Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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If you go back and read my posts I was never excited about the previous few weeks. I understand the climo, but I’d personally argue that this is possibly one of the best means we’ve had all season. Only issue is with climo we need to be close to perfect. .
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This is the best looking Miller A look we’ve had all year on the snow mean. 18z eps/control improved at 144 as well with a weaker storm coming out and better confluence .
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Baby steps .
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18z GEFS slightly Improved around day 6 with confluence pattern. All that matters is around day 5-6. We need euro to be on board around then. Till then as long as the other models in the same ball park im fine. UKIE at 168 today was primed for a big event. .
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This is one of the waves that we need to keep an eye on. Euro phases this piece in, this helps build ridging ahead. GFS kind of pushes it farther SE. CMC is kind of in between. hopefully this piece speeds up on future guidance. Rather it get out ahead or roll across N of lakes in future runs I’m really all in on this pattern, just shame it’s happening when it is .
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Why though?! I live down in Philly and haven’t seen more than a car topper. We have all late spring, summer, and fall until it can snow again. Pattern actually looks decent, go all in! .
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Oh agreed, just stating the pattern actually looks amazing. .
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There’s actually two periods to watch in the LR, and I’ll stress that it likely favors interior with all of them. We’re gonna need a little luck in coastal plain, but not impossible. This first event we’re tracking now and then possibly a front ender type if that event forms into 50/50. The pattern is gonna kill a lot of people because It’s happening when it is. Check out this pattern at end of GFS lol, pain. .
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Winter is far from over especially for interior. Once this storm is over and people start looking at the extended they’ll be surprised…21-23rd and 25-27th showing up. This could be an epic month for people who are getting hit hard today .
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Not terrible for this range after OP run. .
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Agreed, doesn’t get confluence out ahead as well as GFS either, there’s a late diving N/S shortwave that is key in this, need that to trend faster. setup still there well see .
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Get the N/S lobe out ahead of the main shortwave would have helped, as is a big improvement .
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Canadian improved?? .
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Yea, damn close and honestly where we want it at this range anyway. I’d like to see cmc or euro take a step towards this today .
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The improved N/S will help keep HP where we need it this run at least .
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Main wave a little slower hurts, but I’ll take the upgrades with the HP/confluence over shortwave which will change. If this run had a more organized shortwave like 6z would have been a monster I think. Might be a little sloppy here .
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Much better confluence look in SE Canada let’s hope the main shortwave gets its act together in time .
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It is crazy I don’t remember seeing a similar STJ like pattern on the models for a long time now. Sign of next winter? One can hope… .
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Seeing a better cold push on GFS, see if it leads to a similar 6z outcome .
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Not sure if anyone paying attention, but last nights euro….. .
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6z eps @ 144…. Maybe a little better left over confluence here. Gotta get this thing to take a wide SE track as possibly obviously. .
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Just the small increase of leftover confluence and better track made all the difference on the 6z GFS. I could see elevations of the southeast do better than up here in certain situations because they could take advantage of HP if it ends up moving E .
