Heisy

Euro much weaker energy heading east and still has the completely different evolution vs gfs .

Let’s hope this overall look holds for 270 hours. 00z ukie barely brings any energy East, kind of looks like the icon, and results in this lol… .

Need to figure out what’s causing shortwaves to continually just dump into the southwest. .

GEFS making a big trend towards OP, GEFS can change on a dime with new data, but should be interesting which model suite wins the battle. .

Have to imagine once gfs has enough new data ingested we’ll see that evolution shifttowards the rest of guidance. Not saying it will result in a snowstorm as we saw with cmc/euro, but at least more of a shot than a cold front lol .

Randy will appreciate this… .

Yea something has to give soon…. They’re still not even in the same ballpark. A euro/cmc type evolution at least gives NW a chance depending on strength of lead wave, gfs evolution is lights out. .

18z gfs vs euro at same hour, day 5, like common….one model is going to be severely wrong .

Still no cave with pac progression on GFS. Here it is vs euro at day 5…like wow what a difference… .

Interaction with the lead wave and one left behind caused this thing to go N, lead wave being slightly stronger didn’t help either. The fact that it went that far N and NE still got a snowstorm says something though… first image note the spacing between the two waves out west, not good, they morph into one low(Not sure it’s helping or hurting us, but the incoming pac energy is a lot faster this run too. Might help speed it up a bit, or since we’re losing +PNA behind the event won’t allow it to dig as far S I’m just hoping for a big event to chase, think I’m Toast down here in Philly so rooting for you guys. .

Ukie on side of cmc/euro etc, has weaker energy though…. Gfs will cave by tonight .

Gfs vs cmc vs euro. Spot the differences (hint, look near NW US) , gfs will cave by 00z. .

Yea but that type of progression with the key pieces is only way this will work. Maybe in future runs cmc has weaker energy eject east at a better latitude. It’s euro-like with main players. We could potentially work that with. GFS progression is just wildly different and has no shot at anything .

CMC holds into primary too long, but overall progression of key pieces similar to euro. .

Like common, lol….I expect gfs to cave eventually .

Gfs evolution won’t work, here is cmc at 126 vs gfs, see the differences with how it ejects the pac energy? They are WORLDs apart .

CMC at 144, the cmc/icon are in different stratospheres vs GFS, like completely different .

6z control (basically smoothed out version of euro) vs 6z gfs. Huge differences in PAC with that epo ridge and the energy that retrogrades. My theory is that GFS had a run with some poor initialization and it needed a few runs to get it out of its system. Probably see the GFS do a full on cave with that progression by end of the day. Maybe even by 12z we’ll see. Now, eps still doesn’t mean snowstorm for I-95, but at least it gives us a shot vs the GFS insane digging scenario. .

PAC differences 117 hours GFS vs euro. .

We’ll it’s a bowling ball that has already peaked. Need a few ticks South and east if euro is to be believed, just hope the pac evolution is correct. .

So I’ll admit I was way wrong with euro, thing was the main wave was stronger but euro did something unlike GFS, it retrograded the rest of the energy back into the PAC. This is way to win I guess and was what some models were showing yesterday etc… .

Can tell already euro will be way amped, stronger wave. Writing is on the wall folks…. .

And I also wonder if 18z GEFS didn’t initialize with the same data as the OP because the 00z absolutely caved. .

10-11th period is obviously over. You gotta hand it to the GFS. It’s been good lately at sniffing changes in pattern before other models. Even with tonight’s storm it was the first to bring it well west. Yea it sometimes still drops too much snow in WAA areas etc. I feel like it’s handling the pac better than other models for whatever reason. Euro/EPS no longer king anymore, upgrades to GFS really showing this year. 10 years ago GFS would be showing this storm to be a HECS right now. Moving focus beyond that, we fail whatever, but my chips have been all in for 14-21st and that hasn’t changed for me. .

The problem I see here is the rest of the data we have is going the same direction. We didn’t have one model run today outside maybe the JMA that gave us snow with a decent H5 SLP track. Even the 18z GEFS which we seem to be putting all our money on still favors interior based on the snow mean. When the OP GFS came in way amped last week with this current system we all thought it was out to lunch too… .