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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes It leaves the southern energy behind. .
  2. Heisy
    It does look like more members hang back the southern energy in the GEFS after looking at H5 .
  3. Heisy
    Yea like I said cmc was a nod towards the GFS. Euro would need to change drastically to get to a GFS solution so hopefully that starts tonight. Need the N/S to race ahead and not phase or it has no shot to snow .
  4. Heisy
    Ukie is in the euro phasing camp, 18z euro control phases the waves even more than 12z so that wasn’t good. We’ll see, need more support before it can be taken serious .
  5. Heisy
    The GFS delays the main wave which allows the N/S to race ahead and supply cold air. Cmc was a nod towards the GFS but it has terrible spacing so nothing comes of it. Euro obviously phased the two waves which would be worst case. Hopefully see the euro go towards the GFS .
  6. Heisy
    Do we really ever do well with snow cover? For me Winter is all about snow falling. Give me 2 feet that melts in 6 hours for all I care ha. Just need some patience right now. The pattern change is coming. The wave near the 13-14th was always a long shot since the cold isn’t established yet. We will have plenty of opportunities 2nd half of Feb into March. By end of week I think threats will start popping up. Could we screw it up? Absolutely, but at least we have a shot. We knew the current pattern offered no chance. We’re getting a PNA ridge, -epo and Atlantic blocking. All you could ask for really. .
  7. Heisy
    I don’t think it’s a coincidence both these models (control, GFs) have absolutely massive blocks at the end of there runs. Looks, it’s possible we get shutout a few days into the pattern change, but I’ll roll the dice with a massive AO block end of Feb into March. Just have to hopefully avoid -PNA and ridge link up. .
  8. Heisy
    Yea suppression is least of my worries. This winter has not lacked precip. Let’s just get the good pattern here and worry about that later .
  9. Heisy
    I’m still intrigued by this period. We normally don’t score during the first wave of a pattern change but I do think if the shortwaves progress correctly we could time something. .
  10. Heisy
    I’d do many illegal things to be here .
  11. Heisy
    It doesn’t mean anything except the pattern during this period is conducive for snow .
  12. Heisy
    Not sure it was posted, this is just for fun with the range , but wow… that’s like a HECS setup cold dome over us and STJ gearing up. .
  13. Heisy
    It does seem early on the ridge out west looks more broad on the ensembles than it did previously , it does get there but there was a slight delay there over last few runs. Not a big deal yet. Still looking on track for the most part .
  14. Heisy
    Similar type progression as last nights euro could set the table mid month for an event. N/S energy advancing ahead for any left over energy in SW .
  15. Heisy
    From our Philly forum… 00z 06 GFS show a PV split btw right around mid month. If we have some blocking at that time could even enhance everything. Ensembles just stretch it, just seems everything is lining up at just the right time. .
  16. Heisy
    By the way I was right. The 00z control turned that wave into a Mid Atlantic hit. Lala land but at least it’s an example of a more winter storm conducive pattern starting Feb 14-15 .
  17. Heisy
    Play that forward and the energy in 4 corners could work out depending on if the energy around the lakes is able to compress the flow a bit .
  18. Heisy
    Eps Looks like what the cmc ensembles have been advertising for a few runs now. Pretty much all on board. How that actual pattern evolves to get here we’ll find out, may have a storm threat around 12-15 if there’s good sequence/timing of waves, but all the ensembles generally get to this point now .
  19. Heisy
    We’re about 7 days away from tracking mode coming back. .
  20. Heisy
    Just need one big event and it’s a good winter in my book .
  21. Heisy
    2 feet isn’t unheard of though so I wouldn’t consider that biblical. 3 feet plus imo. I’m an atheist though so what do I know haha .
  22. Heisy
    Chuck is hyped eh ha. I’ve had Feb 24 in my mind for some reason myself .
  23. Heisy
    Yea hopefully any energy undercuts that ridge and heads east and doesn’t want to close off or form a Rex block or get stuck under there .
  24. Heisy
    I’d assume both the control and ensemble will have upgrades to them? Not sure what HRES meant in the tweet. Hires? Idk .
  25. Heisy
    I’d assume both the control and ensemble will have upgrades to them? Not sure what HRES meant in the tweet. Hires? Idk .
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