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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    Some potential Jan 8-10 if we can time a shortwave well. Can see it across the ensembles today Can see early signs here. Little signal for a 50/50, +PNA ridge. On the cmc ens you can see a little confluence over SE Canada/NE and a secondary wave near East Coast Like I said, probably will need a lead wave to lay down some confluence and cold for any follow up. Can sort of see that if you put the cmc/GEFS ensemble in motion .
  2. Heisy
    Definitely seeing some light at end of tunnel. All you can ask for at this point. There’s a few hits in the Jan 6-8 range for NNE on GEFS. One East Coast HECS on GEFS and a few hits mixed in on the CMC ensembles. Not bad Going to have to time shortwaves well. (More important down here in Philly), but need one wave to lay down some cold and have another timer and spaced properly .
  3. Heisy
    So I packed and reserved a hotel near Buff today. Some last second stuff came up so I can’t go. This winter blows! Lol. At least we got the Birds. .
  4. Heisy
    Hey all, I’m headed up soon. Staying (at least at the moment) at Country Inn near West Senaca. Doing last prep… Seems 12z NAM ticked S a touch .
  5. Heisy
    Euro still teasing us it seems .
  6. Heisy
    The old black and white maps still come out before anything else. It’s still out to sea unfortunately still ballpark as GFS .
  7. Heisy
    I’m headed to Buffalo tomorrow morning. Can’t take December shutouts might as well get my snow needs out of the way haha .
  8. Heisy
    So I think I’m headed up!! I have enough PTO time etc. Timing is bit of an issue. I work tonight until around 12-1, gotta wake up early get some food for the trip. Stock up emergency stuff. Im coming from Philadelphia so about 6 hour trip I imagine. Probably drive through some bad weather in NY state but should make it with plenty of time. Any hotel recommendations or locations in general at this stage? .
  9. Heisy
    George I appreciate your enthusiasm. I’ve been on these wx boards since 2001 Wright-weather days. There were times I felt how you are feeling now where I could will a snowstorm into occurring. Modeling have gotten more advanced. Is there a chance? Sure, but you want some data to show something. None of the models are even close right now. Good luck though. As long as you can handle the let down… .
  10. Heisy
    Anyone wanna split a place near Buffalo? .
  11. Heisy
    Looks like 6z EPS/control brought the trough E. Gonna need some big improvements today. Nothing else to really track though so we’ll see .
  12. Heisy
    00z euro is painstakingly close to a phase .
  13. Heisy
    Going in the wrong direction. Like I said though I’ll give it to 12z tomorrow for euro/cmc/gfs to show something. If we strike out by 2:30 tomorrow I’d have serious doubts anything comes from this wave. Still in pike, I’d give it around 10-15%. I wish this next event didn’t fall near Cmas I’d def chase to Buffalo. I’m so hungry for something man, and I’m in Philly which makes it even worst. .
  14. Heisy
    Good post as usual, I really think this one is going to rely on whether or not a piece of the TPV can drop down and phase with southern branch. That would help mitigate the PAC trying to race everything East. Think we really need Euro or CMC show a hit by 12z tomorrow .
  15. Heisy
    GFS took steps in the right direction, but not close yet. Couldn’t care less what this model shows anyway .
  16. Heisy
    Giving me an issue posting photos for some reason, hopefully shows up… .
  17. Heisy
    .
  18. Heisy
    Nice hit on the weenie control, does just exactly what we’d want at H5 .
  19. Heisy
    Control looks fun at 156, once I saw that figured some EPS interest .
  20. Heisy
    Yea that’s definitely a thorn in this setup. Would like to see one of the globals show a hit by 12z tomorrow and some potential on EPS. OT but god I wish I could chase this LES in Buffalo. Of course it falls right near and around Xmas .
  21. Heisy
    You must be in heaven right now. Jealousy off the charts. I haven’t seen one flake here in Philly .
  22. Heisy
    Yes, if that southern vort slowed up a bit it could provide a nice front for a low to form as long as the diving S/W trends stronger/improved angle .
  23. Heisy
    It did try this run, but won’t come through. Feel like that left over energy down S messing things up. .
  24. Heisy
    It falls on Xmas or I would as well .
  25. Heisy
    GEFS sniffing it .
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