This storm comes down to the confluence pattern, at the moment it looks more likely we won’t get a far S enough N/S push. 6z gfs improved that area and also had a perfect track. Hopes are low but not dead. There’s still some good eps members .
18z Op GFs while warm is very close imo. Falls at night too, long way to go to get a little better cold. Track is almost perfect. Still interested, especially N&W .
My friend ended up at that Motel 8 in Gardner you mentioned… only place he could find lots of places booked up or dont allow pets. Thanks for the recommendation .
Euro was def a close call. If the main wave was stronger early on it probably would have been a big NW hit at least. Can see similar evolution on control, but with a stronger short wave. Setup still there. We’ll see what happens .
One thing to keep an eye on during 12z runs today is to see if we can get that blocking south of Greenland to improve. 6z GFS looked decent there I think that would help keep lower heights under it to where we need it. 6z eps/control trended that way. Hopefully it can force any shortwaves south of it to strengthen confluence ahead of any wave. .
This event is one of the worst modeled events I’ve ever seen at this range. All the models picked up on the storm threat of course, but the run to run changes are crazy… this is the 6z euro vs 00z just 2 days out! What are your thoughts on the day 8-10 threat? .
Where you located? I’m unable to chase this one, hate chasing elevation dependent events anyway, but still jealous AF! For those depressed this morning farther SE there is a signal around day 8-10! Lol .
More of a euro look but slightly better than previous runs. Hopefully we get N/S to respond to that -epo ridge that shows up. Whatever we can do to keep confluence. Speed up the pac wave. Whatever it takes .
Euro taking a step towards the gfs etc. check out this ridge in epo land, that could help force cold air SE for any pac wave. Euro a little more sloppy with the shortwave, but setup there .
Yea I just added that last sentence to not seem as pessimistic as I actually am. In all reality I’m over the cliff. I’m from Bensalem few miles NE of Philly…. Can see the bad trend with confluence on the ensemble as well. .