Heisy

Tombo over on our Philly forum summed it pretty nicely. 150% better than I could. Hope he doesn’t mind me posting his quote. I’d be interested in seeing the H5 progression of the 18z GEFS members that develop a mid Atlantic storm for around 11th and how they got there. My whole point about the EPS was not having a good cold source because of the ride position. “I mean you have a ton of high latitude blocking that is forcing big time cold for this time of the year south. Few things that I think need to be corrected before you can start honking for a snow event. For starters, ridge position out west is right on the coast, which argues more for going west. We do have a strong block in place, but there is no high pressure pinned under that to really entrench the cold air, so need see lower hgts offset ridging. I would like to see more lower hgts trapped underneath the block to offset the ridging that swings in place. Heisy mentioned this and I agree, the eps that far out are broad brushing the below normal hgts to much, just think of it as if there is more agreement on a low pressure those blues will be concentrated more so and you would see more ridging out ahead of that low. That ridging placement is sw flow and bringing in the warmer temps. That is where you need stronger lower hgts trapped under the block, to really offset the ridging that is out ahead of this storm due to how deep it is and wanting to go west. Its kind of the same theme all year long. These storms that enter into the baja just have so much time to amplify and go ham west of our longitude. Thats why a nice PNa ridge is sweet because they go down the front side of the ridge and amplify in the south and tap gulf moisture and come north. Not enter baja cali and amplify in the plains which is what you are seeing here. The airmass will be plenty fine if we can get lower hgts to combat the ridging out ahead of this. The main checklist is, you need a cold source, end of story. Whether it be a high anchored in prior or one coming into the system that it can tap. Right now it doesn't have the high but if we get lower hgts that will supply the cold. “ .

It does have some support though looking at Canadian and UKIE, JMA a bit too. I wouldn’t write off the GFS evolution yet. I’ve thought all along that our best shot will be at end of pattern change, more towards mid month or so. Either way I agree, we “should” get something out of this. Would just be nice to get some snow snow up on an OP run under 9-10 days soon lol. Patience is dried up honestly. .

Yes exactly. If eps is right we’d want to see the ULL around lakes progress a little faster east leaving some room for backside trough to amplify. Right now everything is just too far N and not spaced right, we also don’t really have agreement on how the pac energy and PNA ridge evolve. As Ji said it would be nice to actually get some damn blue over the mid Atlantic on one OP or ensemble run .

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GFS and Euro still worlds apart around Day 5 with how they handle the PAC energy. .

Certainly a possibility, not arguing the potential isn’t there. My whole point was basically stating why the snow mean on the EPS favors Ne and Canada at the moment. This 12z suite put all its eggs in the lead wave. .

One for the ages. I failed photoshop class, while you obviously earned honors. Im still right though! Verbatim it’s not an ideal look for the Mid-Atlantic, yet… key word, yet. If we see changes on upcoming OP/EPS runs that make positive steps to a better winter storm I’ll be the first one on board… Spot the difference

Yea, but the lead isn’t. What we’re seeing is the pattern change and not necessarily a good storm threat because of the lead in. We’ll see what happens, we’re all rooting for the same thing. .

My point illustrated like a 6 year old….. we need better push from “X” to allow more spacing for “L” because of the ridge linkup leading into the event. 12z run yesterday did this. Todays eps favors snow in NE and lakes because of the spacing issue between X and L here… long way to change this and allow better amplification for backside low… .

…and this is exactly what I mean… .

I’ll be in the minority here and don’t want to get flamed, but I just don’t agree. It kind of looks like a smoothed out version of the OP. The lead up to that wave still has too much Ridge link up that’s why the lead wave on all the OP models and ensembles favors snow into the Midwest and lakes. The only hope is for a low to develop on the backside of that trough, a miller B. Looks like EPS does that but mostly favors NE. Not trying to be negative. We’re still far out I just think the devil is in the details here… .

Fun way to fail on the euro today. Hard to buy euro at all considering other models not bringing energy eastward. .

This likely won’t “cut” it, actually it will probably cut lol, this winter lol .

This was possibly a trend towards GFS Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OP Can see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z .

Looks like the western trough ticked W at 90hrs on 18z Euro, ensemble/control rolling now. .

I know we’re speaking 10 days out but this is an absolutely huge difference for a mean. Like Brooklyn said we need a few days to shake things out. Just hope at this point… .

I probably have PTSD from the next event upcoming. I realize GEFS ensemble will almost always follow OP, but I really really want to see a fast reversal by 12z tomorrow. .

Awesome, looks like GEFS went towards the OP, this winter… .

Euro at least has some support with Canadian, JMA, ensembles etc. just the way this winter works the least favorable model ends up always winning. Can we get lucky just one time? .

I compared wrong hours my bad… just a little different… .

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GFS still much different vs euro and Canadian with the pac energy. Going to take a few more days for models to start to agree on how that energy comes east. .

Control always follows the OP to an extent. Idk the science behind it exactly. It’s lower resolution so smooths things out a bit. It probably wouldn’t be as good at picking up CAD etc. Need a met. to explain, just basing this on observation. Not that it matters at all, but I do think the OP would have probably gone inland a bit, but would have def had a lot of WAA snows ahead of the low. We’re 10-12 days out, models still figuring out how that Pac energy will progress east. We have the overall indexes on our side so at this point all we can do is hope. By end of weekend hopefully we have a legit threat to track. .

Maybe digging a little too fast this run, but holy moly. EPS will probably go bonkers this run with an op run like this .

30 year anniversary, oof .