Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Man, 83’ is one event I would have loved to experience. Check out the ULL just NE of Maine. Looks like it just trapped that beast underneath it. .
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I was cliff searching but not quite jumping yet. I will say, pretty crazy differences between GFS/GEFS and euro/eps/geps come mid month. I hope GEFS is wrong in LR or I will be jumping off the Walt Whitman .
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18z gefs def a lot better with confluence .
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Teetering on perfection .
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GEPS and Op euro setting up for beautiful pattern in LR GEFS is a disaster so let’s hope that’s wrong .
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Only took you a few hours to agree. Heh .
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A lot stronger HP out ahead of long range event .
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While euro is a disaster for the 7th. It does have lower heights out ahead of the Southwest wave for Jan 9-11 range .
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I don’t disagree about ensembles, but we almost never want events to be shown this far N at this range. Ralph what S models? Icon is pretty much it? Ensembles are always gonna be smoothed out and farther SE at this range. Cmc always tends to have a tightened up ccb field btw, always find that interesting with it, wonder why. .
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Cmc, but keep in mind the trends .
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Cmc and icon have much weaker waves which is a saving grace, but idk how much we can rely on that. We’ll see .
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12z gfs will be amped, 50/50 backing off a bit and main wave is even stronger, congrats buffalo this run .
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Little bit, years in this hobby make you jaded a bit. I’m not writing it off, we’re way too far out. Regardless you know me, I’ll be the first one to jump in a car and chase anything over a foot of snow. So just rooting on a big event regardless .
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Ensembles are generally always smoother than OP. Don’t really remember a time when they weren’t with STJ events I’d rather this max stripe be over DT at this range right now. Lol. Snow field reminds me over a warmer dec 2020, could be congrats BGM at the end. If this fails though it’s okay. Pattern def looks solid rest of month. We probably wanted a near miss before we get cranking anyway .
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Doesn’t phase the northern stream with the event on the 4th so the 50/50 isn’t as strong .
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Euro doesn’t have the same phase between the northern stream and the wave on 4th which lead to a much stronger 50/50 on the GFS etc. .
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Cmc ensembles are jacked, better for N&W. Probably a lot of tucked solutions I’m sure Psu will find a way to jackpot. Long way to go but at least we’re def tracking something this week .
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Hard to know for sure if that’s coming up the coast. At 144 on the map MJO posted it had some decent confluence out ahead. Still, more support for the 7th so we take .
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Thanks again, does it have height lines at those hours or just the maps you posted .
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Can you post H5? .
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Icon just having an event on the EC at this range is a positive sign. We take .
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The parade of pac waves actually helps us as it speeds up any wave and doesn’t allow them to get too amped. Just need support from a 50/50 and we should be good .
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If we get lucky the 7-8th event phases in with the TPV, creates another 50/50 and we stay on the right side of the gradient for a front ended Jan 9-11. It’s certainly possible if the block is real like in the EPs etc .
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A lot closer this run vs previous, but not there yet .
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12z euro looks more like cmc with the phasing N/S shortwave than previous runs. Could be close here if we get the phase/turn corner .
