Heisy

Finally a model run that times a shortwave right after a TPV dive. GFS and euro still differ, but GFS has been good lately at picking up the large scale features. Models really differ around day 7, few camps. 12z gfs had a mild version of this which impacted Ne, so we’ll see if we can build on this on 00z for once. .

Euro did look interesting at end of run, control is basically the euro extended lol…. So we can dream…def a little window Feb 4-10 but we’ll see. Gotta keep the faith alive! .

Biggest difference I see right now is cmc/euro bury/cutoff energy in west around day 6-7. So far GFS doesn’t do this. Probably why it speeds up everything. We’ll see… .

00z GFS has the Cape storm .

Much better Op run, figured 18z gfs Op was a blip considering ensembles. Cold about to push into our region .

EPS improvements vs 00z .

12z eps coming in a lot better than 00z. Actually have a really nice -epo with pv on our side… Roll this forward you could see how it def gives us a window of real opportunity .

I think that period Cape posting is probably the wave that ushers in the cold and gets the lower heights over E/SE Canada. Hope I’m wrong, but either way if things hold maybe a solid window Feb 4/5-10 .

That’s the way it works sometimes. Just keeping hope alive, this is GFS and CMC at day 10, we ain’t getting snow out of that pattern. .

OP run, but eventually we get the PV north of us, this would be a more “workable” pattern rolling forward for any energy that will cut underbeath .

Looks like next viable pattern won’t be until around Feb 5-10, everything getting dumped into SW before then, but it has to move east eventually right lol .

I mean this is the pattern at time of the storm, not really a SECS look. We’re boned until blocking shows up or the PV somehow migrates far enough SE .

Can you imagine eagles Dallas NFC chip? That would be amazing. Atmosphere would be insane .

It’s more because energy keeps dumping into the southwest. Just a natural response to that .

-EPO could push PV south, but -PNA and no blocking could make the SE ridge flex. Making it another decent pattern for Midwest/NNE as we head into Feb. Sigh… .

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it… .

To answer Ralph’s question I get most of my joy in this hobby tracking/chasing the big one and watching heavy snow fall. Main reason Ive chased events over the last 10 years. Finally last year I chose ground zero for an event. I don’t care if we get 12” in May. Of course I’m not going to complain about having it stick around. I pretty much agree with Cape, could luck into something end of month, nothing really popping yet but potential is there for that to happen. Then we hope for a reload end of month. .

Just one of those years… Night all. Can’t do anything about it. Here’s both events .

It still does bring NS across unlike GFS, so we’ll see if it’s able to damper the cut at all .

Euro digging storm 2 into Mexico lol… I hate this winter man .

Who caves first EPS or GEFS for 2nd storm progression? Day 6 euro/eps have NOrthern stream energy streaming across first which lowers heights. GFS doesnt. Find out soon… .

Cmc does break some NS energy out ahead of main ULL, but nothing like 12z euro/eps We’ll find out in about 45 mins .

Here is proper time stamp… Only draw back for GEFS caving is Canadian evolution is more similar to GFS .

EPS (18z) vs GEFS (00z) day 6 Completely different, euro, colder solution brings NS ahead. One side is going to cave very soon Knowing this winter… Woops I picked the wrong times, but same idea .

Wave is def flatter and in the 12z icon/ukie camp, but it’s the NAM at 84 hours. I’m really hoping we see a change for storm 2 on 00z models. The 18z EPS is encouraging. Both the euro and gfs differentiate on how they get there for storm two 12z euro (and now 18z) break a northern stream shortwave out ahead of the main one, this lessens heights and reinforced a little cold. GFS doesn’t do this at all. GFS was super amped with this next event last couple days so hopefully we see a trend S tonight. For us to get snow out of system two we need that wave near the Lakes in the euro part of the gif to trend stronger. The main wave trended flatter won’t hurt either .