Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Meh, I’m always selling GFS temp profile. All I’m getting from this run is that it’s completely folded the stronger wave idea. Bump the snow map a good bit NW imo. Not to be deb. Just experience and blending other guidance .
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If that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. .
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I knew it in my core. Was quite surprised during the New Year’s Eve runs we got those south runs. This one is absolutely toast for I-95. These types never trend favorably for us. Not even a storm worth chasing at this stage either. Oh well, onto then next one .
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It may never snow again .
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What also kind of blows is we’ve trended now towards a much weaker wave. So even those who are in the all snow region aren’t looking at substantial substantial amounts. Yea 5-10” is nice, but models were throwing out 12” yesterday .
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I had that feeling today, knew it. Been around too long .
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Omg is a +PNA trying to form???? Prob get some front Enders like others said. KU risk towards end of pattern change as usual. Pretty awesome look come mid month off the GEPS .
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While this isn’t bad you can see more pronounced SE ridge vs older runs. See what GEFS and eps have to say .
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Yea that pattern looks familiar eh? Idk why we can never get a PNA ridge. .
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Pretty similar looks between GFS and CMC .
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OV primary stronger on GFS, sigh .
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Heisy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I posted days ago the shortwave reminded me over this event. We had a massive 50/50 for that one though. I have a bad feeling about 12z runs that I can’t shake :/ see what happens .- 3,610 replies
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We gotta get through the cutter on the 9th, then see how far west and south the cold dumps around the 11th, but after that we should be in full tracking between 13-20th and beyond .
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Off runs can be blips, and let’s hope eps is, but with how we run I fully expect 12z runs to be a disaster for 95. Would suck, but at least the pattern looks decent rest of month .
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6z EPS does go to 144 hours, it’s the OP that only goes to 90. .
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Yep, I could see that coming after the OP. Only using the control because it tends to just follow OP at this range. The H5 almost looks identical to last nights CMC. I really really hope this was just a blip run. I really wanted to discount cmc and Ukie, but hard to now… .
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End of 6z euro vs 00z. Higher heights out in front because of the confluence ticking N, probably would have seen it bump N a little bit .
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Ukie looks like a disaster. Def don’t want a LP at this location .
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GFS has sped this event up like 12 hours compared to when it was coming on yesterdays runs .
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Wouldn’t trust the cmc with a 10 foot pole right now. Looks like it’s taking a step towards euro/gfs progression. Give it another day or so .
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Last night in our league, guy was 1% to win down 33 or whatever in the championship. He had Jordan Love left only. He won. If he can do it then we can get a snowstorm. 95 gonna have BL issues, we always do. I doubt we see a GFS all snow event unless we get support from other models fast. Just praying cmc/Ukie solutions are wrong. Cya at 00z .
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It’s cause there’s prob a decent amount that are too far NW. majority still solid though. .
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You want the GFS here at this range historically. .
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GFS kind of looks like a little weaker and more progressive version of last nights 00z Euro. Cmc seems lost, but can’t discount it. Not a good consensus suite so far lol .
