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Yea we actually saw it show follow up wave for first time with some separation. Hopefully we can continue that trend .

GFS really loves this event. Hard to trust this year but this is a beefy mean, there is one HECS on there that skews a bit. We’ll see .

18z GFS and ensemble really like next week event. Only guidance really giving it a chance though. Funny how 6z and 18z GEFS snowfall mean look completely different than 12z. 6z/18z give the event a chance by separating the shortwaves and allowing it to redevelop. A sign for 00z runs or a GFS mirage? Find out in 5 hours .

I made a comparison GIF of the 6z vs 12z vs 18z runs… the 6z and 18z runs give the event a chance by stretching out the trough and lagging some energy behind. Once again, need some other guidance to show this happening for it to be believable. That is a pretty damn juicy mean for this far out though. Maybe the best all year? .

Individuals, juiced up for some reason .

Here is a better look at 18z GEFS, definitely a ton of members redeveloping the low. Probably just another GFS mirage, but… .

18z GFS & GEFS more like 6z run. Something in the physics idk. Since really not much other guidance shows the trough going that positive and allowing a new low to form it’s hard to give this any credit…. .

One step forward, two steps backwards .

It’s able to build in HP because of some TPV energy that dives south, wave has some separation and HP build behind. It’s actually a different wave vs last nights 00z/6z runs that showed the coastal event. .

Posted it over on NE. Need that TPV energy in SE Canada to continue to dive SE and trend stronger. Keep the separation between that and main wave and we got a shot. Hopefully start of a trend. Here is 18z vs 12z note difference in SE Canada. 18z front clears and HP gets to build in. Little too late this run for city but close .

Back to back OP runs showing -EPO and PNA in LR, keep building on this that will def user in some cold air and hopefully trap it in SE Canada .

GFS kind of shows same TPV phase situation we were dealing with during the last cutter. 18z gfs gets the energy in SE Canada out ahead of shortwave which allows some cold air to filter vs 12z which phases them. If there was a little more separation here with more of TPV press we could get hit here near coast. Need some work though. GFS colder bias could be at work here too and I think better opportunities probably better beyond this anyway TLDR: as long as we get some TPV press in SE Canada we’ll have some opportunities with an active PAC . .

Yeah because the trough comes east as basically one shortwave. Need wave separation for a shot at something significant .

It did, but it’s back to running. Looks like due to the fast pac flow there’s a few short waves to keep an eye on. The lead wave heads towards lakes and kind of phases with TPV, then the question is do next set of shortwaves come east as one low or do we separation ala 6z GFS/12z cmc where front clears and then a third shortwave is given room to redevelop. If that second shortwave comes east as one low there won’t be cold air available. Need to kind of beat down the ridge and create confluence to have a shot here. .

12z cmc comes close to pulling a 6z GFS scenario. A little bit more energy in follow up wave and could have been a good run As is close enough where this may be a legit threat models picking up .

No other game in town, both GFS & CMC tried to sneak in a redeveloper around same time frame. GFS just too far south and CMC a little messy, but trackable I suppose. PAC flow is so fast it hurts our chances unfortunately .

Honestly I would roll the dice with the pattern we saw earlier this month vs what I see on ensembles now. Obviously we need to fix the PAC and somehow get a a 50/50 to setup at some point. Ralph, we’ve been in this hobby for a long time. Patience is what makes snowstorms great. When we finally get a big storm here, and it will happen one day, the payoff will be great. I think by Jan 15-20 if we’re not tracking something in the medium range by then I’d start get worried. OT: I moved to Bensalem last April, right near where the tornado hit a few years back. I have a nice overhang open porch in front of my place. Can’t wait to experience a snowstorm here. .

There will be at least one more chase worthy event by end of winter. Still, I’m tired of chasing events. Just want to stay home and enjoy a damn snowstorm already lol .

Actually saw some pretty large scale changes on 12z OP CMC. It gets a TPV piece to drop SE with energy left over near Texas. Unfortunately the fast flow doesn’t let anything develop from it. Fishing for anything boys .

Really ugly runs last night. Models delaying everything. Sigh. I should have went to Buffalo .

I should have went to Buffalo .

Seeing better confluence for this time period showing up. We just had the GFS fantasy run, CMC looks better as well. Probably not enough confluence/cold air but trending right direction at least? .

Just posting an example of something to root for or look ahead. The hopeful “ridge killer” gets a little help from the N stream on the 18z GFS. It then leads to a decent confluence setup over SE Canada. La La land but something to keep an eye on as we get this time frame under 8-10 days. First image is the N stream dipping south combining with S vort to help usher in some colder air and knock down ridge. Second image is the setup it creates, which is pretty optimal imo. Note the tight isobars draped across the Lakes through NE .

This is the first wave to take on the ridge, stronger on today’s euro. As tip mentioned there is a wave after this that right now probably favors interior, but def some interest on ensembles for your region. Imo root for this first wave to trend stronger for any follow up around 7-9th .

I actually reserved a hotel morning before this event. It was near West Senaca. I cancelled last second. Was packed and everything. Turns out the location of my hotel probably got the least out of the entire region. They were too far S other day and too far N today. I would have been pissed. I don’t even chase snow well lol .