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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    I’d imagine the eps will be upgraded though .
  2. Heisy
    Been told by Tom on our forum it means no more OP euro, it’ll only be the control and ensemble ran. Curious why they’d be doing this? Cost issues? .
  3. Heisy
    Icon ftw? One time .
  4. Heisy
    The 18z GfS is a step towards the progression the ensembles are showing. Epo ridge building, that western trough will eventually come E. We’re just in a waiting period and possibly a break your shorts out period until it does .
  5. Heisy
    There’s really no mechanism to get it N. It’s just really based on how much latitude it has as it comes E. Terp is right our shot was if that ULL had trended West so that it could have phased. That’s not happening now. Outside the elevations of SE this one is likely a loser. It’s okay I’m gearing up for 2/24/24 blizzard .
  6. Heisy
    Positives for LR I think… That western trough isn’t cutting off like 12z run, we want that to come East as fast as possible. There is probably going to be a solid 2-3 days warmup as the ridge moves through .
  7. Heisy
    Probably have a Rainer before the blues finally make it to us, but then we’ll likely have a favorable pattern 2nd half of Feb. would be nice to get a NAO .
  8. Heisy
    This doesn’t look like torch to me .
  9. Heisy
    Pretty big shift with the ULL near NE on 6z eps. It gives us (especially mid Atlantic) a path to victory here if that thing can keep trending E. Wonder if we see some large scale changes at 12z today…. .
  10. Heisy
    That annoying Barney shot ULL needs to move east or west, where it’s at now on the euro won’t work. East could allow it to come N, W could allow it to phase better. Still in range where we could see large changes. .
  11. Heisy
    End of cmc ensembles finally get us to that weeklies look .
  12. Heisy
    Yea actually has the same phase that euro showed yesterday just a little sloppier. That’s our path to victory it seems, unless models start moving that ULL much farther E .
  13. Heisy
    If we want a snowstorm the cmc offers a lot better chance. GFS we have no shot with the shredder sitting over us… .
  14. Heisy
    Cmc still pretty different with its handling of the ULL near Ne in the long range .
  15. Heisy
    Not sure it was mentioned but end of 18z control didn’t have the shredder ULL sitting over us at 144 vs 12z runs. Looked like it was going to form a nice 50/50 though still Could argue for the main low to be able to come farther N .
  16. Heisy
    I know this storm isn’t really allowed to be talked about here. I do think there was another system in the 90s that had a similar weird phase like this. It’s not impossible but I’m sure we’ll see it be completely different in 12 hours. Most likely scenario is it the southern low just gets swung out to sea with the shredder sitting there .
  17. Heisy
    Yea so I don’t think it’s gonna play out how the euro just spit out. Lol. Almost looks like march 4-6 2001 type vibe with both ULLs merging, but farther South. Still, have to monitor what happens with the shredder and the main wave. Delicate balance like I said before. .
  18. Heisy
    This run is probably a 1/10000000 type progression lol. There’s no way those two waves interact like that at our latitude lol .
  19. Heisy
    Lol common… euro actually phasing both ULLs, this will get wild here… .
  20. Heisy
    Nothing can come N with that sitting there but I don’t think it’ll end up looking like that. Just personal feeling you usually don’t see ULLs that close together like that. Looks goofy .
  21. Heisy
    Euro has that ULL sitting over us, lot different than cmc which is on its own with its handling with that. Idk if any event will be able to make it up to us with that sitting there though…. .
  22. Heisy
    Not sure anything will come of it this run. A lot of the energy from our wave got left behind in the other trough still out in the PAC. Too weak this run .
  23. Heisy
    I don’t think the 12z GFS will have as strong of a shredder over us based on what I’m seeing around 132 hours .
  24. Heisy
    Fun days ahead with this omega block. Gonna see all sorts of wild runs. We have to see how strong the “shredder” ends up being. Congrats DT, Jesus Christ 2-3’ in VA it’s still snowing at the end of the run .
  25. Heisy
    One of wildest H5 runs I’ve seen in a while .
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