Heisy

18z eps has better confluence/NS out ahead of main shortwave at end of run .

There’s a big difference between how the pattern has been last 7 days/next few days and end of the month. That’s all I’ve been saying. There’s at least potential there towards end of month. We just need to time things almost perfectly. Just seems we need the absolute perfect H5 setup to get snow these days. .

I mean if you get off on rainstorms, then, I guess? .

Well I’m not a big enough weenie to not realize storm 2 def favors NW. maybe we can get some front end like 12z euro if shortwaves progress right. However if there is another event around the 30th that does the same thing then I give up. Not having blocking right now is devastating .

Not having any blocking is just devastating right now. Hope cmc/GEPS is right so any shortwave around 29/30th is forced farther S. Even here on the gfs for the LR storm, we have a 50/50 but there’s no blocking so the 50/50 keeps moving N .

We all know it’s gonna happen. This stuff makes me want to kick puppies. GFS even finds a way to form a miller B around the 30th that rains on us. If eagles don’t win this weekend I’ll probably lose it .

Here’s the ukie for those wondering, sharing from Philly forum which is why our region is the focus, this is snow depth though. I’ll see if I can get a better image .

It’s a little skewed by like two members that go insane Still, NW where you are is in good spot regardless Euro was able to hold on the cold better because a part of the NS broke ahead and phased with the prior event so we got a little transient 50/50. If that trends stronger and flow trends faster could be a good event Hell, 3” is a HECS at this point even up here in Philly .

How about all the models caving to the GFS with phasing the day Day 4-6 wave. Crazy. See if euro does it at 12z as well. For us down in Philly we need a faster NS, but I really like the setup day 9 suddenly, long way out though obviously. You can see the GFS/CMC races the NS out ahead of the main vort with different degrees of strength and placement. .

That day 8-10 event will be interesting. We’ll see if euro starts showing the NS race ahead like GFS/CMC do today. .

GEFS has the smoothed out setup for around the 30th too. Cold done and some energy in Southwest .

GFS gives us a true good old fashioned SECS around the 30th. Get the cold air here magic can happen .

Nice split flow action forms on the SW, headed to work, but really positive ensemble runs today. Let’s build on it over the next few days. .

18z GEFS coming in a little improved as well for the time period I mentioned .

Not that anyone cares, but right now I’m thinking we have 7-9 days of hell to get through. Maybe the day 5-6 system tracks just right with NS and trailer vort for some front end or NW frozen, then we face the possible cutter around the 26/27th…However, it then finally looks like we could have an opportunity if EPS etc is right. Stealing this from my Philly forum, but the trend is our friend right now. Just another week of patience. If things hold by next weekend we could have something on the radar to track. .

GFS now the only model that’s phasing NS with southern ULL for the day 5-7 system so hard to trust its evolution beyond that. Icon was the only other model and it backed off at 18z

GFS still phasing the NS with the ULL for the day 5-7 system. Rest of guidance says the NS races ahead. Even 18z icon trended that way. So wouldn’t be shocked if GFS caves soon. Having the NS race ahead and keeping good spacing with southern vort could turn it into a hit for you guys especially just inland (like euro) GFS solution gives it no shot right now because of that full phase and no confluence out ahead .

Yes, there is likely a cutter around day 9, beyond that is when the pattern looked really good. .

Maybe the best EPS run in a long time for Jan 27+. Both prior events (24th, 27th) def have potential for you guys up N though .

Maybe one of the best EPS runs we’ve had over the last few weeks for the Jan 27+ period. It does seem like there will be a cutter day 9 but then the cold air is finally ushered in. -EPO, some Atlantic ridging, TPV sitting in a good spot, gotta get it under 7-9 days though .

No, I want a real one, decimate Chicago. Something to get some confluence near our region. Here is control (to show where that big day 9 cutter could lead us), finally pushing the confluence/cold air where we need it at least Here is EPS mean around same time, best shot looks right after that front day 10, which is what I was talking about… .

Honestly, I hope we get a big powerful cutter like the euro/cmc showing in LR. Could at least shake things up and possibly bring colder air SE temporarily .

So each model handling interaction between NS and the main shortwave differently. Euro misses phase, but keeps it far enough E to take advantage of some cold, gfs phased it, cmc misses phase but keeps shortwave well west. Icon has the best interaction obv .

Def a thread the needle event, but good trends towards it. Need the right timing of NS/SS interaction .

12z icon .