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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    One day, maybe not this year, but sometime in the future we’ll get one of those epic runs with an event around day 6-7 that actually trends the right way. The pain is worth the glory. It snowed at my house today for like 15 minutes, just those few flakes made me want a snowstorm so much more. .
  2. Heisy
    Never mind just saw this , we need 00z data to pick up some big changes… still hope for mid month thouh not losing faith regardless. This whole process reminds me a lot of December .
  3. Heisy
    Not sure I saw it posted but 18z eps trended worst. More ridging and stronger energy coming into play…control worst than 12z… hard to put much stock into the GEFS .
  4. Heisy
    GEFS looks very similar to 12z Canadian and JMA fwiw. Snow mean still favors interior but we def take. Early on in the run the GEFS looked worst since ridge was stronger, but it seems some members are retrograding the energy back in the PAC allowing for weaker wave to eject east. This was what Cape was alluding to earlier. Compare this region to the OP at same hour .
  5. Heisy
    So we’ve been down this road before where GEFS is always a little SE of Op, but this is exactly why ensembles are used. It always takes the GFS a full 24 hours to get a run out of its system. The ensemble being this much different is exactly why we have ensembles, def hope for 00z and going forward, I’ll give y’all that. I didn’t expect that at all .
  6. Heisy
    18z GEFS actually trended more favorably .
  7. Heisy
    Ukie, Icon, EPS, Euro, two runs of the GFS, Canadian (which is the closest run of day to an event is still inland)… pretty much everything is leaning towards ejecting the energy as one strong wave now and there’s nothing kknocking down ridge. You def nailed the pattern, and you’re one of my favorite posters on here. However, the data is screaming at us today. It’s been the same theme all year around this time frame. At some point gotta realize things aren’t looking good. .
  8. Heisy
    Great post. We can’t catch a break can we? It’s really a damn shame. At least models quickly changed today and didn’t tease us within 4-5 days. Time to shift focus to 14-17th honestly, which is the time frame I’ve felt good about all along. We fail there then whatever it’s time for spring .
  9. Heisy
    Euro looks exactly like this at 90 hours so not really sure how great this would end up being. The lead edge of trough shoots straight NNE instead of E and doesn’t do anything to the ridging out ahead of it, then main energy comes east and it’s lights out. .
  10. Heisy
    Exactly, which is why I’ve been stressing about the energy either ejecting out in pieces or a lot weaker. Todays runs are drilling a much stronger wave coming out west and we’re just cooked if that’s the case. I got a little excited for about 6 hours between 00z cmc and 6z gfs showing weak wave getting squeezed under the block but models quickly adjusted. The GFS’s insane odd run is just it’s own way of trending towards a cutter like solution imo. .
  11. Heisy
    This is a better look and overall pattern for mid Atlantic snow imo .
  12. Heisy
    Here is 58’ lead up, see how the wave is on the weak side, it’s just pinned under the block, then 6z GFS came out and I got super excited at seeing a very similar evolution… …… And then since it’s 2023 models amped then hell out of the lead wave…. It’s a pretty big red flag :/ .
  13. Heisy
    Love your PBP randy, half the fun is everyone’s reactions to great runs. We all want it. I thought Ji was being sarcastic towards you, idk…. On to ensembles…. .
  14. Heisy
    That’s certainly one hope, but ugh…. I really thought we had made strides at 6z, was seeing light at end of tunnel, then 6z eps came out and worried me and GFS pulled the rug out. This winter blows bro. .
  15. Heisy
    Yea maybe we can get some WAA before things blast through, but if we want a pure major snowstorm not a chance if the euro is correct with how strong the wave is. Go look at last nights cmc and check the strength of the initial shortwave. It’s perfect, not too strong and gets pinned under the block like you said .
  16. Heisy
    My concern at 6z seems valid again. We just don’t want that strong of a shortwave coming east idc what anyone says s Yea maybe NE it doesn’t matter, but here it does. This will likely cut even though the block is doing its best .
  17. Heisy
    PAC evolution early on still giving the models a crap ton of issues. Thought at 6z we were starting to see some clearance, but nothing is easy in this hobby lol .
  18. Heisy
    Hard to take this run at face value because of how different GFS/CMC are with evolution…. Lean on ensembles today. .
  19. Heisy
    Same theme all winter with storms wanting to dig to Baja. Good news is cmc looks somewhat similar to 00z at 144 on black and white maps .
  20. Heisy
    Cough, cough…. Lol wth man .
  21. Heisy
    Sure if blocking trends stronger maybe a stronger vort turns into a bowling ball of sorts and tracks east under the block. All I’m doing is simple observation and seeing what the 00z euro/cmc 6z gfs did to get where they did and seeing what we’d want to happen. Don’t think we want it as strong as the 6z eps/control that’s all. .
  22. Heisy
    I’m worried about it developing way too far inland as it tracks east like 00z OP euro….Here is GFS and 6z control (which is basically a smoothed version of the OP) at same point. Euro isn’t king to me though anymore so whatever. Just seeing how the cmc and gfs go about forming a big storm neither had hay shortwave digging that far south .
  23. Heisy
    just compare it to cmc and gfs…. Don’t think we want that strong of a wave coming out of the west. .
  24. Heisy
    6z eps trended stronger with incoming wave at end of run, thinking we’d like to start reversing that soon… .
  25. Heisy
    Now that will work, it’s anmiller B like I mentioned today but releases the perfect amount of energy East which then gets stuck under the block .
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