Heisy

I like storm 2 because of the PNA domain. 00z euro massively improved that for storm 2. Im all in for storm 2 for nyc-Ne at least. Especially with how those other models ensembles look .

Verbatim it probably tucked too much for SNE but it def destroys someone in the region with that look .

I can’t wait to see the wxbell maps holy fook .

euro doing a full phase at 168… .

Oh boy, PNA heaven bear Idaho, this thing is phasing .

Well out to sea, as I’ve been stating it’s becoming obvious to me the GFs suite is full of crap as always. At 144 though there seems to be a load shortwave dropping south for storm 2 .

Euro still not rolling out, any word on delay? .

Think we’re boned for storm #1 in the city, NW may be able to cash in but city seems to have BL temp issues since we can’t get the ULL to tilt negatively in time to really get into the ccb precip. Storm 2 highly favors NE & NNE in fact I’m in love with this potential right now for them. Down here the pac speed just doesn’t give it time to dig far enough S in time. What happens after that is anyones guess but we’re losing climo. Can’t feel great about much of anything tonight. Hoping for a big event in NE to chase. Think the GFS solution for storm 1 up in NE is bogus, it’s clearly trending S with vort like rest of guidances .

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I’d preach caution with GFS and GEFS right now imo. Think it’s slowly caving towards farther S vort pass guidance. I’m all in for storm 2 right now for NE though .

I’m in love with storm 2 for you guys… ensembles look great for a Mauler type redeveloper. I’d be excited if I were you guys. Think the speed of the pac is just too much for us down in Philly. Storm 1 is just a mess right now for everyone. Think GFS is bogus and slowly caving to other guidance Ensembles look awesome for storm 2, I like the look at the end of ukie. Hopefully euro gives us some fun. I’m rooting hard for this one… need a chase bad… .

Goes from the image above…. To this…, keep backing the ridge up and we have an outside shot .

Storm 2 is a miller B with better PNA domain going into it. Still though it would be nice if the damn pac could just slow down a little bit to allow storm 2 to dig farther west. That storm phased with the STJ, what a beauty. We need to Back this ridge up so it’s closer to Idaho or so for it to be able to phase at our latitude. .

That’s what I was wondering. If the PAC can just slow down a little bit for storm two the main wave could have phased sooner. Just rooting for one of these to be a chase-worthy event, I don’t have an inch of snow this year in Philly .

The second event has better PNA domain setup like you mentioned. For you guys in storm 1 it’s hard for me to trust GFS with where the EPS is sitting right now. We’ll see where we stand by tomorrow .

18z gfs few ticks away from being a HECS for storm 2, phases in just a touch late .

Wow! .

12z JMA is still our best hope .

West coast trough and PNA position just killing us. The first system could maybe trend to a light event over Philly and dc but you’re going to have BL temp issues in the coastal plain since the low isn’t going to mature until it’s way out to sea At least it falls at night. Both events have the “PNA” ridge too far E to allow any event to mature at our latitude. I have a proposition, if that storm 2 destroys NE any where close to what OP has any one down for a group trip? .

West coast trough and PNA position just killing us. The first system could maybe trend to a light event over Philly and dc but you’re going to have BL temp issues in the coastal plain since the low isn’t going to mature until it’s way out to sea of the wave Is as weak as euro shows it At least it falls at night. Both events have the “PNA” ridge too far E to allow any event to mature at our latitude. I have a proposition, if that storm 2 destroys NE any where close to what’s OP has any one down for a group trip? .

On the euro at least this is looking more and more like a W -> E vort pass so it’s all about the latitude of the main energy as it heads E. .

Big improvement coming on 6z eps, left over pac love phases in with pac energy which allows PNA ridge to pump a little better in front…. That helps main shortwave dig better .

I still got my bags packed, waiting on the 00z run to confirm .

Canadian looked better early on but the wave on its heels ended that… .

Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea. I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go… It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response.