Heisy

Euro all alone with this idea though so who knows .

This looks like a 6z control progression but spacing not gonna be enough .

Euro might be similar to 6z control with delayed wave .

My concern on full display off the 12z GEPS, If this the progression models are honing in on root the hell out of the 14th wave to trend stronger since there’s no other reinforcing cold shots Strong phase you’re basically boned in DC and Philly Do these maps all seem similar? Unfortunately… .

Oh, I’d take the GFS In a second. Try to explain what I meant…. Here are all 12z runs at 126 hours With this progression you play a dangerous game with how strong the wave can be. Can easily have a N trend in this setup as models tend to always have better phasing as we get closer. Us having snow vs rain just comes down to how strong/sharp the shortwave and trough are This progression…. You’d have absolutely no issues with cold as the second lead wave dampens the flow. It is what it is we’ll see I’d def not be upset with 4-7” of smoke .

I know on paper the GFS looks good, and this might sound confusing, but I personally am not a fan of the GFS or rest of todays 12z runs so far. I was hoping we’d see a trend towards the 6z control progression of clearing the front first and then developing a second low. The cmc/Ukie/icon/ gfs all have similar evolutions now, I’m just worried that we’re seeing the GFS colder/SE bias at play. If todays guidance so far is correct we’re basically limiting the ceiling here and seriously would have issues with temps being too warm. A control like progression would give us no worries for it being too amped and would give us a chance at an historic major event imo. We can still cash in on the current progression advertised, but meh. See what wrinkle euro throws in here shortly .

Cmc won’t be good as it emphasizes more of the lead wave, no separation probably way too warm but idk for sure based on B&W maps .

So we’re def not seeing separation like the 6z control, but this might still work out as a modest event .

But you can bet your butt I’ll overreact positively if they show big hits lol .

Agreed, just pointing it out, models are def not gonna have any kind of agreement today with those trailer waves and how/if they work out. So I wouldn’t panic one way or another regardless of what 12z does .

I think GFS is gonna be a big improvement vs 6z based on what I’m seeing early. Watch GFS become our snowiest model by the end of the day

Better TPV press so far vs 6z .

Using the icon as an example of what we want to see. That right shortwave we want to press on farther E and have our main low develop from the trailer. If it develops a low on the lead wave like the icon does that won’t work for us for the most part .

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Exactly, that’s why the 6z run is pretty startling to me. We’re at that range still where we can still see large evolution shifts. Was it a blip? And remember it doesn’t really match up with EPS timing because if the control was right the trailer wave lags another day behind which would extend beyond 144 hours. You have the EPS dumping snow on us by 144 yet the control is still developing the low so there’s a big discrepancy here. 12z is gonna be mighty interesting All I know is if you want a big snowstorm in VA etc,root for that control scenario Edit: just about every scenario still on the table, and we can still snow with other evolutions as well, I was just very surprised to see that control run. Offers a new possibility

Control is just the OP run at lower resolution. Like here is last nights 00z comparison. I expect 12z to throw in some wrinkles Edit: woops I posted different hours but you get the idea .

Yes, what the control is doing is exactly what you’d want for a MECS for the SE/Midsantic. and what’s interesting is the OP and control are generally exactly the same up to day 6-7. Check out prior runs H5 is mirrored every run. 12z should be really interesting. Wonder if that perks Psuhoffman up .

Control has a way different evolution than 00z. This was gonna be interesting to say the least .

Here’s the “skip” on the cmc as well. We need that second low to develop faster and closer to the coast, like the euro or better .

The way we sort of failed tonight on the models runs is certainly feasible. I wouldn’t discount these solutions at all. We still need the right spacing and timing of all the shortwaves involved. Cmc/ GEFS shows that method of failure where you have the stalled out front near TN valley and then once the main shortwave finally redevelops it’s too late except for NYC/NE whatever. So much to figure out I wouldn’t panic about this one until we get around 96 hours. 6z gfs can easily suddenly be a huge hit. I’ve seen it a million times in these situations You see how the snow mean kind of skips us? That’s from the redevelopment factor and it’s def possible. .

If we get this under 72 hours I want Randy to host a radio show. I miss those days .

Can see the jet backed up a touch, not that it matters much either way we’ll have a 00z run soon enough .

I think it was going to be much stronger event farther S. Like possible develop in time to snow farther S, not necessarily N .

Control at 132, this looks like a major storm developing .

My guess thru 120 is EPS would come in a touch less amped. Main wave touch farther E .