Heisy

Yea eps and control followed suite. Not as good of a run, doesn’t drop the core of the N/S ULL as far SE as 12z mean snow ticked N .

18z euro vs 12z… see what eps/control do in a little bit. Main vort seems a little farther S, southern energy/low little flatter .

By the way I liked the look of the 18z icon at the end of its range. The southern vort trended a little more progressive & main ULL had a little sharper dive look .

Yea for sure I would def take that as a positive this run. .

Yea the main vort strengthens in time to produce, but it’s def different evolution vs euro which phases in that STJ vort. .

It’ll get there in it’s own special way lol. .

18z gfs still letting the STJ vort escape east, still not in its useful range though… wouldn’t worry about it yet .

I think NYC region has a shot with this one… gotta get that CCB backed up into the region once the capture happens. We’ll see how the interaction between that southern vort plays out over next few days. Euro isn’t alone, icon is pretty similar and think looked better at 18z as well fwiw .

It’s close, but 58 dug a lot farther S vs what the euro is snowing. Big issue with this one is the HP. It’s really far west and more west than N. You can still see isobars from the primary near Lake Erie here. Torching the BL. We’d need the capture to happen a lot farther S to get into the ccb for dynamics. That highly favors N Pa through Interior SNE right now. NYC has an outside shot too. If you get a flatter wave from the STJ vort maybe NW can get some snow. Our only path to victory I see for the cities is if this capture happens a lot farther S than any model shows right now. .

There’s no Hp anywhere close and an ULL in the lakes, it’s not really a snow setup for anyone outside the far Nw and high terrain. GFS shows this crap again with energy diving in the southwest and ridge ridge in the middle of the country, think winter might be over if GFS is right. .

Been pretty obvious to me that the coastal plain has no shot with wave 2, my eyes are already set towards 18th-20th to see if anything can undercut the ridge and take advantage of some confluence. Battling climo. Then it’s spring and we can forget about this god awful winter .

This. That’s kind of what the crazy 00z euro run did the other night down here in E PA with the southern vort max being the strong one. Wish we could get that lakes ULL to dive a lot farther SE. We have about 2 maybe 3 days left to see large scale changes before models lock in on a general progression. .

Lol….. all I have tonight. See how 17-21st shakes out. .

Maybe our last hope? .

Whatever happens with storm #2 I do hope it turns into a monster to help any third wave in the day 10 range. .

GFS missed the phase with the southern vort pretty early and the N/S energy is farther W than euro. Here are the same two pieces of energy and there differences between both of the models at day 5. How we combine these two to get them to phase, tuck, and occlude at our latitude I don’t know. Randy will like my artistic improvements Also note the differences with the small Canadian vort that is N of the main northern stream disturbance on the euro vs what the GFS shows .

Jan 25 2000 was a phased miller A/B type event where N/S dropped in and phased with southern energy. That one worked because of how far south the primary was and how deep the N/S was able to dive. Euro and other models show a more Northern stream dominant event, the full capture happens at a more northern latitude. Look where the capture is happening during 2000 vs what last night’s 00z and todays 12z euro are showing. We’d have to get a huge shift to be in play for storm 2. .

Now this we can agree on lol… Someone from N PA to Maine is probably going to get smoked from this one imo. Think we’ll see other models jump on soon. This is a 2 streamer phase, big question for me right now is position and speed of that STJ vort. .

I know I’ve come off as a negative Nancy to you lately, it’s not on purpose. I don’t think it’s a great look for mid Atlantic dc—> Philly snow outside far NW and mountains. With a NS ULL diving S like that We’d need the low to bomb and occlude at our latitude, eps does that way farther N. There are a few eps members that maybe show that, but in general this event clearly favors NE/interior. Still time to maybe change that whole dynamic, but I wouldn’t bet on it… Now the day 10 setup on the euro OP? That’s how we get snow here…. .

How did the ukie look out beyond 144 hours? It looked like it had a farther SE secondary since the STJ wave wasn’t as amped as the 12z euro js… does stormvista have it out beyond day 6? Thanks bud .

Only 10 days away .

I thought last nights 00z euro stream interaction reminded me of a farther N version of January 25, 2000. That one had a stronger southern stream and developed farther S. 2000. Similarly it tucked inland as it phased N…. .

If it’s more N/S dominant (which this run is since it’s diving farther S) I’d worry about stronger primary and more of a tug inland as it develops Northward. See what 12z euro run brings, but i do think if we saw that run go out beyond 144 there would have been a lot of huggers, that being said it would have probably crushed the interior. Feeling good about this being the real deal and the GFS will likely adjust by end of the day. As always, with storm #1 the GFS is slowly caving to euro/eps guidance. I would probably gambled a million dollars that the 6z gfs was going to come in less amped vs it’s 00z run and it did…. Rooting for the coastal plain but just want a big one to chase… .

Ji you coming with me? .

I live for these runs. I have bad enough ADHD as it is, when a monster run like this happens I can barely put a sentence together lmao .