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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Worth watching but I think that 50/50 isn’t exactly at 50/50. Little too far N. Would need the shortwave to take an almost perfect track or see that trend S idk .
  2. Heisy
    Yea, if you go back and look at the euro from a few nights ago it got all the TPV energy out ahead of the southern ULL. Now the models have energy rotating N of the southern vort, just no space for it to come north. Shame .
  3. Heisy
    That was brutal 00z as expected. That day 9-10 event on the GFS had the Hp build in too late, but it’s absolutely horrible how nothing can go right. Praying for a March miracle, but at this rate just don’t see it happening. Some winters nothing goes right and this is def one of those .
  4. Heisy
    Disastrous 12z runs. This winter needs to die. Go Birds .
  5. Heisy
    Yea and 6z cmc trended better you can tell wave 1 would have ended farther S vs 00z (yes there is a 6z cmc but it only goes out to 84 hours, and no it isn’t the then) .
  6. Heisy
    CMC had a pumped up wave 1 as well fwiw. Btw if you bought icon solution verbatim it would be worst case scenario because it leaves no energy out west for wave 2, it’s likely out to lunch though…. .
  7. Heisy
    It’s still snowing here .
  8. Heisy
    Epic euro run for this winter, The Heisy lives! .
  9. Heisy
    Alright I lied, one more post lol…. Here was cmc early on, if that southern energy is slower/NS energy faster then you have a lot more room for low to form. As is, with this winter I’d prefer things to look squashed at this range anyway .
  10. Heisy
    Won’t make another post unless euro does something fun tonight, but huge steps in right direction tonight for this event. Pretty sure 00z icon was going to lead to a MECS. Both GFS and CMC were strength/timing changes from being a lot better Night all .
  11. Heisy
    Yep, timing was a bit off with NS energy so it got squashed, but it wasn’t far off from doing what we wanted. .
  12. Heisy
    00z cmc was a little bit off from showing a big event. As is gets some light snow into the mid Atlantic This was setup leading into it, just a little slower with southern energy and this is a great setup. .
  13. Heisy
    This is a much better look, not sure if it will deliver but isn’t holding the energy all the way back towards California this run. Out ahead is more of like a post frontal event .
  14. Heisy
    Icon at end of run. still think gfs is out to lunch holding energy so far back. Think we’re closer to an event on the models then people think. Just gotta get lucky for once .
  15. Heisy
    GFS left a ton of energy behind so there wasn’t as big of a cold push up top with the initial front, euro is on the other side of spectrum with only leaving a little behind. Need a perfect balance like Control. Or somehow get lucky with some kind of post fropa/anafront if trough goes positive idk…. .
  16. Heisy
    The 12z Euro control leaves energy behind just like GFS. This is the progression we want models to show if we want a good snowstorm. We pray Wish we could get Op to show this .
  17. Heisy
    So starting to get a feel on how the pattern might progress. Guess a lot is going depend on how much energy is left behind the front day 7…. Here is euro, gfs, and Canadian at same hour. Can see GFS leaves most energy behind which formed that event day 10 or so. .
  18. Heisy
    Yea, this winter every time we get a good run on the models it’s in the day 9-10+ range and gone 6 hours later. Can we get lucky one time? .
  19. Heisy
    This is the time frame I’ve been talking about for days now. It’s after the cold arrives, just gotta hope we keep strong confluence. Window is there we just hope and pray. The 12z euro at end of run seemed to hint at same thing forming. .
  20. Heisy
    Still believe best hope is around Feb 4-7 once the tpv/cold air pushes east. For example Here is 6z GFS once that finally happens. The window is there once the SER is finally diminished temporarily. Probably will fail again, but nothing has changed imo. Just see if we can get lucky during that time frame. .
  21. Heisy
    Nah the pv phases with the low so there’s no confluence ahead… this is more in line with how other models/ensembles have been showing progression. .
  22. Heisy
    Run still may be able to produce if the wave out west is timed well with TPV dive. Need proper timing and spacing to get the confluence out ahead of any shortwave that comes east .
  23. Heisy
    As you can see vs 18z…. Knew it was a long shot it would hold, we’ll see what happens .
  24. Heisy
    00z gfs going with the other models with burying the energy in the west, so it will have a completely different solution than 18z…. Still could be good for early Feb we’ll see .
  25. Heisy
    I obviously hope 18z GFS is sniffing something other than glue. There are a few hits on ensembles for same time frame. Still, it could be rushing things, and the period Feb 4-10 still has legs. Hope is something can undercut the cold dome here. Though, maybe we get lucky and GFS is picking up on something before other models. .
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