Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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50/50 is actually probably too strong this run, no way this thing cuts .
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Here is our event…battle between main wave and our 50/50 .
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Paging Dr Hoffman Better everything this GEFS run, +PNA ridge, improved 5050, HP, SLP You can kind of see SLP redevelopment with some HP bleeding down CAD areas .
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Best chance all year N stream disturbance on 11th is our 50/50 which helps lock in whatever comes from the PAC .
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That 11th event from OP GFS likely a mirage imo. I could see it being a strong closed off N stream disturbance that swings through NE. Regardless it’s a very important piece to the puzzle since it will setup as our 50/50. 12z GEFS so far .
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Gfs diving phasing TPV piece down SE, this is good headed into the LR event could help form 50/50 for our hopeful event (one crashing into Cali in this image) .
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I think it’s the best shot all year, but we’re still so far out and a lot has to go right leading up to that wave….so we wait… .
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Wow, very similar to EPS, can’t ask for a ton more at this range for a coastal signal. I’m hoping the 11th wave turns into a solid 50/50 .
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18z GEFS a little better with our hopeful 13/14th shortwave .
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18z GFS is close to turning the 11th shortwave into an event. It changed the upper air pattern over SE Canada more favorable to lock in HP. It sure if the ULL will cut off or come up the coast though. .
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So there’s two possible waves in the LR. One around 11th and then the 13-15th which is what we saw at end of euro/cmc run today. I personally like our odds better for the latter. Since it is happy hour I’ll post the 12z JMA which developed the 11th shortwave into what would have been a big event lol .
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Pure speculation at this point, but these cutoff lows can be decent for you guys if they head east at the right latitude. They tend be slow moving so mid Atlantic/SE take advantage of any transient 50/50 first. Ensemble members show a big mix of direct hits, NE hits, interior hits etc, as expected at this range, but solid signal this far out .
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Wow .
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EPS so far… .
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I like how Euro kind of traps the prior shortwaves in a confluence pattern over SE Canada/NE. Long way to go but good start today .
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Event at end of OP Euro is the one the ensembles have been hinting at for a few days now. Imo this is the best shot all year for a brief window for success. So many shortwaves crashing from the PAC prior my hope is that they lead to a transient 50/50 setup like the Euro has. Euro vs CMC at end of run .
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Honestly I’m the type of snow fiend who would take that every year. 12z JMA yesterday had a big one forming at 192. Let’s goo, I’m feeling good about todays 12z runs ha .
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Enjoy it for 12 hours .
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00z euro has a weird evolution fantasy event near end of run to satisfy our hunger .
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Cmc tried to spin something up end of run. Flow is ridiculously complicated. Multiple Shortwaves with all the pac energy crashing inland wave after wave. Absolutely brutal pattern for the models. Grasping at straws here. Tiring .
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There’s been a wave showing up on the GEFS a few runs in a row now for the 12-14th. EPS has it too I suppose. 12z Canadian showed the wave in C US at end of run, but didn’t look too great. Only long range period worth watching right now imo .
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As others have noted the only hope I see for any kind of event right now is the 13-14th wave. Ensembles sort of like it. This is nothing spectacular because the airmass is borderline and not many ensemble members have hits 12z Canadian has the wave in C US at end of run (though it doesn’t look that great). GFS buries it into the GOM. .
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Even though EPS looks “good” in LR it still concerns me that the snow mean is so garbage. Basically tells me that even though the average height pattern Jan 15-16 is good, how we get there on each individual ensemble member almost always doesn’t result in snow. Wake me up when we start getting some darker blues in here .
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Looks like we also took a little step back on the potential good looking pattern mid month. Ugh. Gotta hope we get lucky I guess .
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End of euro run also almost pulls a 12z cmc. Thought it was going to trap and cut off this ULL, kind of slides east oddly .
