Heisy

This storm relies a lot on what happens to that streamer around the 14th. It ends up turning into our 50/50. We need that to trend stronger .

Can see it even better on the OP. Piece of the TPV pinched off into a 50/50. This was critical. See that trend continue at 12z? Woof .

I know I’ll sound like a weenie, but if we see this trend continue in 50/50 land (look at the improvement in Lower heights in this area 00z eps vs 12z ) this event has historic potential with the amount of energy diving SE. if you get a mechanism to hold down the LP off the coast wow… .

If we can get a piece of the TPV to break off into 50/50 land and see that trend progress the 16-17th event could be a huge one. .

The trend this year seems to be really good 00z runs and horrid 12z runs. Man I really hope we see that trend at 50/50 as we progress next few days .

Euro loves to give HECS when everyone is sleeping .

I need to change my pants, time for bed .

WTH is it trying to do here lol… Looks like a 1960s snow map See how we got some tpv energy left over in 50/50 lane, that saved us .

Maybe I got a little too excited, HECs for interior, solid for us, just a little flatter with slightly better tpv position and we are in line .

Euro about to be a HECS I think .

18z control looks like last nights 00z thru 144. Op and control mirror each other for the most part. This could bode well for 00z… .

Tpv positioning takes big dog out of play if that’s legit, but could def get a light event if you get the right balance of press from the front. It digs too much with the tpv sitting to our N than it’s a rain event, too much and it’s suppressed. Need a proper balance. Wish I had the $ to head to Midwest for these next few events, ya wanna go Ralph? I’ll buy the drinks .

Hey at least one thing is pretty certain, it’s gonna get damn cold for a few days after that front clears .

GEPS has a signal for around the 20th as well .

Need a 50/50 or this is the result, migrating tpv and ni 50/50, SE ridge flexes. .

Euro looks great but like you said a minor shift W with TPV and we lose the cold. Comes down to this… .

Yes agreed. I mentioned in my other post we need to avoid the retrograde or start everything farther E. We find ways to fail these days though so while it’s definitely our next threat I’m sure we’ll find a way to screw jt up. .

Still gonna be N this run, has flatter heights, but trough a bit too far W. TPV initially looked better but still migrating. Bump everything a little E and it’ll work, long way to go Said before the setup reminds me of Feb 2-3 96’ .

6z gfs has better tpv positioning vs 00z, see if it can hold. This is really close to classic… .

Ah yes, I had a good feeling we’d wake up with one weenie run after seeing the 18z EPS. We need to keep the TPV here in SE Canada there, if it migrates W we lose the cold and heights will pump N in the Southeast As is it’s almost perfect, snows in the 20s. Perfect overrunning event long way to go lol .

Giddy up .

The storm we’re potentially tracking for around the 17th is crashing onshore around Oregon at 144 hours. It dives under the trough and then phases with it. The 18z EPS made a really good trend East with the trough. .

Trough maybe a touch too far west to hold the cold we’ll see .

Big one could be forming on the GFS with the 16-18th wave .

Plenty of members on EPS like the 16-18th time frame vs last night. See this time frame here? GFS is farther E with that NW lobe near Montana. If we see the euro trend that way it’ll lead to a weaker wave and it won’t be a cutter. This run phased too much energy and it pumped the ridge up ahead. This is what I’ve been pointing out the last 24 hours. Even with the massive cut there was some front end snow on OP because we actually have antecedent cold. There’s a path to victory here if we get a little lucky. Just for fun to prove my point, the 12z control was a touch farther E with the whole trough and brought more energy E and it lead to this. GFS is on the weak side but it had a solid snowstorm. We find the sweet spot we have a solid threat. .