Heisy

Yeah I’m close to conceding, but the eps and pattern really don’t look horrible, just maybe not good enough. Just one well timed wave… .

It just sort of misses the total phase like the icon, but it still dump wet snow over SNE. Really curious what cmc and euro do, I’ve been intrigued with this 28th period for a miller b and it’s starting to look possible .

Early on you can see the changes on gfs to look more like icon/euro .

Posted in March thread, but icon has a very similar progression to that 18z euro run, it ends up bombing interior. .

00z icon did what it looked like the 18z euro was trying to do .

Anyone see end of 18z euro? Will, this looks like it may have actually done something here .

Patience young weenie. It’s coming. I’m locked in .

The 12z euro has the Heisynator March 7-8 .

Woops wrong thread lol .

12z gfs has the miller b I mentioned this AM .

This is the period I’m focused on for a last shot… Here is the euro Ai giving you an example of a pattern that can work .

Here’s what I’m talking about off the 6z euro Ai, and it was hinted at on other models last night, There’s the wave day 7, that wave has a SE flow ahead of it and not much chance for frozen outside elevations, but right on its heels is another N/S shortwave which OP euro and Ai develop a second low. If we can get some spacing between the two it could work for you guys. Both the 00z and 6z euro Ai redevelop that second wave and dump snow in SNE. The cmc was trying to turn the corner too. Not betting the house on it, but with the brief PNA spike maybe it’s possible. .

I think models generally ticked towards a potential miller B around first few days of March, gotta see how N stream evolves but I think there’s some decent potential around this time frame .

That’s my time frame lock it up .

I mean it’s basically now or never for this winter for that period. I’m out on anything before that (like the cmc BS run) Mitch any euro Ai fun? .

…and then at end of the run you have this general look which could work .

HM is in general agreement with me, pretty much echoed my thoughts. Here is 12z euro right before the time frame I’m talking about, you have cold flow over us, just gotta see if any wave can take advantage? .

I personally think the March 4-10 time frame has a chance to produce. As long as the -EPO has formed like the ensembles showing by then the tpv is farther SE. just depends if we get hurt by -PNA or not .

The end of the run is workable though. Not saying it will snow but pattern isn’t horrible if you know what I mean .

Anyone notice the Ai keeps showing a Jan 25 2000 type phase? Except it’s all rain lol .

Is the 28th event a miss or just rain? .

Hm, I’ll take a look at it when it comes on wxbell .

Any total update from around VA beach? Just tracking vicariously .

The wave around the 28th is likely a rain event here unless we see a more meridional flow ahead of it which would also take the TPV farther SE like we saw on last nights GFS. I’m not out on the first 2 weeks of March though. .

What’s going on those higher returns? Mix? .