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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    I’ve said since Jan I loved the sound of the 2/24/24 blizzard… well…. THIS to me looks more conducive for a classic storm than anything I see before imo, but we’ll see It is wayyyy out there obviously .
  2. Heisy
    Either gonna be a huge score for the GFS or an epic fail .
  3. Heisy
    Cmc at least sped up the N/S. I want the Ukie to show something similar and then I’ll get a little excited before the euro .
  4. Heisy
    6z control is not good, sped up the main wave and it drives the SLP over Pa, so the op was going to be bad. If 12z doesn’t correct I’d likely move my focus to 16-18th. This event was always a long shot to begin with since it was the first wave of the pattern change and we have marginal cold air .
  5. Heisy
    Icon hangs energy back like euro but then actually brings it pretty far N, I’ll take that progression though. .
  6. Heisy
    Yes because it’s separating the N/S and main shortwave. Until one camp caves it’s hard to take any run serious. GFS is usually the one that does the caving so I’d lean euro evolution personally. .
  7. Heisy
    Didn’t realize there was a new thread. Here is 18z control. Still way different evolution than GFS. No initial phase and NS heads E. I think this looks decent .
  8. Heisy
    The control has always been the OP run at slightly lower resolution. Next year we won’t have an OP we will be relying on the EPS and control As for the GFS and temps. Who cares? It has a completely different evolution than the euro so until that’s settled it doesn’t matter. This looks like it may have ended up phasing with the second NS piece as well. See what happens at 00z .
  9. Heisy
    18z control improved on 12z. Less compressed flow. Has the same evolution (different than GFS camp) This looks like it was gonna work… .
  10. Heisy
    We’re probably another 24 hours or so of figuring out which progression wins out. Not sure which I prefer honestly. Perfect world to me is a euro progression and a phase with 2nd N/S piece vs GFS where yea you’ll have a stronger storm but there’s no lead wave to reinforce colder temps .
  11. Heisy
    I like where this is headed. N/S pushing ahead (missed phase) but plenty of energy still left in the main shortwave. .
  12. Heisy
    Yep, it’s the one we want, just gotta keep amping it up. A phase you were going to have issue with temps imo. We could still hypothetically back side phase as long as that N/S piece pushes ahead .
  13. Heisy
    Eps lit up .
  14. Heisy
    Yea but if the northern shortwave and the main one don’t have enough separation you’d end up with like a 00z cmc solution. Yea that trend is favorable, but only if the southern main shortwave backs up/slows down a bit there. .
  15. Heisy
    This is similar to what the older GFS runs we’re doing but we need better spacing or it won’t work .
  16. Heisy
    6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes It leaves the southern energy behind. .
  17. Heisy
    It does look like more members hang back the southern energy in the GEFS after looking at H5 .
  18. Heisy
    Yea like I said cmc was a nod towards the GFS. Euro would need to change drastically to get to a GFS solution so hopefully that starts tonight. Need the N/S to race ahead and not phase or it has no shot to snow .
  19. Heisy
    Ukie is in the euro phasing camp, 18z euro control phases the waves even more than 12z so that wasn’t good. We’ll see, need more support before it can be taken serious .
  20. Heisy
    The GFS delays the main wave which allows the N/S to race ahead and supply cold air. Cmc was a nod towards the GFS but it has terrible spacing so nothing comes of it. Euro obviously phased the two waves which would be worst case. Hopefully see the euro go towards the GFS .
  21. Heisy
    Do we really ever do well with snow cover? For me Winter is all about snow falling. Give me 2 feet that melts in 6 hours for all I care ha. Just need some patience right now. The pattern change is coming. The wave near the 13-14th was always a long shot since the cold isn’t established yet. We will have plenty of opportunities 2nd half of Feb into March. By end of week I think threats will start popping up. Could we screw it up? Absolutely, but at least we have a shot. We knew the current pattern offered no chance. We’re getting a PNA ridge, -epo and Atlantic blocking. All you could ask for really. .
  22. Heisy
    I don’t think it’s a coincidence both these models (control, GFs) have absolutely massive blocks at the end of there runs. Looks, it’s possible we get shutout a few days into the pattern change, but I’ll roll the dice with a massive AO block end of Feb into March. Just have to hopefully avoid -PNA and ridge link up. .
  23. Heisy
    Yea suppression is least of my worries. This winter has not lacked precip. Let’s just get the good pattern here and worry about that later .
  24. Heisy
    I’m still intrigued by this period. We normally don’t score during the first wave of a pattern change but I do think if the shortwaves progress correctly we could time something. .
  25. Heisy
    I’d do many illegal things to be here .
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