Heisy

Not sure how many people know this, but the NAM was supposed to be retired by now. There’s a model that’s already running that’s supposed to be it’s replacement. Forget what it’s called but I’ll try to find its forecast through our Philly met. for this storm and post it. I’m not going to be able to chase this one, so that’s a full year without seeing 1 inch of snow for me. Going to be a long summer. Good luck .

This is most likely the last reasonable chance at anything, unfortunately today went the wrong way. Long way to go though .

This is why it went farther Nw, decreased confluence because NS didn’t phase with the tpv in SE Canada. Same crap euro did (though not nearly as bad, but still negative change) Run to run change…. .

Confluence pattern got worst just like the OP euro. 2023 things. I couldn’t chase either of the Buffalo events this year and it looks like I won’t be able to get up to W MA or Catskills for tomorrow. This has been the worst winter of my life. I think 2001-02 actually had accumulating snow here. Hopefully 23-24 has an Early December event like 02-03 had heh. .

We getting a solid STJ vort look, not overly strong, problem was the N/S this run .

Not getting right confluence pattern from N/S this run…. .

Wow that’s actually a damn good setup, only 240+ hours away! .

There is a little signal on 18z GEFS for 22-24th, couple decent hits around the region .

Yea that pac wave speeding up would help, keep things tighter. I guess I meant there’s more confluent flow near us for the initial wave. We’ll see what happens .

This was the wave we needed models to focus on…. not this one… lost our 50/50 I guess everything could evolve differently, but not looking good right now. I’m still torn on if I’m headed up somewhere in NE tomorrow night. Might be last shot to see snow .

Problem with that day 10+ euro pac wave (and it’s a signal on other models too) is we lose the cold source by time it comes east….we really needed that wave that the cmc blew up last night that is all suppressed on the models today to be the key player imo. That has a perfect confluence setup ahead of it, but it just has no damn spacing because of the next shortwave and -PNA energy pushing it east. Just another example of bad luck… Mean for that 10+ day event shows our 50/50 being too far out of play by then. .

Euro, like other models just different each run. Models really struggling finding a consistent relationship between the two streams. Tough forecast. Here is 6z vs 12z, each run changes which stream is more dominant .

Meh, just terrible spacing with that pac energy just racing east, no room for any amplification at all. If that pac energy becomes the “wave” that forms a storm probably assume are cold air source in NE is gone by then .

Gfs digging more like last nights cmc…curious how this plays out. Not worth getting too invested this far out randy .

This run has a 2013 death band look for that area lol .

Spacing issue right now, the incoming pac energy and the buzz saw in the NE causes the shortwave in between to get shredded. We’ll see how it evolves as we get closer. CMC worked out because it elongated the day 7-8 wave, gfs has more of a buzzsaw in the NE and that combined with the incoming pac energy/STJ just shreds it. Problem all year, the ingredients are there, but unlucky timing and things that can go wrong are just going wrong… .

Icon has dual low that combines too far E…. Weird run .

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00z gfs has similar evolution but just little too sloppy this run…. Time period is def in play though for now… .

Season saver setup on the cmc…. Same type of setup evolution as 18z gfs had .

Check this out… the wave we spoke of earlier… 00z cmc .

@CAPE @psuhoffman This is OP GFS and GEFS for same time period in the LR… losing climo though…. .

GEFS does look a little better at H5, we want to see this trough trend as positively tilted as possible .

Yea, most likely considering other models look that way at the moment .

It’s alone in its evolution, and seems pretty suspect. Not impossible, but yea… what I’ve noticed this year is that the Op GFS sticks to a general LR pattern evolution for 2-4 runs before new data is infused. 12z run had a similar anafrontal system, 18z doubled down. We’ll probably see a much different evolution by 00z or 6z. If we want a miracle snow event out of that system though we need a GFS evolution where NS races out ahead of the southern energy. .