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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    Agreed, i think 14-16th period looks fantastic, my Negativity today was more towards this 10-11th range where we saw the euro yesterday blow up an event because it ejected the energy out west faster. Tonight GFS still not pushing energy along. Canadian does but it’s kind of sloppy. GFS still looks solid as we move beyond the 11th… .
  2. Heisy
    Right now I’m not buying the potential around the 10-11th after today’s runs. You want to sell me 15-17th, that has more legs because the cold def looks to be established by then, but that’s even more in fantasy land. Just seeing too much of a push towards burying the energy out west and delaying any transfer. I’d imagine we’ll see EPS go that direction tonight. Hope I’m wrong :/ 18z snow mean is horrid through 360 hours, but that’s to be expected since the OP didn’t really manage anything until the big one at the very end of the run
  3. Heisy
    I’m with you Ralph, the snow mean also favors cutters. There are some hits mixed in but once again….you guys are the pros and a lot smarter than me. I’m just a weenie. I was hyped after I saw yesterday’s 12z run, but something isn’t sitting right with me after todays 12z runs. I’m not all giddy like a few others .
  4. Heisy
    So eps doesn’t bury the energy as much as OP, that’s a plus….. .
  5. Heisy
    Not sure I see it that way you guys do. I see the same BS with models dumping tons of energy in southwest that never seems to want to come east. Promotes way too much ridging ahead of it. Like I mentioned this morning. We went from 12z showing this pac energy around day 7-10 headed east much faster on yesterdays euro, to this….we’re also seeing agreement on it from the Canadian and gfs. May have to wait till 15th-20th for a storm threat if this happens…which is fine and still fits the progression date, but we’re getting closer and closer to April at that point .
  6. Heisy
    No I agree, I’ve been around the block. I’m just getting a little impatient these days .
  7. Heisy
    While things don’t look bad, I was a little disappointed in seeing the OP/eps delay ejecting that western energy vs yesterdays 12z porn run. Here is 00z vs 12z OP comparison. I know it’s an OP run 10 days out, just saying. .
  8. Heisy
    EPS is drool worthy .
  9. Heisy
    Yes, check out the temps. We have cold available because of the -epo and block. This is the best setup you can ask for in March imo. That’s HECS territory, but it’s day 9-10+ so… .
  10. Heisy
    This is what you want to see in March. A retrograded block can cause some crazy stuff to happen in March. You pin that block there and any incoming energy would dig and dig under it. This probably would have lead to a really big event. Though this looks a lot better than GFS .
  11. Heisy
    It’s actually not a bad setup for overrunning but this year’s 50/50 and confluence always backup as we get closer to events. .
  12. Heisy
    It’s actually not a bad setup for overrunning but this year’s 50/50 and confluence always backup as we get closer to events. .
  13. Heisy
    All about the rates. This can go either way right now. Would absolutely love if the EPS comes in like cmc ensembles. .
  14. Heisy
    See how the trough is positively tilted with leaving the main energy in Texas? That needs to happen. If the trough progresses without a lead edge shortwave dampening the flow there won’t be sufficient cold air and you’ll just have a basic cutter cold front. I like how the euro trended towards doing this. Still, won’t feel confident at all based on our history this winter until we get major models on board under day 5. .
  15. Heisy
    Let him live his best life .
  16. Heisy
    Not that anyone would really complain, it’s impressive that much snow falls without a full secondary development like Euro. Gearing up for a chase, common Boston do your magic .
  17. Heisy
    It’s still not a euro type solution thiuhh, still gets the job done, but it doesn’t phase the other NS energy. Main shortwave just gets it done on its own strength. .
  18. Heisy
    I need this one Will, for you guys and for Me. I would 100% chase this. Haven’t even seen a dusting here in Philly I’m in a bad way lol. .
  19. Heisy
    Euro doesn’t have a good enough NS push ahead of the main shortwave. Doesnt establish as good of a block vs gfs either by that time. Setup is there, it’s close at H5, but with this winters general theme have 0 expectations. .
  20. Heisy
    .
  21. Heisy
    18z gfs with the HECS setup tease, everybody drink! .
  22. Heisy
    Yea would have to imagine you’d get at least one storm threat by mid March if that verifies. .
  23. Heisy
    Man, 12z GFs goes nuts with blocking this run .
  24. Heisy
    Yea seeing first legit signal for NAO. Might have to endure -PNA for a bit… hopefully not rest of season…. .
  25. Heisy
    Starting to see some signal for NAO at end of ensembles, but nothing conclusive yet. Just hoping for one event before end of year (Philly resident) .
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