Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Nice. Makes sense, the wetter this storm the more NW pull you’ll probably see. .
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Need to keep the ridge from rolling over like the euro Ai does. If so it’s got a chance to be a big one. .
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What’s your experience tell you here in regards to the rgem/cmc doing this? . -
Verbatim it’s good, but you can see at H5 it made a big step towards more amped solutions. If the rgem didnt exist I’d feel fine about this run, but knowing what it did makes me feel iffy about that icon run. Ugh .
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Icon ends up being a good hit but you can see it was a step towards the amped solutions. We need clarity something isn’t sitting right with me. .
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The old sref hints at this too. I’m telling you there is something fishy going on. Maybe I need a dog lol. I’m worried about a full on collapse at 12z, icon coming in with stronger shortwave early on too .
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Yes, I’ve seen it happen where one consistent model gets the win. The gefs had about 30% members that looked like the rgem. The fv3 looking like the rgem is another worry. I bet we see the GFS come NW big time this run, just a hunch based ln experience. I really hope I’m wrong .
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The rgem will not give in. It has me extremely worried. We could see a really bad 12z suite if models cave .
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That ULL in Canada keeps ticking W which is allowing the wave to turn the corner faster .
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This is it’s time to shine. It’s been good before this, but I feel like more people paying attention this go around. It better not let me down. .
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Im just NE of Philly, I’m more worried about a rgem solution vs SE. That GEFS run was concerning as well too, there were a lot of NW solutions .
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This is it’s shot to become famous. .
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Getting a touch worried about this thing being too far Nw for the city lol. Rgem and icon to an extent are nerve racking .
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Yeah it’s pretty insane how each model varies after Sunday .
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Kuchera has more to do with lift vs temps I believe, combination .
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Plausible scenario, 6z gfs almost did that before it was able to escape. I’ll worry about it later, hoping we can cash in 3-6 on Sunday .
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6z euro Ai buries the energy out west. Lot of shortwaves have been doing that this year so could be correct. .
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Euro Ai is my go to model under 5 days and idc what anyone says. This thing is a beast. I know this event hasn’t happened yet, but all winter this thing locks in at this range. It’ll have minor ticks each run, but I haven’t seen it pull a full on big swing like the GFS or euro just did all winter. .
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If the rgem was any sign for the cmc, it’ll probably be a really good hit .
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Couldn’t sleep… End of the icon was going places… .
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The change was the wave dropping down from the northern steam, it got stuck out west. Seems a lot of waves keep doing that lately lol… Going to bed myself too, i want 500 posts .
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So, if you go back to older runs the second potential event we were tracking is at 180 hrs+. That 18z euro changed things up dramatically with strengthening that wave. I mean maybe that happens. I was more inclined to hope for more energy to be dumped out west and have the N stream come down and phase with it. I’m not in love with the spacing with that shortwave at 144 hours, but who knows?! Like Psu said this pattern may be tough for models to gauge. .
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It’s odd it’s actually not the same time frame we’ve been tracking for round 2 .
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Difference between GFS, CMC, and Euro AI at 90 hours To give you an idea of what differences each model has. 18z rgem was in the euro Ai camp fwiw .
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The 18z rgem looks like the Euro AI at 84 hours. Models having issues parsing the shortwave on its speed and strength as it rounds the base. Money is on the euro Ai .
