Heisy

Take a look at difference of the shortwaves at top of ridge from current 12z euro and 00z euro. Newer runs weakened it. I really think this is what is partly hurting us. That shortwave isn’t as strong so isn’t diving as far S. .

Excited for you DC weenies, enjoy it. Let us up N get next Saturday though, appreciate it .

I agree, I was just relating to MJO. 6z euro going to the way it did mattered, but we can still quickly reverse it at 12z .

Yep, next few suites are bigger than normal. Very tentative with that energy diving over the ridge. Yes MJO 6-18z euro runs can be wacky. I really want to see both the GFS and euro have it again at 12z and icon/cmc starting to show some phasing. Euro Ai being close again would be good as well. We’ll see .

Yeah the storm hits us day 7, but this is a phasing event where the phase happens day 4-5. We need the models to hop on fast imo. Getting close to that 84-96 hour mark. Next few model suites are huge if this is going to happen. This isn’t like Mondays event where you’re just hoping for a N or S trend based on strength of the 50/50 and main wave, this is either the event will happen or it won’t based on if it phases properly. You could get a partial phase but that likely means something like last nights GFS, Just my opinion from experience. If by 00z tonight models aren’t on board id be worried. .

Less of a phase on 6z eps, we’ll see what 12z data says, kind of disappointing after that 00z euro and 6z gfs run. Plenty of time, but like I said that phase happens around day 4-5 so not an eternity .

True, but the phase that we need for this to become a large event happens at around 96-102 hours so really not that far out. .

We really need that N stream energy to dive over that ridge quickly and start the phasing. You can see the 6z euro is just a touch slower with it and that caused it to miss the phase. .

Very tentative situation with that phase. Could go either way, obviously just a little good or bad timing goes one way or other. I’ll stick with EPS for now so hopefully we see 6z EPS hold steady .

…and then I wake up and the 6z euro misses the phase. Did not expect that either sheesh .

6z GEFS is going full out this run I think, LFG boys! .

Wow I did not expect to wake up to see that euro/eps run lol; and the 6z GFS! .

It’s mostly N stream so I bet mid Atlantic gets a decent snowstorm this run from overrunning ahead of the low .

It basically looks like the 18z euro Ai, that model has been absolutely nailing things lately .

Yeah it might miss the phase this run, maybe a partial one, ugh .

Early on I don’t think the GFS looks as lined up with the shortwaves as the two prior runs, might still phase we’ll see, I bet it’s east or less wound up vs the last two runs that’s all .

I’m absolutely fine where the 00z icon is at this stage, that was close enough. Hopefully other models come close by 18z tomorrow .

While the storm is 180 hours out the phase we need happens around day 5, so by 18z models Tomorrow or so I hope we start seeing more models hop on board. For me 96 hour is usually when we start seeing some semblance of agreement on the overall h5 scheme. Obviously doesn’t always work out like that though, but you get what I’m saying

Trough is a touch more positively tilted than 12z, but it does look like it’s phasing. Not as much as 18z GFs though .

Prob end more tucked than 12z .

Storm hits down here on Saturday, could be interesting if the Eagles playoff game is scheduled for then, for those who like football in the snow .

This is my true home in another life. Definitely cool that the there’s a bunch of eps members that look like the GFS .

Comes out later today, 6z was mid Atlantic hit with partial phase. EPS looks better so far more phasing occurring. .

It has at least been trending better more towards the phase. Would like the euro to have an event this run, maybe not as amped as gfs but at least something .

Yea it’s phasing I didn’t understand some of the negative comments lol, it was way better than 00 and 6z which both were decent runs .