Heisy

Much much better than last nights run… .

Euro and GFS still differ greatly with handling that NW energy at 120, gfs phases it and pumps ride behind it & euro is gonna leave it behind and dump in W again it seems. Prefer GFS scenario… .

I agree. Sometimes my ADHD makes it tough for me to explain things. Mind races a million mph lol Having a tough time getting my point across. Guess what I mean is there was a reason last nights 00z eps had such a paltry snow mean. It did get the lower heights to where we want them eventually, but there weren’t any good snow opportunities because of the western ridge and trough dump out west vs the GEFS/GFS camp that’s it. That’s all. Lol. .

I absolutely don’t man. While it wasn’t terrible I don’t agree that last nights 00 EPS was a great run if you read between the lines and see what was actually going on. It got the lower heights to our region but with 2 cutters 13th-16th which also left us in probably a not so snow friendly pattern afterwards. You absolutely can and should use the OPs in comparison with the ensembles to get an idea of what the smoothed out height lines on the ensembles mean. Let’s compare the 00z eps vs the OP at 186 hours.. They both handle the 13th wave pretty similarly, it’s parked over SE Canada at 186 hours. Look at the EPS vs OP at this point out west. There’s a little battle going on it seems on the EPS between some OP like members and some that move the western trough a bit farther E. You dump too much energy out west and this ridge here will be stronger obviously You bring it eastward you get a more GFS like solution which gives us a chance at something around 16-17th. Here is last nights EPS vs 6z GEFS. Spot the difference? Finally EPS developed a ridge but it’s a bit too far E, this looks like a cold/dry/suppression time period before pattern ends if this were to be right. Good news there’s plenty of time for the EPS to evolve. TL/DR I like the GEFS a lot better for us vs last night’s EPS .

End of 6z EPS has that N western conus lobe farther E vs 00z, ridge slightly farther E so that’s a step in positive direction. We gotta keep this crap from dumping out west as much as possible .

And you can see where that leads us down the line with the GFS phased scenario vs unphased. Euro just dumps the N/S out west which is a killer for us as usual .

My opinion, but we We want the GFS to be right on the ridge positioning/phasing the two shortwaves here… This progresses the trough east and creates the opportunities that the GFS shows down the line. Euro/cmc and even eps don’t do this at the moment. At least last night they didn’t. .

I am. If you follow the EPS heights, precip maps, and snow mean tonight it’s generally showing cutter on the 10th, cutter on the 13th, cutter 16-17th, then it dries out at the end of the run. Yea the heights look good but sometimes you have to see through the mean and look at what’s really going on. Where’s the snow on the eps? It’s not there because it’s showing 3 cutters and then cold and dry. I’m not saying it’s right, just showing what I’m seeing… and we have plenty of time for it to change 10th cutter 13th cutter 16th cutter Beyond that it’s cold but the precip/snow mean are paltry. Southern stream dries out and the brief PNA ridge gets pushed into central Conus for what looks like an end of pattern warm up. I know I’ll get bashed for this post, but whatever. Just my opinion on why the snow mean was so low tonight. Hopefully over next few days we see improved threats pop up in the 15th-22nd time frame. .

If tonight’s runs are correct we wait until 18-19th and beyond for any threats for when the lower heights finally push far enough E. Till then the WAR ridge is too strong because of the -PNA. Annoying, but maybe we get lucky with an Archambault event once block has retrograded. If we go cutter, cutter, cutter then cold and dry before warming up then I’ll just delete my wxbell subscription and cliff dive .

February 2-3 1996 .

Yea that storm was a rounded wave overrunning event as well. It was bitterly cold and snowed In the low 20s just like the 18z gfs. I’m sure the GFS will be different in 6 hours but we can dream .

I still don’t think the 13th will cut like the GFS. Regardless, todays 18z gfs reminded me of Feb 2-3 96 .

Btw, 6z eps/control made big steps towards a cmc like solution for the 13th with better confluence and a farther E wave at end of run… I have a feeling 12z runs today might be fun. .

It’s a flat out joke. These are back to back runs under 26 hours. Yea, I guess in a way you can say it’s picked up on some trends at 12z so it adjusted, but what’s the point of running it beyond 24 hours if it does this crap? Always use it as a strictly nowcast tool never a forecasting one beyond a day. Lesson for the newbies .

This is why the NAM needs to be retired already. I guess you can use it for last second trends, but you can never trust it altogether. .

Weenie runs tonight, gfs has a weak sauce lead wave so it’s just a giant cutter for 13th, but it leads to a pretty sick pattern. Cmc a tick or two away from perfection .

Weenie OPs tonight .

Read my post above, sometimes I just feel it . .

Actually it does work just barely. .

Cmc made a big step towards making the 13th wave a player, gfs scenario obv wouldn’t. .

I think the wave on the 13th has some potential. This was the 18z control (just showing as an example). That’s a decent UlL parked over the lakes. Roll it forward and I Wonder if it can fight off that wave and force it farther S/E Here was the 12z euro. I don’t think it would take too much to make this more favorable. Weaker main wave or better confluence. Maybe models adjust to the cosmic barrier .

Lol, I actually am a little intrigued if the 13th cutter works out and trends SE. right about this range is where models could suddenly show a large shift. Euro really wasn’t too far off. .

Yea I bet it Canadian played out it still wouldn’t result .

I’m not making anti-snow predictions. Just calling it how I see it. I want it to snow probably more than anyone on these forums. When it looks like a snowstorm is coming I’ll be excited as anyone, I’m probably the biggest weenie on here, didn’t you catch my posts on New Year’s Eve when we got those good runs? I’m as frustrated as anyone. We’re getting stiffed tomorrow and then the 6z gefs looks like this. All I was saying is our next legit shot is probably post Jan 16th. It’s really unbelievable how long -PNA has been disrupting our patterns during the winter. I guess being that we’re in a strong nino just have to be patient for 2nd half of winter

I have an uncle that lives in Azalea Oregon maybe I’ll set up shop over there, Jesus .