with the low so we have a LP sitting at the lakes. Does nothing to help hold in any cold. .

I realize that, it gets there eventually but we’re pushing 15 days then. It would def warm up ahead of that. Getting a little nervous that’s all. Negative Weenie vibes. I’m trying to hold it in lol .

I’m done. At this point let’s see how long we can go without an inch of snow. 3 years? 5 years? A decade? Maybe it’s possible idk? .

12z euro has that Jan 4-5 event but there’s just no room for it to do anything. The timing with the shortwave behind it and the N/S are horrible. Then it looks likes it’s about to cook up another rain storm day 10+ This gives me ptsd from last few years. Blocking with SE ridge. Someone get me a dog .

End of cmc run looks juicy. Probably need a little movement in key pieces, but it’s close. I personally like 6-8th as the time frame to watch .

Yea hopefully just a blip run, that would suck. Weeklies look good for SSW but they’re last night .

Don’t kill me too much, I know we have a window for something hopefully between 1/2-10, but this being the snow mean from the 6z GEFS through 300 hours is sad and discouraging. Just one run though . .

Wouldn’t really worry about the first couple days of Jan at this point. Looks like we may very well may get a SSW. I’m all in around mid month to Feb This is epic here .

Yea we’re in the warm sector of a cold front there… at that stage It has entered the plains. It would eventually come East, as I mentioned we’d warm up for a few days ahead of any arctic blast. That’s if GFS is even close to being right who knows… .

I was in Dover NJ for that event. Originally drove to Allentown and I think a few runs of the NAM and others freaked me out as there was shift to the N. Drove to Dover as it was starting. Was a good decision even though Allentown still got crushed as well Feb 2013 went to Marlboro MA (great storm but missed the prime band that went through CT etc) March 2013: the storm that slammed SNE I actually drove to NW VA as it originally looked great there. Ended up with like 6” of slop 2015 went to RI, missed the bulk in C MA 2020 went to Lewistown Pa, this one haunted me because The King Walt Drag PM me to go to Binghamton NY the morning of and I didn’t see it. I got slotted during the night of the storm and only ended up with like 14-16” if I recall while just N of me got 2’+ Went to Estes Park Colorado 2021. Fun storm just because of the location. Wasn’t as much snow as I was hoping for though. And of course the 2022 event Coastalwx referenced where I finally practically jackpotted .

I’ve done the same countless times. Gets me in that snowstorm mood. That was a fun trip. First time I ever made it to pretty much the jackpot region. Hoping to score a big event at home for once. .