Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Man Mitch cmc looks secsy .
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GFS is trying to get things going late here….i realize this is far out, nothing else to really look at .
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Now 12z cmc, close to a woof woof signal here fellas. CAN definitely tell this might lead to some good things here. Northern stream is clearing and the left over energy looks pretty strong .
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Better separation between initial front and energy behind, see if it can produce anything .
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Yea there’s ways to win and fail, we don’t want the eventual trough to come East as one event. The runs that give us snow seem to hold back energy while allowing the cold front to clear first. .
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Yeah, front clears around the 20th, left over energy is redeveloped in the SE with cold air in place, still near day 10 though just for entertainment purposes .
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I think the 6z Euro Ai about to go off for the 21-22nd .
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It’s basically a more aggressive and better spaced version of todays 12z gem .
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You beat me lol, yea it depends the speed of those shortwaves, we need to get a little lucky with the spacing as always .
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18z euro Ai through 204 hours, very similar to 12z, could get interesting if N/S races ahead @mitchnick, I hope when eagles game wraps up Sunday we’re tracking something .
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Yeah it’s able to happen because the main shortwave that heads over the ridge is dumped into Southwest while N/S races ahead. We’ve seen that happen a lot this year, the current event is an example. Wouldn’t shock me. .
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Leads to this, major HP up top, but that wave is super strong .
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@mitchnick 12z euro Ai, leaves southern energy behind unlike OP, this could lead to N/S prepping a better setup for whatever comes E .
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12z gfs and 6z euro Ai look pretty similar through 200 hours, only difference after that is euroai kind of runs the N/S out ahead while GFS phases it in. Plenty of time for that to change. .
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It looks like the 6z euro Ai was a snowstorm for the 20-21st because it shows the S stream lagging behind the N/S and it creates a sort of anafront. 12z GFS is closer to having that happen, still a few steps away, but if the N/S had pushed a little faster ahead it could have been a colder storm .
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The wave the gfs has isn’t the same progression as the euro Ai….cmc is more in agreement, and boy does it look like it’s gearing up at the end of the run. .
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Right, once it gets to around day 5-6 it starts locking up pretty well. Sunday will bring the 20th day 7 so hopefully by then maybe we’re tracking something. .
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Thanks for this info, been tracking it all winter and it’s been really freaking good, the last event and the current one it basically settled in on placement by day 4-5 and didn’t wiggle much from there. What’s interesting is the graphics look a little smoothed out like it is an ensemble mean. Does anyone with SV have the snow map from the 6z run for this event? Just curious what it showed .
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6z euro Ai, keeps up the signal for around the 20th. As is it verbatim it’s a front end thump to mix or rain, with a huge hit for N&W, but it wouldn’t change much to make this a big dog for everyone. Better push from N/S ahead of the main low. Could also trend worse or all be make believe at this range, but the euro Ai has been pretty damn good at picking up storm threats .
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Nice hit on the euro Ai for around the 20th @mitchnick .
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This could obv change, but I see a cutter around the 18th that ushers in another shot of cold air and confluence, and depending on how the shortwaves break apart over the epo ridge determines what comes around the 20th. .
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Did you mean the 6z or the 12z cause the 12z isn’t out on wxbell yet .
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I’d roll with this look .
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It was really only the GFS that was showing the fantasy event. When the GFS is alone on a mountain like that you usually have to ignore it. cmc had a moderate event for 2-3 runs. The euro and euro Ai have been pretty solid on this event for a while. I think the euro had 1-2 runs where it blew it up, but other than that it’s been pretty good. They gave us a signal of a wave at this time frame going back 10+ days, that’s pretty good to me. Meanwhile, 12z euro has my Jan 20 snow event. .
