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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    This one is always going to be sloppy, but if enough phasing happens and enough energy escapes from the southern ULL there’s a ton of moisture overrrunning possible .
  2. Heisy
    I mean it looks much better than 00z and 00z got us decently so… .
  3. Heisy
    More phasing occurring, see how much is able to round the corner before the kicker comes .
  4. Heisy
    This should be a better run, 12z GFS .
  5. Heisy
    What’s also cool is that storm phasing and coming east may help the pattern beyond that as well ha, good times for you mid Atlantic folks ahead hopefully .
  6. Heisy
    It’s because of the spacing of the pattern, but it certainly has potential to be a nice event for mid Atlantic and southeast. It’s a tentative situation it all matters how far E that cutoff pushes. 00z gfs we’d all sign on the dotted line I think, snow on snow .
  7. Heisy
    This doesn’t really have big dog potential because there’s not a lot of room with the shortwave behind it crashing over the ridge, could be a classic 2-5” type event if enough energy phases .
  8. Heisy
    GFS Phasing this run so it should bring up some moisture .
  9. Heisy
    End of 18z euro, phasing the southern vort, would have loved to see that beyond 144 .
  10. Heisy
    Makes sense I could roll with that .
  11. Heisy
    Models reverted back to what I expected. I still am holding out hope for a rogue fronto band that travels farther N than expected and surprises some folks, but right now 1-3” is my call for Philly. .
  12. Heisy
    Yea classic 50/50, only issue is the kicker coming behind speeding it up, get more phasing early on and sky is the limit here .
  13. Heisy
    18z euro Ai is very similar to 18z GFS, enough of the southern stream escapes east and allows for enough phasing, MECS for mid Atlantic. End of the OP euro looked similar as well. Woof woof? .
  14. Heisy
    .
  15. Heisy
    I’d also bet we see a fronto band go much farther N than modeled. So places in N and North Central PA prob get a mesonband that piles on up there .
  16. Heisy
    From the Mets on phillywx kuchera less reliable this event vs Cobb. Ratios right now been 8-10:1 using Cobb. I think a solid 4-6” call is proper at this stage, we’ll probably see a WSW for the area since there will be a chance for 6+ .
  17. Heisy
    Also will add, models currently want to take the southern wave and cut it off under the ridge, but if that can stay far enough E and phase with the incoming Northern Stream shortwave it will increase the odds of getting this thing up the coast. .
  18. Heisy
    12z euro Ai almost turns the corner with the Jan 10-11 potential event, as is it crushes the southern mid Atlantic. This one has HECS potential if everything happened perfectly for us. As is it is currently favoring the SE, but we’ll see .
  19. Heisy
    This feels like a VA event. There’s some decent agreement forming. We’ll see some tics from here on out but i highly doubt we’re in the max stripe. That’s going to be somewhere in VA. What sucks is it’s looking dry beyond this. Wave on the 10th looks too progressive at this stage .
  20. Heisy
    Discord, I don’t use discord for anything except phillywx you should try it you’ll get used to it fast man, we’re all over there .
  21. Heisy
    Hey Mitch, miss you over in the Philly forums. I like where we’re at this stage of the game. Long way to go, need the 50/50 to relax .
  22. Heisy
    The 50/50 and confluence was weaker/N. 6z euro would have been a bump N for sure, but it still would have been a very good hit. It was probably perfect, but it won’t matter in about 3 hours anyway. Pay attention to the confluence in my GIF .
  23. Heisy
    I need a dog, but my fear is 6th gets sheared and it screws up the spacing for the follow up wave. Sometimes we don’t truly cash until a block breaks down anyway. We’ll see. 00z gfs starting up shortly .
  24. Heisy
    This isn’t bad for the end of the run. What could go wrong is a piece of the TPV drops down and phases with the shortwave bringing it N (like the 6z euro Ai did). We’ll see, still think a front ender makes sense for the 6th. Would be nice GFS time .
  25. Heisy
    I think it looks fine verbatim anyway, close enough .
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