Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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00z gfs forms a rex block in the long range underneath the ridge, but you can see it’s about to dump the motherload of cold down south. See once you get a true -epo ridge only a matter of time for cold to work in .
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This would be the beginning of the pattern change, so I don’t know if cold air has worked in yet, but damn this is usually almost a perfect setup. Main vort a little too strong, but have confluence and 50/50. Hopefully sign of things to come .
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Now this we take… .
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It’s waiting for his vacation to snow. I think our next shot will be around 24-26 Ridge a little weaker this run, still solid look though. .
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If the -EPO PNA does form as advertised it may take a couple NS disturbances to usher in the cold. Then we wait and see if we can time a shortwave because there doesn’t seem to be any Atlantic blocking to facilitate anything .
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Ridge bridge tonight Looking ahead to keep my sanity. At least ensembles show this may be for real .
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18z euro step back for our miracle secondary event. Knew that would happen this winter. What can go wrong will go wrong. Must of had sampling issues with that lead shortwave this morning. Still a few members have it, but mainly W NW of city anyway .
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We should have a window from around Jan 22-Feb12 to get some snow if the ensembles are right. We fail during this potential -EPO regime that could take hold then god help us all .
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Imo EURO H5 would argue for faster CCB development. You guys could be in a good spot for this if it happens, especially W Burbs which the ensembles favor. The secondary is looking like a real deal, figuring out where it forms going to take a while .
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GEPS looks solid again, Looks like we’re probably gonna get a nice ridge for once, question is how long will it last… .
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EPS ticked the other way though, a few members still show possibility, but this is a long shot either way .
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6z control gonna crush you guys with secondary CCB lol .
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Really interesting change on euro, eps, control, and even some GEFS members. Some hint at this potential on other models as well Looks like there is a chance ULL redevelops. A bunch of eps members have a secondary strip of heavy snow from this ranging from the mid Atlantic all the way up through NE depending on the track etc… .
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Anyone notice the euro last night? The OP, control, and EPS all of a sudden now redevelop the ULL. A bunch of members actually give us a snowstorm on the redeveloped storm! This would be a shocking development .
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Just think, this time next week the pattern change around 20-21st will only be 6 days away. .
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It’s all we have to look forward to right now tbh .
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Models really like flipping the switch around 20th…. We’ll find out if we get pump faked, but we take for now .
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Right in time for Ji vacation .
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And for Hoffman, colder anomalies building in lol .
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This. Even if the GFS was wrong it did tend to slowly adjust to trends. This new updated GFS is abysmal trainwreck and needs serious work. It’s been horrific this winter. .
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Check these differences out before day 4, lol what in the world .
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This model is horrible. This is 48 hours out dif between 18/00z GFS. My guess is now GFS won’t phase the s/w with tpv piece. .
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This also sort of aligns with MJO phase shift… HECS incoming Jan 25th .
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All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change. .
