Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Yeah it’s able to happen because the main shortwave that heads over the ridge is dumped into Southwest while N/S races ahead. We’ve seen that happen a lot this year, the current event is an example. Wouldn’t shock me. .
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Leads to this, major HP up top, but that wave is super strong .
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@mitchnick 12z euro Ai, leaves southern energy behind unlike OP, this could lead to N/S prepping a better setup for whatever comes E .
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12z gfs and 6z euro Ai look pretty similar through 200 hours, only difference after that is euroai kind of runs the N/S out ahead while GFS phases it in. Plenty of time for that to change. .
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It looks like the 6z euro Ai was a snowstorm for the 20-21st because it shows the S stream lagging behind the N/S and it creates a sort of anafront. 12z GFS is closer to having that happen, still a few steps away, but if the N/S had pushed a little faster ahead it could have been a colder storm .
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The wave the gfs has isn’t the same progression as the euro Ai….cmc is more in agreement, and boy does it look like it’s gearing up at the end of the run. .
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Right, once it gets to around day 5-6 it starts locking up pretty well. Sunday will bring the 20th day 7 so hopefully by then maybe we’re tracking something. .
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Thanks for this info, been tracking it all winter and it’s been really freaking good, the last event and the current one it basically settled in on placement by day 4-5 and didn’t wiggle much from there. What’s interesting is the graphics look a little smoothed out like it is an ensemble mean. Does anyone with SV have the snow map from the 6z run for this event? Just curious what it showed .
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6z euro Ai, keeps up the signal for around the 20th. As is it verbatim it’s a front end thump to mix or rain, with a huge hit for N&W, but it wouldn’t change much to make this a big dog for everyone. Better push from N/S ahead of the main low. Could also trend worse or all be make believe at this range, but the euro Ai has been pretty damn good at picking up storm threats .
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Nice hit on the euro Ai for around the 20th @mitchnick .
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This could obv change, but I see a cutter around the 18th that ushers in another shot of cold air and confluence, and depending on how the shortwaves break apart over the epo ridge determines what comes around the 20th. .
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Did you mean the 6z or the 12z cause the 12z isn’t out on wxbell yet .
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I’d roll with this look .
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It was really only the GFS that was showing the fantasy event. When the GFS is alone on a mountain like that you usually have to ignore it. cmc had a moderate event for 2-3 runs. The euro and euro Ai have been pretty solid on this event for a while. I think the euro had 1-2 runs where it blew it up, but other than that it’s been pretty good. They gave us a signal of a wave at this time frame going back 10+ days, that’s pretty good to me. Meanwhile, 12z euro has my Jan 20 snow event. .
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6z euro Ai setup going into the 20th time frame It’s a decent setup for an overrunning event, see how it plays out once we get closer. This is the next time frame to watch for anything major as others have mentioned .
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Yeah the next time frame to watch for anything potentially major outside of clipper types imo is 18-23rd. .
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Most winters my blinds are brown for a reason. Jan 18-23 probably the next time frame with potential outside some clipper type snow Sometimes in really good winters though things pop up out of no where in medium/late range, we’ll see .
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Yeah it’s def not shit the blinds, but we may be in a little waiting period. .
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Just a tidbit since I’m bored. Euro Ai is a really good model. Been watching it during all the events so far this winter and it’s really accurate. It seems like the graphics are like smoothed out like the old control, but I’m not exactly sure what goes into it. It’s been pretty steady with Saturday’s event outside minor ticks here and there. It seems all the models trending towards its overall H5 look. I think SE of the cities could be in store for 1-4” event with maybe far SE sections 2-5”. .
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Terrific .
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It’s the NAM, but it looks like it’s phasing in the northern shortwave .
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Check this out, 18z Ukie looks like GFS to a degree, that’s a really good sign . I posted the wrong maps woops
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84 hours that’s a pretty big differences for this range .
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Yep, was hoping lol, 00z going to be really interesting, one side had to cave soon .
