Heisy

Cmc and icon have much weaker waves which is a saving grace, but idk how much we can rely on that. We’ll see .

12z gfs will be amped, 50/50 backing off a bit and main wave is even stronger, congrats buffalo this run .

Little bit, years in this hobby make you jaded a bit. I’m not writing it off, we’re way too far out. Regardless you know me, I’ll be the first one to jump in a car and chase anything over a foot of snow. So just rooting on a big event regardless .

Ensembles are generally always smoother than OP. Don’t really remember a time when they weren’t with STJ events I’d rather this max stripe be over DT at this range right now. Lol. Snow field reminds me over a warmer dec 2020, could be congrats BGM at the end. If this fails though it’s okay. Pattern def looks solid rest of month. We probably wanted a near miss before we get cranking anyway .

Doesn’t phase the northern stream with the event on the 4th so the 50/50 isn’t as strong .

Euro doesn’t have the same phase between the northern stream and the wave on 4th which lead to a much stronger 50/50 on the GFS etc. .

Cmc ensembles are jacked, better for N&W. Probably a lot of tucked solutions I’m sure Psu will find a way to jackpot. Long way to go but at least we’re def tracking something this week .

Hard to know for sure if that’s coming up the coast. At 144 on the map MJO posted it had some decent confluence out ahead. Still, more support for the 7th so we take .

Thanks again, does it have height lines at those hours or just the maps you posted .

Can you post H5? .

Icon just having an event on the EC at this range is a positive sign. We take .

The parade of pac waves actually helps us as it speeds up any wave and doesn’t allow them to get too amped. Just need support from a 50/50 and we should be good .

If we get lucky the 7-8th event phases in with the TPV, creates another 50/50 and we stay on the right side of the gradient for a front ended Jan 9-11. It’s certainly possible if the block is real like in the EPs etc .

A lot closer this run vs previous, but not there yet .

12z euro looks more like cmc with the phasing N/S shortwave than previous runs. Could be close here if we get the phase/turn corner .

Brighten the mood, 12z icon goes ape lol .

Even look at last nights 00z euro control for another example. It has this block and not an inch of snow anywhere near us. It goes from this…. To this… Yet no snow anywhere because of same reasons you mentioned. Not that I care what the model shows verbatim, just another example .

Wave gets obliterated by the 50/50 above and that strong pac wave crashing on shore behind it speeding it up. There will be a HP wedged to the NE of us as this thing comes N for a short time it seems. I think there could be a thin line of accumulating to the north of this thing. In future runs I’d root on for the main shortwave to have more latitude as it heads east because it’s going to get shredded no matter what. What is discouraging is the one model today that brought the low far enough N was the CMC and it ended up being too warm except for far NW burbs. Cmc didn’t look as good as the GFS in SE canada though so who knows. Pretty strong thread the needle situation, but I guess it’s something to track at least. PS Best look of the day for this storm was probably the 12z JMA at 192 lol. .

That’s pretty much the consensus it seems. We have two semi long shots, both sort of thread the needle on the dates you mentioned. Then after that 7-8th wave there’s a warm spell for 1-3 days between 8-10th. Then we latch our hope on the AO and see how far S and E that western Canada cold dump can go. Sound about right? .

Hope this is wrong, it just never wants to come east lol. .

I know this isn’t horrible but it’s frustrating we can’t get the cold anomalies farther SE. they just want to hang in central conus .looks like a def warm up between 8-11th before this hopefully pushes east, well see .

Pretty good agreement between 12z OP and 6z ensemble with how pattern progresses. Probably get a couple day warm up ahead of the cold push. Then we hope that trough can push east and a block forms. .

See if this comes up the coast or gets crushed .

12z cmc and gfs have better TPV positioning and cold press out ahead of the potential Jan 6-8 wave. Like i mentioned both with more phasing with the N stream. Could be good here we’ll see .

I think the more N stream energy we have interject into the 3-5th wave will help us with the 6-8th wave. Just something to keep an eye on. .