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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    Each run after last nights 00z killer has trended worst…certainly seems like a trend to me .
  2. Heisy
    This. Exactly what I meant. Little things like vort strength and low location are going to change. The PNA problem is more of a large scale issue. That’s not a good trend. Not writing anything off, just pointing it out. .
  3. Heisy
    Oh yea for sure bud, just pointing that out for what we really would like to see reverse at 00z .
  4. Heisy
    18z eps in general is a much weaker vort pass, really getting screwed by the PNA. Still time to revert back, but this winter what can go wrong usually freaking does…. 18z eps vs 12 .
  5. Heisy
    Poor trend in PNA domain, won’t allow the storm to really dig and turn the corner. Speed everything up. Can see that represented well in the SLP placements and snowfall map of the members, bunch of hits near DE and SNJ because the ULL vort slides SE .
  6. Heisy
    Yea if the initial primary tracks far enough S the incoming energy behind the event which showed up today on the euro would act as a kicker. The low would bomb and then track ESE before going N. Kind of like the JMA. Right now for any hope we need the primary shortwave to track farther S .
  7. Heisy
    Yea that’s my hope right now. Don’t see a ton of hope down here in Philly unless primary shifts a lot farther S, but I’m really hoping for a NE bomb. At least it won’t be life threatening like a chase to buff was lol .
  8. Heisy
    Yes exactly that’s what I was saying in my earlier post. Really didn’t allow the low to tug west once it deepened. Noise at this range still, long way to go. .
  9. Heisy
    One negative from the run is the energy behind the system has strengthened and sped up, this is causing it to kind of push the main ULL east at the end, doesn’t really allow to tug westward. .
  10. Heisy
    That’s only through 144, wxfella has the maps beyond that. The low was still going through bombogenesis at the end of the free maps .
  11. Heisy
    I’d say generally and historically that’s where you want the gfs to be at this time frame. This was the first real run the progression changed towards euro so I’d give it time regardless .
  12. Heisy
    Hey bud you have the maps? I was just curious if it spit anything out towards Philly with the CCb development, aka how much for Philly? .
  13. Heisy
    Man I hope we see a full cave by gfs tomorrow morning this is awesome! .
  14. Heisy
    Wow! .
  15. Heisy
    EPS holy moly! .
  16. Heisy
    EPS def supporting OP through day 5 .
  17. Heisy
    It’s really remarkable the differences between euro and gfs as early as day 4, one model will cave soon. Euro and Ukie agreeing tellls me this has more credibility. Our best bet is that pac ULL retrogrades early on leaving a weak piece to head E then get trapped under the block. This is a fantasy run for sure .
  18. Heisy

    March 2023

    Heisy replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro

    Euro is gonna drop like 2-3 feet On nyc this run with a classic miller B. Splits off energy in pac so weak wave rises east and then strengthens and redevelops under the block .
  19. Heisy
    Hold me .
  20. Heisy
    Gonna end up destroying Parts of NE I bet .
  21. Heisy
    Primary too far N, likely will destroy NE once it redevelops .
  22. Heisy
    Don’t think I’ve seen this big of a difference between these two models at this range in my entire life. One is obviously wrong, likely gfs since euro has support from Ukie and icon .
  23. Heisy
    Lol euro is in ukie camp retrograding energy back into pac, difference between euro and gfs is astronomical .
  24. Heisy
    It’s trying to pull a Ukie and retrograding all that energy even farther back into pac which gives us weaker wave headed east…. Difference between gfs and euro still astronomical .
  25. Heisy
    Euro vs gfs at same hour like wth lol .
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